Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s playing two Big Ten matchups between Michigan at Minnesota and Nebraska at Illinois, plus Texas A&M hosting Alabama, and Florida vs. Vanderbilt.
Nebraska at Illinois (-3.5): O/U 43.0
Nebraska scored 22 or more points in four-straight meetings against Illinois until last season (Illinois won 26-9), which was Bret Bielma’s best defensive squad in years, plus the final season of Scott Foster at Nebraska.
This year’s Illini defense is suspect and should provide the Cornhuskers with an opportunity at multiple touchdowns and red zone drives.
Illinois ranks 102nd in scoring defense at 30.6 points per game, 109th in rushing defense (179.6 rushing ypg), and 99th in red-zone defense with 88.5% of opponents’ red-zone chances resulting in points.
The Cornhuskers scored 10 and 14 points in the two road losses at Minnesota and Colorado, but this is a much better challenge and environment.
In addition, Nebraska QB Heinrich Haarberg has been under center for three consecutive games (35, 28, 7 points scored) and should find a groove here following the Michigan game.
I grabbed the Cornhuskers Team Total of Over 19.5 at -120 odds. I like the chances this offense looks competent against Illinois.
Pick: Nebraska Team Total Over 19.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Michigan (-19.5) at Minnesota: O/U 46.5
Michigan’s defense has allowed three total touchdowns (1st) through five games and three made field goals for 5.7 points per game, an NCAA-best.
The Wolverines defense held every opponent to seven or fewer points in all five games and Nebraska to seven points in Michigan’s first road game.
Minnesota scored 34 and 35 points in the past two games versus Northwestern and Louisiana Lafayette, but will not sniff anything near that here.
The Gophers scored 13 points versus Rutgers and North Carolina, a total they should be closer to, but not reach against Michigan. The Wolverines own the 20th-ranked third-down defense (31.7%) and No. 1 red-zone defense (37.5%). Minnesota will struggle.
I played the Minnesota Team Total Under 13.5 at -104 odds and would shop around and every book offers different odds or lines. I’d risk 1.5 units out to -130 odds.
Pick: Minnesota Team Total Under 13.5 (1.5u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Alabama (-1) at Texas A&M: O/U 46.5
Alabama has won nine of the past 10 meetings versus Texas A&M, but the last time at A&M, the Aggies earned the 41-38 win in 2021.
After opening around -2 to -3, Alabama is trending down to -1 and -1.5 favorites in most places and there are whispers as to why. A rumor is Alabama’s QB Jalen Milroe may have tweaked his hamstring or had a minor issue in practice, which hasn’t been reported to the media.
If that is true, that explains the slight line movement and we should expect Texas A&M to be favorites if Milroe isn’t 100% or a game-time decision.
Texas A&M has ranked No. 1 in havoc rate created, while Alabama is 111th in opponent havoc rate allowed, which means the Aggies should get constant pressure on the Tide regardless of the QB situation.
In Alabama’s four wins, they have held all four opponents to 17 or fewer points and A&M held their opponents to 22 or less in their four wins.
Whether or not Milroe is banged up, I like the Under 46.5 at -115 odds. This should be a grind with both defenses outplaying the opposing quarterbacks in a pivotal SEC battle.
Pick: Under 46.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Vanderbilt at Florida (-18.5): O/U 51.5
The Florida Gators welcome Vanderbilt to The Swamp for homecoming and every fan is encouraged to wear blue for what should be an easy win.
Florida was dominated on the road by Kentucky, 33-14 last week, as expected, but this is a much better spot for the Gators offense to put up points in front of the home crowd.
Vanderbilt has lost four straight games to Wake Forest, UNLV, Kentucky, and Missouri. In that span, the Commodores allowed 36, 40, 45, and 38 points for 39.7 points per game. In the first half of those four games, Vandy surrendered 17, 24, 20, and 24 points for 21.2 points per game.
Florida has won 30 of the last 32 meetings versus Vanderbilt, including last year’s 31-24 loss at Vandy. Head Coach Billy Napier and the Gators will look to avenge that loss and I don’t expect Florida to let up on the Commodores during homecoming.
In Florida’s last five wins versus Vanderbilt, the Gators scored 42, 38, 56, 37, and 38 points for 42.2 points per game with 42, 56, and 38 at home during that span.
I played the Gators’ Team Total Over 34.5 at -120 odds for homecoming and would go out to -135 before playing 1 unit at Over 35.5.
Pick: Florida Team Total Over 34.5 (Risk 1.5u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Season Record: 27-18 (60%) +7.77 units
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