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(All odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
As we head into the second week of the bowl season, the Frisco Bowl will feature the Conference USA champions UTSA led by Frank Harris. They will take on the stout defense of the Mountain West runner-up, San Diego State.
Here’s a look at some of the players and matchups to watch, including the best bet if you’re looking for a rooting interest in Texas:
What: Frisco Bowl
Who: San Diego State (11-2, Mountain West 7-2) vs. UTSA (12-1, C-USA 8-1)
Where: Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX
When: Tuesday, December 21 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Opening Line: UTSA -2.5 (O/U 50)
Current Line: San Diego State -1.5 (O/U 49)
Most recent bowl result: San Diego State beat Central Michigan 48-11 in the 2019 New Mexico Bowl. UTSA lost to Louisiana 31-24 in the 2020 First Responders Bowl.
San Diego State at a glance: The Aztecs have gotten to this point thanks to their resilient defense by allowing just 19.46 points per game, ranking them 17th in the nation. Unfortunately, that defense could not hold off Utah State as the 6.5-point favorites were blown out 46-13 in the Mountain West Championship. You could call this team one-dimensional as their offense has not been particularly productive this season. The running game has been average thanks to Greg Bell, but whether it’s been Jordon Brookshire or Lucas Johnson behind center, their inconsistency at quarterback, which ranks 113th in pass success, has hindered them.
UTSA at a glance: The Roadrunners have been all that was advertised this season, as they were the third-to-last undefeated team in the FBS and capped it off with their first-ever Conference USA championship. The offense was led by Frank Harris, who has been a great dual-threat quarterback with 2,905 passing yards, 565 rushing yards, and 31 total touchdowns. Add in the dynamic running of Sincere McCormick, who finished fifth with 1,479 rushing yards, and you get the second-best offense in the C-USA and 15th in the country (37.8 PPG). But McCormick will skip this game after declaring for the NFL Draft while reports indicate the Roadrunners could be without up to 10 others for various reasons - causing the line to move toward SDSU.
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Key to the matchup: Whose strength will be the better of the two -- the UTSA offense or the SDSU defense? With UTSA’s McCormick opting out of the game, it’s going to be on Harris who will need to step up with both his legs and his arm. With his 66.6% completion rate and just five interceptions, he’s been able to move to the ball with the 19th best pass success rate, but San Diego State has been able to contain opposing passers as they’re 10th-best in not allowing pass success.
The Roadrunners are solid defensively, and they match up well against an Aztec offense that has struggled for much of the season. UTSA has been much better against the run this year, which is primarily what SDSU does with the 16th-highest run-play percentage in the country.
Best Bet: UTSA +1.5. The spread has been shrinking, as the Roadrunners opened at -2.5 and now they’re listed as slight underdogs. This will be another game where SDSU is going up against a good quarterback that can push the ball downfield. We saw Utah State’s Logan Bonner crack the code of scoring against this SDSU defense a couple of weeks ago, and UTSA can follow suit. The Aztecs are unfamiliar with someone lIke Harris, as he’s the first opposing quarterback with over 2,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards they’ve seen this season. The Roadrunners’ success is mainly due to the offensive line that has allowed a sack on just 3.6% of its plays. When Harris has a clear pocket he’s shown to make smart throws, but he also knows how to tuck it and run for positive yards. The Aztecs’ offense has been too inconsistent, especially in the passing game. If UTSA can get an early lead, SDSU does not have the ability to play catch up.
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