Gonzaga (-8.5) vs. USC
The 29-0 Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the USC Trojans for a chance at the Final Four. The spread is set at -8.5 in favor of Gonzaga, which is interesting considering West Virginia is the only team in the nation to keep the final score within 10 points of the Bulldogs this season.
Gonzaga has only played one top 25 defense all season and that was versus Kansas in the opening game of the year. The Bulldogs won that contest, 102-90. Gonzaga leads the nation in points per game (91.8) and owns the No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency in the nation (126.3).
Both teams focus on scoring inside the three-point line. Gonzaga scores 57.3% of its points from inside the arc, ranking 29th in the nation. USC ranks 42nd with 55.7% of its points from two.
The Bulldogs allow 54.9% of their opponents’ points to come from two (29th-most). The Trojans only allow 50.4% of their opponents points (193rd) to come from two, but a majority from three to offset that (33%, 90th).
Gonzaga allows 29.4% (222nd) of its opponents’ points to come from beyond the arc. Their opponents also shoot 32.1% from three compared to USC’s opponents hitting 33.3% for the season.
Going off that, scoring from beyond the three-point line, both teams rank 295th and 305th overall in attempts. The Trojans average 18.1 threes per game (299th) and the Bulldogs 20.4 (222nd) on the season. Over the last three games, all NCAA Tournament contests, Gonzaga is averaging 24.3 triples compared to USC’s 17.7. [[ad:athena]]
The Trojans are hitting a blistering 50.3% from three in the tournament and the Bulldogs allowed 34%.USC does shoot 36.3% from three (60th) and Gonzaga 37.3% (29th) on the season. They both simply do not attempt many threes. As well as USC has shot versus Drake, Kansas and Oregon, Gonzaga is a different animal.
Here is a stat comparison for Gonzaga and USC in the NCAA Tournament. Besides the Trojans three-point percentage, points allowed per game and blocks per game, the Bulldogs lead in every other category.
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Gonzaga is one-of-three teams to rank top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency. They will take on USC’s newly implemented zone defense. The zone has been successful at limiting its opponents from three in the Trojans’ NCAA Elite 8 run. USC allowed 56, 51 and 68 points in the three games.
USC will attempt to slow down Gonzaga, limit interior shots and force more threes. If Gonzaga is hitting from deep, this will be another double-digit win, especially if the Bulldogs lead by six or more at half.
USC has not had to play from behind much the past five games. Versus Colorado, they went down 22-7 early and lost 72-70 in the Pac-12 Tournament. Against Drake, USC trailed 26-23 with 8:09 left in the first half and never looked back winning, 72-56. If USC trails early to Gonzaga, chances are that hole will be too deep to climb out.
USC Head Coach Andy Enfield is 10-0 ATS (100%) in NCAA Tournament for his career. That streak can only last so long and a team like Gonzaga could be the outlier we look at next season when the Trojans are back in the tournament. As a matter of fact, I am banking on as I will take Gonzaga -8.5 on PointsBet.
As mentioned previously, Gonzaga has only won one game by less than 10 points this season. As great as USC has played in the NCAA Tournament, I think the Trojans may come out erratic against Gonzaga to start the game. Not many teams can maintain playing at Gonzaga’s pace, while playing a rock solid zone defense every possession.
Gonzaga will break that zone at points throughout the game. I would not be surprised to see USC resort to more man-to-man once the Bulldogs find their three-point stroke, whether that is in the first or second half. It is a Gonzaga and Baylor collision course and I am sticking to that.
Game Pick: Gonzaga -8.5 (1u)
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