Vaughn Dalzell breaks down two Big 12 games, a play on one home team and one road team. It’s Baylor vs Oklahoma State and Iowa State vs West Virginia.
Baylor (PK) at Oklahoma State (PK): O/U 142.0
This should be the game of the night as Baylor’s last five games have all been thrillers to watch.
Keyonte George (16.3 ppg) is out for the Baylor Bears after getting injured in the first half versus Texas, but the Bears rallied around the rest of the team and spread out the scoring.
Oklahoma State is without Avery Anderson, who is their best defender and since he’s been ruled out for the season, the Cowboys have allowed 86.3 points per game and went 0-4 against Kansas, TCU, West Virginia and Kansas State.
Oklahoma State has lost seven-straight at home versus Baylor and dropped their only meeting this year 74-58 at Baylor earlier in the season.
The Cowboys are 5-3 at home in Big 12 play with losses versus Kansas, Kansas State and Texas. Oklahoma State is shooting 63.3% from the free-throw line at home in conference play, turning the ball over 19.4% of the time and are one of the lower offensive efficiency teams, along with offensive rebounding.
Baylor’s offense is ranked No. 2 in the country for adjusted efficiency and leads the Big 12 in offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage (52.3%), turnover percentage (17%) and three-point percentage (37.5%). The Bears are one of the best offenses in the country and I am not sure the Oklahoma State defense will survive that.
This is Baylor’s final road game of the regular season and they lost their past two road games at Kansas and Kansas State. The Bears haven’t lost three-straight Big 12 road games since the 2018 season.
I took Baylor on the ML at -110 odds and would go out to -130. I don’t think Oklahoma State should make the tournament. Despite this being a desperation spot for the Cowboys, the Bears also don’t want to drop three-straight road games entering the Big 12 Tournament.
Pick: Baylor ML (1u)
West Virginia at Iowa State (-4): O/U 134.0
Iowa State has lost three-straight and seven of its past nine games, but this is a great buy low spot.
West Virginia is currently on ATS road stretches of 1-4 and 3-7 in the last five and 10 games. The Mountaineers just covered at Kansas on Saturday, so this is a quick turnaround to Ames, Iowa in an attempt to cover two-straight away from Morgantown.
The Cyclones are a completely opposite paced team than the Jayhawks and arguably more physical in their slower tempo, so not having much time to game plan should be an issue for the Mountaineers.
West Virginia beat Iowa State 76-71 at home earlier this season and were up by 15 points at one point before the Cyclones made a comeback. Iowa State took a 60-57 lead with 9:45 remaining before losing the lead in the final minutes. WVU went 26-of-31 from the free-throw line (83.9%) and 8-of-19 from three (42.1%) in that game.
WVU is 1-7 on the road in Big 12 games and shooting 30.5% from three and 67.9% from the free-throw line in conference, On defense, WVU surrenders a 38.4% three-point defense and 53% from two-point range.
It’s hard to win on the road in the Big 12 and West Virginia is no Baylor. I like the Cyclones to break their three-game losing streak in its final home game of the season. This being a revenge game against the road-tested and short-rest Mountaineers is the cherry on top.
I played the Cyclones on the spread at -3.5 (-120) and -4 (-110). There are -4.5’s (-105) popping up, so grab the best number possible as Iowa State attempts to break its losing streak and goes for two-straight home wins over West Virginia.
Pick: Iowa State -4 (1u)
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