The story that is receiving the most attention in the WNBA right now is one that has nothing to do with how tight the MVP race is shaking out to be or how games of consequence for playoff seeding are going to most likely run until the final day of the regular season.
The top WNBA story has been about how one of the same bad faith actors who previously declared for the WNBA draft as a joke amid the debate about the participation of trans athletes in women’s basketball attended a game between the Sky and the Fever on Sunday night.
It also isn’t lost on me that this game is now the third most watched WNBA regular game ever since the league’s inaugural season.
— NBC Sports PR (@NBCSportsPR) August 26, 2026
“People want to do a publicity stunt to kind of ride our wave and get the high from the platform that we have,” New York Liberty forward and players union Vice President Breanna Stewart said about the incident. “But it’s more than that. We have a lot more than that in this league, and everybody knows that.”
With just days until the WNBA goes on a three-week pause for the FIBA World Cup that will run from September 4-13 in Berlin, Germany, the following are storylines across the league that legitimize the W rather than belittle it.
And as Stewart said, there’s a lot more to the WNBA. This also doesn’t include the fact that there was a new glitter-breathing dragon team mascot named Rose introduced in Portland to represent the Fire. Anyway, let’s dive in.
The playoff picture, parity and the tankathon
The Dallas Wings clinched the final playoff spot after defeating the Portland Fire decisively 96-78 on Tuesday night. This represents a break in the league’s status quo. Typically the eight playoff teams are decided just days before the playoffs start. But this season, the eight playoff teams have been decided around a month before the season’s end.
Since the 2021 season, typically final playoff spots have been clinched within at most five days before the playoffs and at least three days before the playoffs.
The reason for the playoff teams being set weeks before the postseason might be the way that the WNBA schedule is set up this year—the three week FIBA break during the final month of the season— or due to the fact that there are 15 teams in the league this year, the most since 2002.
But while all the playoff teams are set, the seeding is far from decided, which is where the discussion regarding league parity trickles back in. Back in June, I examined exactly why there was so much league wide parity. Over two months later the eight playoff teams have records with winning percentages of 0.590 or above.
As of now when it comes to the seeding, the Minnesota Lynx are in their own world at No.1 and are four games ahead of the Golden State Valkyries. Meanwhile Golden State has three teams in the Aces, Dream and Fever trailing closely behind with at most two games between the No.2 seed and the No. 5 seed.
Just a half a game separates No. 6 through 8 and just a game and a half separates the No.5 Fever and No.6 Liberty. Games between now and the FIBA break and the four games following the break are going to decide all of the first round postseason matchups.
On the opposite side of the spectrum, there are teams competing to have the best draft lottery odds. After all of the injuries the Toronto Tempo had endured, their front office decided to change direction with eyes on being in position to land a top talent in 2027.
Connecticut’s win over Chicago brings Toronto just a smidge closer to the top odds for the Draft lottery, but Chicago (Washington) is right on their heels.
— chelsea leite (@chelsealeite) August 26, 2026
Yet for Toronto, their games weigh just a little more give 1-yr odds vs 2-year odds.
Should be interesting against Seattle pic.twitter.com/rIxcsifEg9
The Connecticut Sun, who will move and become the Houston Comets in 2027, still have the best odds for the No.1 pick right now. The Sun also have the second most difficult strength of schedule remaining according to tankathon.com.
Where will DeWanna Bonner end up?
Some news that not many expected came on Monday when the Phoenix Mercury announced that they reached a contract buyout with 2x champion and 3x sixth player of the year DeWanna Bonner.
“We worked out a buyout agreement that gives her the opportunity to chase a title in what could be her final postseason,” Mercury general manager Nick U’Ren said in the team’s press release.
Richard Cohen of Her Hoop Stats reported that Bonner’s buyout with the Mercury is $451,220, over 90% of her original $500,000 one year deal she signed in April. If Bonner is claimed off waivers, that new team would take on her contract and the buyout disappears, but most likely she will become an unrestricted free agent.
As Annie Costabile wrote at The Athletic, the Mercury also benefit from making a move like this. Phoenix can continue to evaluate talent for the 2027 season between now and the final day of the regular season on September 24, especially with Bonner’s roster spot open. On Tuesday the Mercury announced that they signed Saylor Poffenbarger to a 7-day contract. Poffenbarger is an undrafted wing who the Sky signed previously to a hardship contract after she spent training camp with the Minnesota Lynx.
Back to Bonner, there are a handful of contenders that would make sense for the 6X All-Star. The first team that comes to mind is the Las Vegas Aces, who could be without A’ja Wilson’s front court partner NaLyssa Smith after she went down with a non-contact knee injury this past Sunday.
Another team that would make sense is Atlanta Dream, who could use more experience and scoring coming off their bench especially when center Brionna Jones hasn’t played since she left the Dream’s August 13 game against the Sun with a left leg injury.
The big question for both teams will be how can either team satisfy the salary cap when it comes to adding Bonner.
According to Her Hoop Stats, the Aces are -$109,512 below the salary cap because they added Japanese guard Mai Yamamoto as their injury replacement contract since rookie Janiah Barner is out for season. The Dream, however, have $190,663 left in cap space but don’t have the roster spot. Atlanta would have to cut a player.
The great MVP debate
There are two conversations right now about which individual player should win the award in addition to which players should be considered and get votes for the award. To be clear, voting for MVP is determined by media voters listing their top five players with the first place player earning the most points and the fifth place player earning the least amount of votes. The winner of MVP is determined by who has the most points rather than most first place votes.
The two front runners are perennial MVP Wilson and Lynx rookie Olivia Miles. There are strong cases for both with Wilson’s statistics and two-way dominance still reigning supreme in 2026. Meanwhile the case for Miles rests on the fact that she has defeated Wilson twice in the Lynx’s two previous matchups against the Aces.
When it comes to who else will get votes, there’s also debate there too. The Indiana Fever have the best offense in the league. Which player is most responsible for that and should be in the MVP race? While Caitlin Clark scores and distributes, giving her an argument for how much she really contributes to that offense, Kelsey Mitchell’s has just been way more efficient. And the Fever have their highest net, offensive and defensive ratings with Mitchell on the floor instead of Clark.
And then there’s Paige Bueckers and Stewart, the individual players who have kept their respective teams afloat, carrying them during moments of adversity throughout the 2026 seasons. Both players will finish the 2026 season presumably in the top ten in both scoring and total win shares.
Where does a WNBA defense need to be in 2026?
And finally, a storyline that piqued my interest ever since it was clear that offense would be up: how good do team defenses need to be to win a championship in 2026?
On one end of the spectrum are the Indiana Fever and the New York Liberty, who both have top four ranked offenses but then have defenses rated in the bottom seven of the league.
Fever head coach Stephanie White clearly understands that their defense needs to be better. Her goal is for the Fever’s defense to be between fifth and seventh best. They currently sit at 11th, less than one full point behind that seventh spot.
New York Liberty head coach Chris DeMarco is still aiming for his team to be process oriented, especially with the caveat that the team’s best defender Leonie Fiebich just returned to the floor after seven weeks away after dealing with a left foot injury.
“We’re not really looking at rankings in that sense,” he said. “We got to win, and the biggest thing is winning. And defensively, we’ve got to continue to make strides and make sure we understand going forward, especially as a playoffs approach, how we’re going to play defensively and have a comfort zone with how we’re doing it.”
And then on the other side of the spectrum are the Golden State Valkyries, a team that has the best defense in the league but only has the eighth best offense. The Valkyries defeated the Lynx, the team with the best net rating league wide on Tuesday night in a game where they scored 80 points but held the Lynx to 66 points, a season low.
How great does a team’s defense need to be to get to the WNBA finals in 2026, and, is it possible for a defense to be too great?
These are two questions that I look forward to answering in the next couple of months.
