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Tune in Saturday, December 3rd and 17th at 11 AM to Noon on NBC Sports YouTube Channel for our College Football Conference Championship and Bowl Season shows. Eric Froton (@CFFroton) is hitting over 64% on the season and 10-3 on his best bets, while Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas) and myself (@VmoneySports) have been hitting between 55-60% over the last six weeks.
North Texas vs. UTSA (-9): O/U 69.5
Per Action Network, “Underdogs that failed to cover multiple games in a row have gone 19-4 ATS (82.6%) in their conference championship. They have covered by a gaudy average margin of 10.93 points. This trend applies to North Texas and North Carolina this weekend.”
Earlier in the season, North Texas and UTSA met and the Mean Green covered but lost. UTSA won 31-27 on Oct. 22 to avenge its loss last year to North Texas that cost the RoadRunners an undefeated season.
Teams that have met in the conference championship and earlier in the season have only gone 23-23 ATS (50%) in the past 46 games but 31 of those 46 teams (67.4%) improved their scoring margin in the conference championship, per the Action Network.
UTSA has won nine-straight games with four wins coming by single-digits, including the last outing versus UTEP. North Texas is live to win this game, so I will take them to cover at the +9 (-110) and play down down to +8.
Both teams are down a few players and I believe UTSA’s are more meaningful. I also played Austin Anne Over 217.5 Passing Yards (-115) but that line is now up to 228.5 (-125) on DraftKings and 238.5 (-115) on FanDuel.
Pick: North Texas +9 (1u)
USC (-2.5) vs. Utah: O/U 67.0
We have another matchup between teams that met earlier in the season.
Utah beat USC 43-42 in a very emotional game where Utah was honoring fallen students at home. The Utes needed a two-point conversion to win that game and it marked the only loss on USC’s season.
We have another exciting matchup at quarterback between the Heisman front-runner USC’s Caleb Williams and Utah’s Cameron Rising. In the previous meeting, Rising threw two touchdowns and ran three scores in with no interceptions.
USC’s defense will look to be opportune this time around as they rank 4th in the country with 27 turnovers gained/forced and the 1st-ranked turnover margin (+23). The next closest team in terms of turnover margin is Duke, Illinois and Kansas State (14), so USC’s defense has been better than its points per game indicates (26.3, 61st).
All of Utah’s three losses have come on the road to Florida, UCLA and Oregon. This game will be in Las Vegas and Utah will attempt to repeat as Pac-12 Champ. Utah beat Oregon 31-10 last season, securing the first Pac-12 championship in program history.
I doubt Utah repeats and knock off USC twice in the same season. I played USC’s ML at -145 odds.
I like the Trojans to overcome their previous loss to the Utes and throw its name in the hat for the College Football Playoff.
Per Action Network, “When the total is 65 or higher in a conference championship game, the Under is 15-9 (62.5%) in the past 24 games, which applies to USC-Utah and North Texas-UTSA.”
I lean the Under but the total was 68.5 and 69.0, before dropping to 67 and 66.5.
Pick: USC ML (1u)
Fresno State vs. Boise State (-3): O/U 54.5
Fresno State has won seven-straight games to clinch the MWC Championship berth, while Boise State won six of the past seven, dropping a last-second game to BYU.
These two met earlier in the season and Boise State won 40-20 at home.
That was Taylen Green‘s first game as the Boise State quarterback and the start of a fantastic run that not many people expected. Green recorded 20 total touchdowns and four interceptions this season, while Fresno’s quarterback, Jake Haener has 19 total touchdowns and three interceptions.
The defenses will be the key to this game and I like the Broncos defense more, which allows 17.8 points per game, ranking 9th in the country. Boise State gave up 23 or fewer points in every conference game for the first time since 1980.
Despite Haener not playing earlier versus Boise State, the Fresno State defense still gave up 40 points and Boise’s offense is much better now than Week 6. Take Boise State -3.
I lean the Under 54.5 as seven of the last nine MWC title games have gone Under.
Pick: Boise State -3 (1u)
UCF vs. Tulane (-4): O/U 56.5
This will be a fantastic game and another repeat of two teams that met in extremely close and exciting matchup.
UCF went to Tulane and won 38-31 earlier in the season. UCF’s quarterback John Rhys Plumlee recorded 308 total yards and three total touchdowns in that game, while Michael Pratt had 236 passing yards and four total touchdowns.
Both teams have arguably the best offenses and defenses in the AAC, so this is very-evenly matched game. We have a preseason futures ticket on UCF to win the conference at +380, so we are looking for an in-game hedge opportunity on Tulane with some points, while taking UCF +4 here.
I want to middle UCF +4 and get Tulane +3 or better, while sitting on our futures ticket.
Per Action Network, “Conference title favorites that have covered multiple games in a row have gone just 1-10 ATS against underdogs on multiple-game ATS losing streaks. This trend only applies to Tulane this week.
This game is in New Orleans, which benefits Tulane and why we see them laying -3 to -4. The winner of this game will secure a New Year’s Six Bowl as the winner gets the Group of Five bid to the Cotton Bowl.
I projected the Knights to be a 10-11 win team and I believe they still get there (9-3 now). I grabbed UCF +4 at -110 odds on BetMGM. I would play this down to +3.
Pick: UCF +4 (1u)
LEANS
Georgia 1H -10 (-110) vs. LSU
Purdue Team Total Over 17.5 (+110) vs. Michigan
North Carolina +7.5 vs. Clemson
North Texas vs UTSA Under 69.5 (-110)
USC vs Utah Under 67.0 (-110)
Boise State vs Fresno State Under 54.5 (-110)
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium College Football Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. Click here to learn more!
