Vaughn Dalzell shares his best bet in a showdown between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Creighton Blue Jays.
Iowa at Creighton (-12): O/U 164.0
Creighton returns most of its talent from last season and it’s shown how good this offense really is through two games. I have the Blue Jays ranked as my fourth-best team in the country and I have my opinion that Iowa will finish nowhere near the Top 25.
Iowa has two sophomores and four freshmen in its rotation this season. For a team that went 4-7 on the road last year and 1-4 on neutral courts compared to 14-3 at home, so road/neutral court games will be a problem again this season.
These teams play such identical paces and styles that a shootout is likely. I liked the Over 159.5 but that is 161.0 to 162.0 trending upwards, which is too much movement for me. Creighton was -10, which was a strong lean, but it’s out to -12 and beyond, which leaves us with my favorite way to attack this game -- The Blue Jay’s first-half team total.
Creighton put up 56 and 41 points in the first two halves of the season against Florida A&M and North Dakota State for 48.5 first-half ppg (T-13th). Iowa averages 52.5 ppg in the first half (3rd), but they have played North Dakota State and Alabama State who were a combined 21-43 a year ago, so not much better.
North Dakota State (32) and Alabama State (37) put up nice first-half totals on Iowa thus far and scored 67 and 68 on the Hawkeyes. Iowa was 296th out of 352 last season in scoring defense (74.7 PPG) and 237rd in first-half scoring defense (34.2).
Creighton can crush the rebounding department, as they hold a +23 margin, and Iowa is just +4, which is more opportunities for the Blue Jays. Give me the Creighton 1H Team Total Over 42.5 at -120 odds out to 43.5.
Pick: Creighton 1H Team Total Over 42.5 (1u)
*odds courtesy of BetMGM
Season Record: 5-0 (100%) +5 units
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