Once again, we open the Premier League history books and find the best possible trends for Matchday 3. Last week, Manchester United failed to find the back of the net, pushing our Tasty Trends record to 1-1. If you want to keep up with all my betting action, follow me on Twitter.
This week, we are focusing on the best trends from Manchester City.
Sheffield United vs. Manchester City
Tasty Trends Record: 1-1 (+0.15 units)
Manchester City Tasty Trends
- Manchester City have kept a clean sheet in five straight against Sheffield United
- Manchester City have clean sheet wins in back-to-back matches
- Last season, Erling Haaland scored against every bottom-half except for in three matches: Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, Leeds
- Haaland scored at least two goals in six of those matches
Manchester City aren’t stock-piling clean sheet trends, especially late in a season when they have the league title wrapped up. However, against Sheffield United, they have seen a ton of success. Keeping clean sheets in five straight against the Blades is almost enough to blind bet this. However, more must be said before firing away at our first bet.
City have been smothering to start the season. Not only did they start the season with back-to-back clean sheets, but they also have the xGA numbers to back it up. Against Burnley, they had an xGA of 0.33 and an xGA of 0.29 against Newcastle.
In the match against Burnley, they dominated possession and limited Burnley to just six shots and only one shot on target.
The same happened against Newcastle, only allowing seven shots with one on target.
Against Sheffield United, I’d be surprised to see the Blades find the back of the net. Outside of a worldie from Gustavo Hamer, they haven’t seemed to have much life in front of net. They had an xG of around 0.5s in both matches, with 15 combined shots and just four on target.
The Blades are second to last in shot-creating actions per 90 and bottom fourth in attacking third touches. It’s hard to score goals without attacking third touches. So let’s bet Manchester City to win to nil (-140).
Will Erling Haaland Score?
Betting Haaland to score is generally a profitable proposition. This is especially true against struggling clubs. As the trends suggest, he terrorizes bottom-half clubs. Betting him at -180 isn’t something I love or would recommend. However, if you look at other markets like a wincast (-160) or for him to score multiple goals (+250). You’d likely have to look elsewhere with the -180 price tag for him to score or -160 for the wincast. I’m personally betting Erling Haaland to Score 2+ Goals (+250).
Bets: Manchester City to win to nil (-140), Haaland to Score 2+ Goals (+250)
