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San Diego State (-7) at Nevada: O/U 36.0
Nevada is 0-5 ATS in the last five games, losing at Hawaii on a late Saturday night, 31-16.
The Wolfpack come back home to a San Diego State team that has a chance to make a legitimate run at the MWC Championship game. The Aztecs are coming off a bye week and make a substantial change in the previous 16-14 win versus Hawaii.
San Diego State switched quarterbacks and pivoted to Jalen Mayden who started the year as a linebacker for them!
He started the game versus Hawaii and slung the rock for 322 passing yards on 24-of-36 (66.7%) with one touchdown and no interceptions. Gerry Bohanon Jr.?
The Aztecs’ season-high for passing yards in game was 108 before that. Yea, they found their man. I am not sure Nevada will know what him them as San Diego State had an entire week off to work on the new offense with Mayden under center.
San Diego State plays Fresno State (2-4) next and UNLV (4-3) who is down a quarterback and running back, so the Aztecs could be 5-3 with three games remaining for a chance to finish the season with seven-straight wins and a MWC berth.
I think they could be one our ATS machines to finish the season with Mayden. It starts now.
I played San Diego State -7 at -105 odds at DraftKings. I think the Aztecs win by double-digits.
Pick: San Diego State -7 (1.5u)
Arizona State at Stanford (-3): O/U 54.5
This is an ultimate sandwich and letdown spot for the Stanford Cardinals, while it’s a get-up opportunity for Arizona State.
Arizona State is coming off a 45-38 win versus Washington and a had a bye week to prepare for this game, while Stanford went into South Bend and beat Notre Dame 16-14 as a +16.5 road underdog.
Stanford is coming off games vs USC, at Washington, at Oregon, vs Oregon State and at Notre Dame to now host Arizona State before going on the road to face UCLA -- the fourth ranked opponent in seven games.
That is a brutal stretch for the Cardinals, who have now covered two-straight but will be favorites for the second time all year. Stanford was a -40 favorite versus Colgate and won by 31.
The Cardinals have lost five out of the past seven games as a home favorite versus Pac-12 opponents. Overall, Stanford is 3-7 ATS (30%) in the past 10 as a favorite and as a home favorite versus any opponent.
I love this spot for an Arizona State team that was able to put up 397 total yards on Washington and hold Michael Penix to zero touchdown passes and one interception on 53 attempts.
Stanford lost 28-10 at Arizona State last season. The Sun Devils allowed Tanner McKee to toss 356 yards, but only one touchdown to three interceptions. I like Arizona State to get the “upset” win that no one sees coming.
I played Arizona State at +3 for -120 odds on DraftKings and sprinkled the ML at +120 odds.
Pick: Arizona State +3 (1u), Arizona State ML (0.25u)
Florida Atlantic (-4) at UTEP: O/U 50.5
We go back to fading FAU on the road.
The Owls are 2-5 ATS and on the ML (28.5%) as a road favorite since 2020, failing to win or cover in three-straight.
We faded FAU as a road favorite at North Texas and cashed that bet. The Owls also lost as a road favorite at Ohio earlier this season, but it doesn’t even matter if they’re a favorite or not.
On the road in general, FAU is 2-11 on the ML (15.3%) and 5-8 ATS (38.4%) since 2020.
UTEP is coming off a bye week, so they have had an extra week to prepare for this home matchup. The Miners are 6-1 ATS (83.3%) coming off a bye week in the last seven tries and all those games came as an underdog.
Since 2020 at home, UTEP is 7-2 on the ML (77.8%) and 5-4 ATS (55.5%). UTEP has gone 3-2 on the ML and ATS as a home underdog during that span -- two of UTEP’s three wins came at home this year.
FAU beat UTEP in Florida, 28-25 last season, despite the Owls getting out-gained 438-280 in total offense. That will not happen again.
Revenge will be on the mind of UTEP against an FAU defense that allows 38.0 points per game on the road. FAU will have a tough time stopping Gavin Hardison and this Miners running back duo.
Give me UTEP +4 at -115 odds on BetMGM and sprinkled the ML at +150 odds for 0.25 unit.
Pick: UTEP +4 (1u), UTEP ML (0.25u)
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Toledo (-7.5) at Buffalo: O/U 60.5
Let’s run it back on Buffalo as they continue to cover spreads.
Entering this game, Buffalo is 5-1-1 ATS (83.3%), covering and winning four-straight games.
On the other side, Toledo has covered three-straight and is 4-3 ATS (57.1%). Toledo has laid -6.5 or -7.5 in three-straight games, so this line holds no value for the road Rockets.
In this MAC series, Buffalo has won two-straight versus Toledo and in the past seven meetings, the Bulls have gone 5-2 ATS (71.4%), covering five of the past six, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Toledo has scored a ton, 38, 52 and 55 points in the past three games, but they struggled last week in the first half.
Toledo used a 24-0 shutout second-half to beat Kent State at home 52-31 after putting up 52 points at Northern Illinois and 38 points versus Central Michigan.
Kent State put up 231 rushing yards on Toledo last week and Buffalo watch closely enough, because the Bulls average 157.1 rushing yards per game could put up 200-plus.
Buffalo ran for 203 yards on UMass, had 280 rushing yards on Bowling Green and 201 rushing yards on Eastern Michigan in three of the past four games.
Both teams lean on the ground game and Buffalo has the better rush defense and passing offense of the two teams.
I think Buffalo could win this game outright and just might be the best team in the MAC.
I played the +7.5 at -115 odds on FanDuel and sprinkled the ML at +235 for 0.25 units.
Pick: Buffalo +7.5 (1u), Buffalo ML (0.25u)
Boise State at Air Force (-2.5): O/U 48.0
This spread moved from Air Force -3 to -2.5 and -1.5 over the course of the week and I think we all know why.
The books still undervalue Boise State after losing their offensive coordinator and starting quarterback in the same week. Since then, the Broncos have gone 2-0 ATS and 2-0 on the ML. For the whole season, Boise State is 2-3-1 ATS and 4-2 on the ML, so they are streaking right now.
After Boise State beat San Diego State by 22 points and Fresno State by 20 points, they now get a bye week for a road game at Air Force, which is also revenge off a 24-17 loss at home to Air Force last season.
However, this is the real reason.
Boise State has never come off a bye week as an underdog, but they have came off a bye week as the road team and destroyed the competition winning 16-straight games dating back to 2004, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Interestingly enough, Boise State is 28-1 on the ML in its last 29 games following a bye week dating back to 2001!
Boise State has the 19th-ranked rushing defense in the country (101.4 ypg) and Air Force runs the ball more than any other team in the country. The Falcons have 425 rushing attempts, 2,519 yards and 23 rushing TDs, which all rank first in the nation.
This will be a great matchup and whether or not Air Force can pass on Boise State remains to be seen.
I played Boise State +3 (-120) but now it’s +1.5 to +2.5. You can get the +2.5 for -115 on FanDuel.
I also played the ML at +110 for 0.25 unit. This is +1 or +1.5 on DraftKings.
Pick: Boise State +2.5 (1u), Boise State ML (0.25u)
Kansas State at TCU (-3.5): O/U 58.5
Kansas State has covered four-straight meetings versus TCU and six of the past seven. The Wildcats won three-straight against the Horned Frogs by at least seven points in all three and enter as an underdog versus top-10 ranked TCU.
The Wildcats are coming off a bye week and had two weeks to prepare for this game. This is a huge stretch for Kansas State as they take on TCU, Oklahoma State and Texas, three ranked teams, then Baylor, WVU and Kansas to wrap up the season.
TCU is coming off a emotional comeback 2-OT 43-40 win versus Oklahoma State after outlasting Kansas 38-31 the week prior. The Horned Frogs are an undefeated 6-0 and went back-to-back games where they could have lost.
This Kansas State’s play-style is a much different task than Kansas and Oklahoma State. If TCU gets slowed down, I don’t think they will be able to stop the Wildcats rushing attack. The is a tough matchup for either team where you can say TCU hasn’t played a defense as good as Kansas State’s and K-State hasn’t played an offense as good as TCU.
I hate backing Adrian Martinez but he and Deuce Vaughn could have a Saturday. The two have a combined 1,207 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. Martinez has yet to throw an interception as well.
It seems a lot of sharp are backing K-State to get the outright win. Both teams are 4-1-1 ATS on the season, but TCU is 0-1-1 ATS in the past two outings, pushing at -7 at Kansas and failing to cover -5 versus Oklahoma State.
Give me Kansas State +3.5 (-115) at TCU. The Wildcats are live to win this game outright.
Pick: Kansas State +3.5 (0.5u)
Rice (-3) at Louisiana Tech: O/U 57.0
Rice is 1-8 on the ML away from home since 2021, beating UAB last year as a 30-24 -- Rice was a +1129 underdog! ($10 won $112.9).
Rice has not been a road favorite since 2020 and are coming off a loss on the road at Florida Atlantic. Rice did cover the +4 at FAU and while the Owls are on a five-game cover streak -- I am not buying it.
The only game Rice was favored this season came against FCS McNeese State. Rice was -7 and won 52-10. McNeese is 1-5 this year.
Rice covered versus McNeese, Louisiana Lafayette, Houston, UAB and Florida Atlantic. Give me a break.
Louisiana Tech took a tough 47-27 loss at North Texas last week and come back home where they beat UTEP 41-31 two weeks ago. The Bulldogs are 2-0 ATS and on the ML at home this season and both covers came as a favorite.
The Bulldogs haven’t been a home underdog of +3 or less since 2017 and I am not sure they should be the underdog here. The Over has also hit in five-straight when Louisiana Tech is the home underdog and nine of the past 10.
I will take Louisiana Tech at +3 for -120 odds. I think they have a chance to win this game outright.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +3 (0.5u)
Iowa at Ohio State (-29.5): O/U 49.0
Iowa versus Ohio State! Get ready for a snoozer!
We will focus on the first quarter here because DraftKings has OSU -7 (-130), which I think is too good to pass up.
Iowa’s offense is putrid behind Spencer Petras. He has a 23.1 QBR and 939 passing yards with 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions through six games. The Hawkeyes offense literally ranks dead-last in yards per game (238.7), even behind UMass, Temple and Colorado State -- literally last.
Over the previous two games, Iowa managed a field goal versus Illinois in the first quarter, but did not score in the first-half versus Michigan.
Ohio State leads the country with 16.3 points per game in the first quarter and Iowa is 52nd with 6.2 ppg in the first quarter, plus 10 total points in the first quarter of two road games (At Illinois, Rutgers).
I like the chances Ohio State leads by at least seven points in the first 15 minutes and holds Iowa scoreless. CJ Stroud has 24 touchdowns to 3 interceptions, while the Buckeyes offense has only lost two fumbles through six games.
I played Ohio State 1Q -7 at -130 odds on DraftKings. This will likely be -7.5 or larger by kickoff.
Pick: Ohio State 1Q -7 (1u)
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