After a quick international break, the Premier League returns for Matchday 30. The season is heating up and the title race is down to three. Liverpool and Arsenal are tied on points with Manchester City just a point behind. Hold onto your seats because things are about to get interesting!
That said, I am back with another Premier League Betting Power Rankings. These are not your typical power rankings; these rankings give two bets from each game and rank my top five of the week.
Newcastle vs West Ham (Saturday, 8:30 AM ET)
Bet 1: Newcastle ML & Over 1.5 Goals (+105)
Bet 2: Newcastle 1H –0.5 Corner Spread (-135)
On paper, this match might seem like a home run for Newcastle. However, if you want to get down with them winning outright -120 isn’t the price you should be paying. With 64% wins at home and an average match score being 3.57. Bet Newcastle ML & Over 1.5 Goals (+105) for more value.
Newcastle should play this entire match on the front foot. Starting strong is important if they want to make a late push up the table. West Ham have no issues absorbing pressure. Newcastle 1H –0.5 Corner Spread (-135) is the bet for me.
Chelsea vs Burnley (Saturday, 11:00 AM ET)
Bet 1: Cole Palmer TSOA -143
Bet 2: Chelsea –1.5 (-122)
Chelsea at home have improved tremendously this season. They have won five of the last six matches they played at Stamford Bridge, with their lone loss coming to Wolves. They have two clean sheets in those matches but have only won one by multiple goals. However, it’s hard to get excited about backing Burnley at any point this season. Chelsea –1.5 (-122) would be my first suggestion.
While the first bet isn’t a bet I’m locking in, I am without a doubt betting on Cole Palmer to Score or Assist a Goal at –143. If you want better odds you can parlay it with Over 1.5 goals. Burnley are conceding 2.17 goals per contest and Palmer has scored or assisted in three straight matches.
Sheffield United vs Fulham (Saturday, 11:00 AM ET)
Bet 1: Over 2.5 Goals (-150)
Bet 2: Fulham –0.75 (-110)
Over 2.5 Goals (-150) has hit in 86% of Sheffield United’s matches played at Bramall Lane this season. While the number drops to 64% for Fulham away from home, this match should feature at least three goals.
Paying –140 for Fulham moneyline on the road is a tough ask. I think I’d be more comfortable betting Fulham –0.75 (-110). While Fulham have not been great away from home, Sheffield United have only earned a point in four out of 14 matches.
Nottingham Forest vs Crystal Palace (Saturday, 11:00 AM ET)
Bet 1: Both Teams to Score (-118)
Bet 2: Eberechi Eze 4+ Shots (+250)
Since Oliver Glasner has taken over, Palace has seen BTTS (-118) in two out of three. Since Nuno Espirito took over at Nottingham Forest, BTTS has hit in nine out of 19 matches. Neither team keeps clean sheets. So, I think 1-1 is the start for this match.
Eberechi Eze 4+ Shots (+250) has a massive price. He’s finally healthy and they are playing against a Forest side who are allowing upwards of 19 shots per game.
Bournemouth vs Everton (Saturday, 11:00 AM ET)
Bet 1: Bournemouth Team Total Over 1.5 (-102)
Bet 2: Ashley Young to be Booked +225
This is likely a bet that I won’t be placing, but I’d have to imagine Bournemouth Team Total Over 1.5 (-102) has value on it. The Cherries have scored two or more goals in 12 of their last 20 matches.
Everton like to play physically, especially against teams who want to press. They are averaging 2.36 bookings per contest and Ashley Young (+225) is a prime candidate to be booked for the Toffees.
Tottenham vs Luton (Saturday, 11:00 AM ET)
Bet 1: Both Teams to Score, Over 2.5 Goals, & Son Shot on Target (-118)
Bet 2: Luton Town +2 (-113)
The total for this match is set at 4.0. Betting the under is dangerous, and betting the over sounds mad. I like both teams to score, but the price is nuts. Adding over 2.5 goals to it still doesn’t move the needle. But if you add Son Heung-min’s shot on target to the parlay you get playable odds. Son is –110 to score, he better hit the frame against a Luton side who struggle defensively and allow forwards to get in behind.
Luton Town +2 (-113) might end up being a push, but regardless of how many goals Luton Town let in they very rarely get beat by more than two. Three would be outrageous.
Aston Villa vs Wolves (Saturday, 1:30 PM ET)
Bet 1: Ollie Watkins 2+ SOT +144
Bet 2: Aston Villa Moneyline (-150)
Aston Villa’s form at home has dipped significantly. They have lost three of their last five and seem to be searching for consistency. That doesn’t bother me much this weekend. I like Aston Villa Moneyline (-150). It’s juiced but they are playing against a Wolves side who will be without Pedro Neto, Hee-Chan Hwang, and possibly Matheus Cunha. In a match that will demand goal efforts, I have to fade the team with their attacking talent out for the week.
Another reason why I like Aston Villa is Ollie Watkins. I’m backing Ollie Watkins to get two or more shots on target at +144. Wolves will look to play on the counter, but in transition they allow the opposition to get in behind.
Brentford vs Manchester United (Saturday, 4:00 PM ET)
Bet 1: Over 3 Goals (-112)
Bet 2: Ivan Toney AGS +150
If history repeats itself, goals will be scored. Of the last seven matches between the two at GTech Stadium, there has been 30 goals scored; 4.3 goals per game. Yeah, give me Over 3 Goals (-112).
Manchester United have a lot of injuries in the midfield and back line. With Brentford playing at home, I am going to bet on Ivan Toney’s Anytime Goal Scorer (+150).
Liverpool vs Brighton (Sunday, 9:00 AM ET)
Bet 1: Liverpool –1.5 (+105)
Bet 2: Liverpool –2.75 Corner Handicap (-115)
Liverpool find themselves in a must-win situation against a Brighton team who don’t have much to play for. At Anfield, Liverpool are unbeaten in 26 Premier League matches. They are scoring 2.71 goals and only conceding 0.86. I love them to win by two or more. Give me Liverpool –1.5 (+105).
Liverpool should dominate in possession. Betting Liverpool –2.75 Corner Handicap (-115) is a must with them winning 10 out of 13 home corner counts by three or more.
Manchester City vs Arsenal (Sunday, 11:30 AM ET)
Bet 1: Manchester City Moneyline (-105)
Bet 2: Phil Foden 3+ Shots +150
The best bet for this match is Manchester City Moneyline (-105). Right now Arsenal are playing like the best team in the Premier League. However, the Gunners could be without Gabriel, Martinelli and Saka. None of them have trained so far this week.
I also like Phil Foden 3+ Shots (+150). This is just a play on the number here. Arsenal only allow nine shots per match, but with City on the front foot and Foden averaging 3.32 shots per 90, I like the value we are getting.
