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It’s hard to believe but March is here and that means college basketball conference tournaments. Most of the mid-major conferences tip off this week and there are teams bettors will want to keep an eye on.
Next week, I’ll have my best bets to win the power conference tournaments but for now, here are five strong mid-major teams that could cause havoc during March Madness.
Odds are opening lines courtesy of PointsBet
Murray State Racers (28-2) - Ohio Valley
The best mid-major team this season not named Gonzaga is Murray State. Since the Zags can’t really be considered a mid-major program in 2022, let’s give the Racers the top spot.
Murray State’s two losses this season came before Christmas and one was at Auburn. Since then, the Racers have rattled off 18 straight, including two blowout wins over Belmont - the No. 2 seed in the Ohio Valley tournament.
Murray State isn’t your typical mid-major NCAA Tournament team. The Racers rank 46th in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.
Led by 6-10 forward KJ Williams (18.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG) and guard Tevin Brown (16.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG), Murray State features a well-balanced offense and an aggressive defense that causes a lot of turnovers The Racers are also one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the country, ranking 13th in that category.
Murray State is safely in the big dance, so the Racers don’t have the pressure of winning the Ohio Valley tournament. Most projections have Murray State on the 8-9 line for the NCAA Tournament. The Racers will be a popular bet in Round 1 but the value will come in the next game.
Trust me, no top seed wants to play the Racers in the second round. Murray State has the ingredients to not only cover the spread, but send a No. 1 seed home early.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits (27-4) - Summit League
The #SummitMBB Tournament Bracket! pic.twitter.com/fzUE4kq9jx
— Mid-Major Madness (@mid_madness) February 27, 2022
Assuming South Dakota State wins the Summit League tournament, you will be hearing a lot about the Jackrabbits over the next two weeks. South Dakota State will be the trendy pick to reach the Sweet 16 with the talking heads on TV.
All the love for South Dakota State is justified. The top seed in the Summit League went a perfect 18-0 in conference play. What makes the Jackrabbits dangerous in the NCAA Tournament is this is one of the top shooting teams in the country.
South Dakota State ranks 13th in offensive efficiency, first in effective field goal percentage, first in three-point field goal percentage, and 10th in two-point field goal percentage. Every player on the Jackrabbits’ roster shoots over 35 percent from three with eight hitting at least 40 percent. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that before.
Another thing that makes South Dakota State so tough to defend is they don’t rely on just one player. Baylor Scheierman (16.2 PPG) and Douglas Wilson (16.0 PPG) lead an offense that has five players averaging more than nine points per game. Scheierman is one of the top guards in the country and the kind of player who can lead his team to a couple of wins in the tournament.
While South Dakota State is deadly on offense, its defense and rebounding could prevent a first-round upset. The Jackrabbits rank 214th in defensive efficiency, 259th in defending three-pointers, and 309th in offensive rebounding percentage. Those weaknesses were exposed in a 104-88 loss to Alabama back in November.
South Dakota State is a big favorite to win the Summit League tournament but keep in mind they beat No. 2 seed North Dakota State by just four points in both meetings this season. If the Jackrabbits do make the tournament, they will likely be a 12-seed.
While they can certainly pull a classic 12-5 upset, I really think it’s dependent on the draw. An athletic team that can pound the boards will give the Jackrabbits problems. Think UConn or Houston. A good matchup for South Dakota State would be Ohio State or Providence.
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Missouri State Bears (22-9) - Missouri Valley
This season has been WILD.
— MVC Basketball (@ValleyHoops) February 27, 2022
Ready for more at Arch Madness?
Here's the bracket 👇 pic.twitter.com/nxwax2GOem
The Missouri Valley is loaded with good teams this year. Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Loyola Chicago, Drake, and Bradley could all win Arch Madness and earn a trip to the NCAA Tournament. I think Missouri State is interesting though because of its draw.
I bet the Bears to win the Missouri Valley regular season title and they came up a game short. Missouri State lost three conference games by 10 points and a one-point loss to eventual champion Northern Iowa proved to be the difference. However, getting the No. 2 seed in the MVC tournament may prove to be a blessing in disguise for the Bears.
Missouri State ended up in the much easier side of the bracket. Northern Iowa, Loyola, and Bradley all have to fight it out in the top half of the bracket, while the Bears just have to deal with the winner of Drake-Southern Illinois to earn a spot in the title game.
If Missouri State does reach the NCAA Tournament, it will be dangerous. The Bears are an experienced team with two star players in 6-5 guard Isiaih Mosley (20.0 PPG) and 6-9 forward Gaige Prim (16.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG). The duo leads a high-scoring team that ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency and 21st in effective field goal percentage.
Odds to win the MVC Tournament weren’t up yet but I’d strongly consider backing Missouri State once they get released. The Bears just missed out on the regular season title but have a clear path to get into the tournament’s championship game where you will have an opportunity to hedge your bet.
If Missouri State does reach the NCAA Tournament, they will be a live sleeper to make the Sweet 16 in the right bracket.
Chattanooga Mocs (24-7) - Southern Conference
🚨BRACKET RELEASE🚨
— Southern Conference (@SoConSports) February 28, 2022
The 2022 @InglesAdvantage Southern Conference Men's Basketball Championship bracket has been released😤
🔗https://t.co/fUdMQ9UXzv pic.twitter.com/sF56o0XjRQ
Chattanooga is a team I identified as a potential Sweet 16 sleeper back in November. The Mocs haven’t been as dominant as teams like Murray State and South Dakota State, although they have the recipe to be a tough out in March.
Chattanooga has three star players in Malachi Smith (20.3 PPG), David Jean-Baptiste (14.6 PPG), and Silvio De Sousa (11.2 PPG), making the Mocs one of the most talented mid-majors in the country. Chattanooga also has above average size for a mid-major and is strong on the boards, ranking 42nd in offensive rebounding percentage.
One of the things that makes Chattanooga dangerous in the NCAA Tournament is it plays at a slow pace. The Mocs rank 288th in adjusted tempo and 317th in average offensive possession length. If Chattanooga gets a lead, it could frustrate a higher seed in the second half by limiting possessions. We saw this with Texas and Abilene Christian last year.
A couple of weeks ago, Chattanooga was in the discussion for an at-large bid. However, back-to-back home losses to UNC Greensboro and VMI put an end to that dream. The Mocs need to win the Southern Conference tournament to get in and it won’t be easy with No. 2 Furman lurking. Chattanooga swept the Paladins this season but the two games were decided by a total of eight points.
Chattanooga is projected to be a 13-seed in the NCAA Tournament and I still like them to make some noise. If the Mocs draw a team like Illinois or Ohio State in Round 1, I like their chances of pulling an upset.
Towson Tigers (23-7) - Colonial Athletic
The CAA tournament brackets aren’t set yet because the regular season ends on Monday. However, I wanted to mention Towson because the Tigers are a team I’ve backed a lot this season and will likely be undervalued if they make the Field of 68.
Towson sits a half game back of surprising UNC Wilmington in the CAA, but I believe they are clearly the top team in the conference. The Tigers are 14-2 over their last 16 games and that includes a 79-55 win at UNC Wilmington.
Towson is a strong offensive team led by guards Cameron Holden (13.6 PPG) and Nicolas Timberlake (14.4 PPG). The Tigers rank 32nd in offensive efficiency and are one of the top rebounding teams in the country. The Tigers rank eighth in offensive rebounding percentage and 98th in defensive rebounding percentage, a key metric in determining if a mid-major team can compete with bigger schools in March.
Towson will be the favorites to win the CAA tournament but if you can get the Tigers at plus money, I would grab it. The CAA is pretty deep but Towson closed the regular season strong and I think that continues into the tournament.
If they earn a ticket to the dance, Towson will likely be a 15th seed, so a first round upset is unlikely. Although, the Tigers will be one of the most dangerous lower-seeded seeds in the tournament. Towson lost by 11 at Ohio State earlier this season and held its own against a good San Francisco team before falling 71-61.
I like the Tigers’ chances to cover a big number in Round 1 if they make the field. Either way, I’ll be backing Towson to win the CAA tournament at anything +125 or higher.
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