Lines in the table below are from the perspective of the home team. ATL (Adjusted Thor Line) is a system I devised for determining line value. ATL considers several factors in setting a line. A few have to do with market indicators like sharp action and steam moves. For this reason, ATL lines are fluid and change throughout the week as information arrives, just like the actual lines.
All other lines courtesy of PointsBet.
| Away | Home | PB Line | ATL | Day | EST |
| Marshall | Appalachian State | -7.5 | -7.4 | Thursday | 7:30 PM |
| Middle Tennessee | Charlotte | -2.5 | 4.6 | Friday | 6:30 PM |
| Wake Forest | Virginia | -4 | -2.3 | Friday | 7:30 PM |
| Liberty | Syracuse | 6 | 7.1 | Friday | 8:00 PM |
| UNLV | Fresno State | -31.5 | -28.2 | Friday | 10:00 PM |
| Boise State | Utah State | 9.5 | 10.9 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| Georgia | Vanderbilt | 34.5 | 36.6 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| Missouri | Boston College | 3 | -1.8 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| Bowling Green | Minnesota | -31 | -26.9 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| FIU | Central Michigan | -10 | -8.8 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| Ohio | Northwestern | -15 | -14.5 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| LSU | Mississippi State | 2.5 | -0.8 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| SMU | TCU | -10 | -8.9 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| Texas Tech | Texas | -9 | -11.0 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| Notre Dame | Wisconsin | -5.5 | -6.3 | Saturday* | 12:00 PM |
| Miami (OH) | Army | -8 | -10.2 | Saturday | 12:00 PM |
| UMass | Coastal Carolina | -35.5 | -35.3 | Saturday | 1:00 PM |
| San Jose State | Western Michigan | -3 | -4.1 | Saturday | 2:00 PM |
| Texas State | Eastern Michigan | -6 | -4.9 | Saturday | 2:00 PM |
| Toledo | Ball State | 4.5 | 10.2 | Saturday | 2:00 PM |
| Washington State | Utah | -14 | -13.8 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Kent State | Maryland | -14.5 | -15.3 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Wyoming | UConn | 29.5 | 30.5 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Clemson | NC State | 10 | 7.5 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Rutgers | Michigan | -18.5 | -17.9 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Colorado State | Iowa | -23 | -22.6 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Arkansas | Texas A&M | -5.5 | -6.6 | Saturday** | 3:30 PM |
| UTSA | Memphis | -3 | -1.8 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Louisville | Florida State | 2.5 | 0.8 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Illinois | Purdue | -11 | -13.3 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Iowa State | Baylor | 6.5 | 4.4 | Saturday | 3:30 PM |
| Georgia State | Auburn | -27 | -26.4 | Saturday | 4:00 PM |
| Kansas | Duke | -15.5 | -14.7 | Saturday | 4:00 PM |
| Arkansas State | Tulsa | -13.5 | -11.1 | Saturday | 5:00 PM |
| Buffalo | Old Dominion | 13 | 16.0 | Saturday | 6:00 PM |
| Louisiana | Georgia Southern | 13.5 | 14.6 | Saturday | 6:00 PM |
| UCLA | Stanford | 6 | 5.0 | Saturday | 6:00 PM |
| Tennessee | Florida | -20 | -13.3 | Saturday | 7:00 PM |
| Kansas State | Oklahoma State | -5.5 | -3.7 | Saturday | 7:00 PM |
| Kentucky | South Carolina | 5.5 | 3.9 | Saturday | 7:00 PM |
| North Texas | Louisiana Tech | -12 | -6.1 | Saturday | 7:00 PM |
| Nebraska | Michigan State | -5 | -3.4 | Saturday | 7:00 PM |
| Navy | Houston | -20.5 | -23.4 | Saturday | 7:00 PM |
| Southern Miss | Alabama | -45 | -40.7 | Saturday | 7:30 PM |
| North Carolina | Georgia Tech | 12 | 10.8 | Saturday*** | 7:30 PM |
| West Virginia | Oklahoma | -16.5 | -17.1 | Saturday | 7:30 PM |
| Akron | Ohio State | -49 | -49.8 | Saturday | 7:30 PM |
| Indiana | Western Kentucky | 9 | 6.1 | Saturday | 8:00 PM |
| Florida Atlantic | Air Force | -6 | 4.2 | Saturday | 8:00 PM |
| UAB | Tulane | -4 | -7.2 | Saturday | 8:00 PM |
| Troy | UL-Monroe | 23.5 | 26.2 | Saturday | 8:00 PM |
| Hawaii | NMSU | 16.5 | 19.8 | Saturday | 8:00 PM |
| New Mexico | UTEP | -2 | 1.4 | Saturday | 9:00 PM |
| California | Washington | -7.5 | -10.7 | Saturday | 9:30 PM |
| USF | BYU | -23 | -23.4 | Saturday | 10:15 PM |
| Colorado | Arizona State | -14.5 | -13.6 | Saturday | 10:30 PM |
| Arizona | Oregon | -28 | -28.8 | Saturday | 10:30 PM |
| Oregon State | USC | -13 | -13.4 | Saturday | 10:30 PM |
Neutral site games
*Chicago (Soldier Field)
**Arlington (AT&T Stadium)
***Atlanta (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
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Injury news
Purdue (-11) vs. Illinois
ATL: Purdue -13.3
Purdue WR David Bell is in concussion protocol. He was carted off the field in the fourth quarter of last Saturday’s loss at Notre Dame after landing face-down on the turf. Losing Bell for any amount of time would be devastating. Over 21 career games, he’s averaged just under eight catches and one touchdown per game.
Bell was already the fulcrum-point of this offense, and he became all the more so when starting RB Zander Horvath went under the knife to repair a broken fibula last week. With Horvath out 4-7 more weeks, the Boilermakers really need Bell to make a hasty recovery.
Meanwhile, Boilermakers HC Jeff Brohm has already said that QB Jack Plummer will start against Illinois. This became a question after Brohm yanked Plummer for Aidan O’Connell in the fourth quarter of the loss to the Irish.
But Plummer’s leash isn’t terribly long, and you shouldn’t be surprised if you see O’Connell again on Saturday. “Jack is our starter,” Brohm said. “We aren’t gonna hesitate to play multiple guys if we need to.”
Utah (-14) vs. Washington State
ATL: Utah -13.8
Wazzu freshman QB Jayden de Laura suffered a left knee injury in Saturday’s game against USC. After leaving the game, de Laura was seen on the sidelines limping around in a knee brace.
HC Nick Rolovich inserted QB Victor Gabalis following de Laura’s injury. Gabalis attempted 13 passes for only 19 yards for an eye-bleeding 1.5 YPC. Tennessee grad transfer Jarrett Guarantano started the season-opening upset loss to Utah State but suffered a hand injury in that game and hasn’t been seen since.
de Laura is clearly Wazzu’s best quarterback, and it’s not particularly close. If de Laura is out for an extended period, Wazzu’s offense, already floundering during the 1-2 start, is in deep trouble.
Oregon (-28) vs. Arizona
ATL: Oregon -28.8
Oregon junior EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux was inactive for Saturday’s win over Stony Brook with the left high-ankle sprain he suffered in the opener against Fresno State. There was no need to rush Thibodeaux back for an FCS opponent last week.
The thinking may be similar against Arizona in Oregon’s Pac-12 opener. The Wildcats lost to FCS Northern Arizona last week and have started 0-3 under new HC Jeff Fisch.
BYU (-23) vs. USF
ATL: BYU -23.4
BYU QB Jarren Hall was knocked out of last Saturday’s upset win over Arizona State on the Cougars’ final drive after taking a huge hit. Hall told reporters after the game that he “just got the wind knocked out of me” and that he will be fine for practice this week.
BYU isn’t likely to get as good of news on LB Keenan Pili, the team’s leading tackler. Pili suffered a knee injury against the Sun Devils. Per HC Kelani Sitake, Pili will undergo an MRI. As Pili looked on from the sidelines in the second half on crutches last Saturday, the Cougars immediately gave up 10 unanswered points to see a 21-7 lead cut to 21-17.
The Cougars have defied expectations in the post-Zach Wilson era by starting 3-0, all wins over Pac-12 schools. BYU didn’t allow more than 17 points in any of those games. That start has BYU ranked No. 15 in the Associated Press poll and No. 16 in the Coaches poll.
The superlative performance of what DC Ilaisa Tuiaki calls “our no-name defense” has been a revelation after the Cougs lost Khyiris Tonga, Zac Dawe, Bracken El-Bakri, Isaiah Kaufusi, Troy Warner, Chris Wilcox and Zayne Anderson over the offseason.
USC (-13) vs. Oregon State
ATL: USC -13.4
The Trojans had a wild weekend following the firing of former HC Clay Helton. USC traveled to Pullman, had plane issues on the tarmac, dug itself a 14-0 hole to begin the game… and then scored 45 consecutive points to win 45-14.
The comeback was spurred by true freshman QB Jaxson Dart, who came on for an injured Kedon Slovis (upper-body) in the first quarter after Slovis took multiple big hits early. USC got good news on Slovis on Sunday when X-rays and an MRI came back negative, confirming he’d avoided a serious injury.
USC expects Slovis back at practice this week. Which means he should be healthy for Saturday’s game. But after Dart threw for a USC QB debut record 391 yards along with four touchdowns against Wazzu, will interim HC Donte Williams stick with the veteran, or go with the youngster? As a true frosh, Slovis stole JT Daniels’ job following an injury, so this isn’t his first QB controversy rodeo.
Whoever is starting behind center, they hope they’ll be throwing to sophomore WR Drake London. London is in concussion protocol after leaving Saturday’s game in the third quarter when his helmet bounced off the turf after he was swung to the ground. London had posted a monster 13-170-2 receiving line prior to going down.
Coaching news
Ohio State (-49) vs. Akron
ATL: OSU -49.8
Ohio State HC Ryan Day stripped DC Kerry Coombs of defensive play-calling duties last week. In Saturday’s 41-20 win over Tulsa, secondary coach Matt Barnes called plays from the field, while Coombs in essence took Barnes’ old seat in the booth.
Day didn’t like what he saw from his defensive charges in OSU’s first two games. Day declined to say if the move was permanent -- saying he would first have to review film first -- but insinuated that a new direction has been chosen. “We just took a hard look at it and had a lot of hard conversations and tried to figure out what gives us the best chance to move forward,” Day said.
Situational spot
Indiana (-9) at Western Kentucky
ATL: IU -6.1
QB Michael Penix Jr. hurt his throwing hand in last Saturday’s 38-24 loss to Cincinnati, but fortunately X-rays came back negative. The Hoosiers have already indicated he’s good to start against Western Kentucky this weekend.
As for the matchup, that looks like a tricky situational spot for the Hoosiers. Indiana has played a gauntlet schedule so far, taking losses to two top-10 teams with nasty defenses: Iowa and Cincy.
Now, coming off that loss to the Bearcats, in which the Hoosiers were outscored 21-3 over the final 19 minutes of game play, Indiana has to travel to Western Kentucky. WKU’s new Air Raid offense is, schematically, a night-and-day difference from what IU has seen so far against Iowa, Idaho and Cincinnati.
The Hoosiers have another brutal matchup on deck, Penn State, the third top-10 opponent to arrive on IU’s schedule. Will the Hoosiers overlook the Hilltoppers?
2021: 17-14-1 (54.8%) ATS
2014-2020: 610-540-17 (53.0%) ATS
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