All lines provided by BetMGM
7 Penn State (6-0 3-0 Big Ten) v 3 Ohio State (6-0 3-0 Big Ten)
Current: Ohio State (-4.5) | 46.5 - Opened: Ohio State (-10.5) | 60.5
The preseason lookahead line stayed at (-10.5) | 60.5 for the duration of the offseason, right up until it re-opened on 9/24 at (-7.5) | 56.5. On Sunday morning we got a (-6) | 52.5 re-opening, with the total continuing a steady free-fall to it’s current 46.5, while the line has settled in at (-4.5) over the last day. The two-touchdown middle opportunity illustrates the kind of arbitrage windfalls that you can take advantage of if you’re on top of the preseason markets.
Ohio State’s defense improved by leaps and bounds in Year 2 of DC Jim Knowles’ tenure, ranking 11th in EPA/Play, 2nd in yards per play (4.0) and 3rd in points per game with a sterling 10.2 PPG average. Their offense has been solid as usual, but the Bucks 36 PPG average is actually their lowest output in nearly a decade. They also have to deal with injuries to star WR Emeka Egbuka and RB TreVeyon Henderson, which they can sustain against Purdue, but what about the stout Penn State defense?
The Nittany Lions rank 1st in team pass defense, including earning the nation’s top marks in success rate (24.8%), yards per play (3.4) and EPA/Play. OC Mike Yurcich is ripping off a play per 21.2 seconds (37th) with a 50.5% success rate (10th) and is averaging 3.3 points per drive (13th). They’ve deftly handled each and every opponent on their schedule to this point with little strain, crushing their highest ranked opponent Iowa 31-0 while holding the Hawkeyes to an incredible 76 total yards.
Despite missing the most advantageous lines i’m still leaning towards Penn State, who I backed at +650 to win the Big Ten in my preseason B10 preview columns. I just cannot get the Notre Dame game out of my mind, as OSU had a meager 4% win expectancy in the contest. Give me the +4.5 points with Penn State with a money line sprinkle at +155 , as I think we get a close game that eventually goes the way of the Nittany Lions.
8 Texas (5-1 2-1 Big 12) vs Houston (+23.5) (3-3 1-2 Big 12)
Current: Texas (-23.5) | 60.5 - Opened: Texas (-20.5) | 59.5
This game opened Sunday morning with Texas favored by -20.5 with a 59.5, but quickly moved over the key 21 point threshold as the market leaped to take advantage of the low line.
For their part, Houston is one of the worst Power Five defenses in the country, allowing 6.1 yards per play (92nd) and a 44% success rate (100th), while checking in at 118th in EPA/Play. Their pedestrian offense ranks 91st in EPA/Play while charting at 64th in overall offensive performance. Despite winning three games, the Cougars have posted a win expectancy of 28% or less in every single game except for a 38-7 destruction of first-year FBS team Sam Houston State. They’re coming off a game against West Virginia in which they needed to convert a hail mary that was deflected into the awaiting arms of Stephon Johnson in order to beat a mediocre West Virginia Mountaineers squad.
For their part, Texas has been merciless against lower rung Big-12 opponents, annihilating a very respectable Kansas team 40-16 and putting it on Baylor 38-6. With the Longhorns coming off a bye following the heartbreaking loss to Oklahoma in a game that was essentially a toss-up (48% win expectancy), I expect UT to be absolutely ruthless and snuff out this Houston offense while RB Jonathan Brooks runs all over Houston’s 116th rated run defense. I think Texas dominates, so i’m advocating you take the 22.5 if you can find it out there and ride with the Longhorns over an extremely flawed Houston team that is struggling to make the jump from the AAC to Power Five football.
17 Tennessee (5-1 2-1 SEC) v 11 Alabama (6-1 4-0 SEC)
Current: Alabama (-8.5) | 48.5 - Opened: Alabama (-8.5) | 68.5
This opening line underscores the tectonic shift each of these teams has experienced since the preseason in terms of the potency of each of these offenses. On 7/18 this game total stood at 68.5 points, staying there until 9/27 when it took a slight dip to 66.5 as the cracks started to form regarding the shaky tenures of QBs Joe Milton and Jalen Milroe. Once the early trading markets dried up and the lines reopened at 4:17AM Sunday, the total plummeted to 55.5 and kept dropping until it hit a low-point of 46.5 Monday morning, at which point it bounced back to the current 49.5. To say there was major value for anyone who snapped up the Under 68.5 total in the preseason marketplace is a drastic understatement.
Tennessee has struggled noticeably in the passing game this season after losing NFL QB Hendon Hooker along with WRs Cedric Tillman and Jalin Hyatt, then lost Bru McCoy and Oregon transfer Donte’ Thornton to injury a few weeks ago. Starting outside WR Ramel Keyton has made a habit of dropping passes, muffing a surefire 50+ yard TD reception last game when he was streaking bare naked down the seam. QB Joe Milton can throw the ball 80+ yards but cannot read a defense to save his life, hence his 100-yards passing on 11–of-22 passes with a 1-to-1 ratio. I’m absolutely convinced that Texas A&M would have beaten UT if starting QB Connor Weigman didn’t get injured, pressing very limited QB Max Johnson into service.
Alabama overhauled their offensive approach after moving from Heisman Winning QB Bryce Young to Jalen Milroe, playing at a plodding pace that ranks 127th in plays per second and a seemingly impossible 70th in overall rushing performance. I’ll be looking at Jalen Milroe’s rushing yardage prop line when it pops as well, as #11 Alabama has been sacked on 18% of pass attempts, the worst mark among Power 5 offenses. Where Milroe has taken noticeable positive steps is in his downfield passing, as he has a passer rating of 263.9 with over 10 yards to go, the second best among FBS quarterbacks.
Tennessee’s defense ranks seventh in overall defensive performance, while Alabama ranks 19th. With Alabama failing to clear the current 48.5 total in just on of their last five games, and each team really lacking a clear offensive identity, i’m backing the Under in what I think will be a similar game script to Alabama’s 24-10 win over Ole Miss.
Other Notable Line Moves:
14 Utah (5-1 2-1 Pac-12) vs 18 USC (6-1 4-0 Pac-12) = USC -4.5
Current: USC (7) | 55.5 - Opened: USC (-2.5) | 57.5
This game dropped domestically at 8:22AM with USC holding a slight edge at (-2.5) with a -137 Money Line. A managed increase followed, with the line kicking around (-3.5)-to-(-4.5) until it jumped to it’s current (-6.5)-to-(-7.5) mark on Monday morning, where it has settled. Tough for me to back Utah considering how one-dimensional their offense has been with Cam Rising still out and Caleb Williams looking to rebound from the dud he tossed up against Notre Dame last week.
Texas Tech @ BYU (+4.5) | 51.5 - Opened (+2.5) | 56.5
Baylor @ Cincinnati (-1.5) | 51.5 - Opened (-3.5) | 47.5
UTSA at FAU (+3) | 59.5 - Opened (-3) | 62.5
Memphis @ UAB (+4.5) | 63.5 - Opened (+7.5) | 63.5
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BetMGM College Football Insights: Championship
Line movement (Last Week to Current)
- Michigan +350 to +300
- Washington +1300 to +900
- Texas +2000 to +1800
Highest Ticket%
- Michigan 13.6%
- Colorado 9.8%
- Ohio State 9.3%
Highest Handle%
- Alabama 32.3%
- Michigan 10.7%
- Colorado 10.1%
Biggest Liability
- Colorado
- Alabama
- USC
BetMGM College Football Insights: Heisman Trophy
Line movement (open, current)
- Michael Penix Jr. +1600, -145
- Caleb Williams +500, +3500
- Shedeur Sanders +12500, +25000
- Travis Hunter +15000, off the board (injury)
Highest Ticket%
- Shedeur Sanders 18.0%
- Travis Hunter 14.5%
- Caleb Williams 10.2%
Highest Handle%
- Caleb Williams 17.1%
- Shedeur Sanders 16.9%
- Michael Penix Jr. 11.0%
Biggest Liability
- Shedeur Sanders
- Travis Hunter
- Caleb Williams