Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!
Texas A&M (-2.5) at LSU – O/U 47.5
Texas A&M survived Arkansas, 45-42, last week, marking the second road game of the year. Arkansas +7.5 was my best bet last week and I am running it back on fading the Aggies here as this is the second of a three-game road trip.
LSU is in a desperation spot at 0-2 and luckily play at home in Death Valley at night. There isn’t a better situation for LSU to come out with a win. A&M has allowed 40 and 42 points in its two road games and LSU has struggled to score. The Tigers reached 24 points at Vanderbilt last week, which is the second-most all season (56 vs SE Louisiana).
They could find success against A&M who may have top 10 havoc rates both sides of the ball, but also rank 115th in tackling grade (25 missed the last two weeks), and 134th in rush explosives allowed. If LSU can score more than 24 points, the pass defense should be enough to keep this close, although mobile QBs (Pavia, Chambliss) have given LSU issues.
The Tigers lost at College Station last season and if you go back to 2016 and 2017, that was the last time a team had a two-game winning streak in this series. It’s been back-and-forth for almost a decade now. I will take LSU on the spread and ML. I believe Texas A&M will drop a game on this three-game road trip (ARK, LSU, MIZ) and this seems like the spot.
Pick: LSU +2.5 (1.5 units), LSU ML (0.5 unit)
Missouri at Vanderbilt (-3) – O/U 51.5
I like Missouri and think the public will be on Vandy heavy here. Diego Pavia went from +5000 to win the Heisman after the Alabama loss to +700 following the LSU win — I feel like this is a ploy from the sports books with that insane movement, but maybe I need to stop reading conspiracy theories.
Vanderbilt is outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate allowed and EPA allowed, while Missouri is No. 2 in passing downs success rate and one of PFF’s top passers all year long.
The Tigers rank 19th in tackling success rate and don’t give up many big plays, which is bad news for Pavia and all those different looks in their run heavy approach. I think Missouri can win this game and it could com down to the wire. I’ll take the points.
Pick: Missouri +3 (1 unit)
Wisconsin at Oregon (-31.5) – O/U 43.5
Two back-to-back shutout losses at home from Wisconsin, 34-0 (Iowa), and 37-0 (Ohio State), hasn’t happened in over 50 years to Wisconsin football! Wisconsin hasn’t scored in 31 straight possessions and are on a five-game losing streak with a chance to go winless in the Big Ten. The fire Luke Fickell crowd is in full pledge.
Oregon enters off a massive beatdown over Rutgers to follow up a loss to Indiana. The Ducks are in a great spot to dominate this matchup from kickoff. The Badgers have been outscored 40-0 in the first half of the last two games and 94-7 over the last five overall.
Going to Eugene won’t make Fickell keeping his job any easier. Oklahoma State was down 41-3 at the half when the Pokes visited Oregon, and Oregon State trailed 21-7 at Oregon. I think Oregon can shutout Wisconsin in the first 30 minutes and likely score three-plus times to cover the -17.5 to -19.5. I’ll ride the Badgers first half team total under 2.5 at +114 odds.
Pick: Wisconsin 1H Team Total Under 2.5 (1 unit)
Northwestern at Nebraska (-7.5): O/U 44.5
Northwestern is one of the most bet teams at multiple books this week simply because they knocked off Penn State at Happy Valley and shutout Purdue at home over the past two weeks and have won four straight.
However, I think that comes to end at Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are the best team that the Wildcats have faced since Oregon (34-14 loss, trailed 34-0) and this will mark three consecutive physical conference outings. Nebraska is coming off a road loss on Friday night in back-to-back road games at Maryland (34-31 win) and Minnesota (24-6 loss) where they played two games in six days, so they have an extra day of rest and prep, plus motivation.
Nebraska beat Michigan State, 38-27, earlier coming off a loss and have a chance to match last season’s regular season win total (six) with a victory here. 10 of the last 13 meetings between the two have been by one score, but they did not play last year and this is not the same Nebraska team from 10 years ago. I will take the Huskers to cover -7.5.
Pick: Nebraska -7.5 (2 units)
Rutgers (-1.5) at Purdue: O/U 58.5
I was on Purdue +3.5 at Northwestern last week and it ended with the Boilermakers losing 19-0. This is likely the final chance for a Big Ten win with the upcoming schedule at #25 Michigan, vs #1 Ohio State, at Washington, then vs Indiana. It’s now or never for Purdue to get a Big Ten win.
Rutgers also enters winless in the Big Ten, but has a much better schedule compared to Purdue. This will be Rutgers third road game in the past four contests and they have another next week at Illinois. After playing at home last week and losing 56-10 to Oregon after two straight road games, I question the excitement of going back on the road to Purdue.
I am going to be that crazy dude who takes Purdue here and likely the final time of the season as the Boilermakers are a fade every game after this.
Pick: Purdue +1.5 (1 unit)
Illinois at Washington (-4) – O/U 54.5
The Illini are coming off a bye week, and in the last three years, they have been money to the Over following a break.
In 2024, the Over 47.5 vs Purdue cashed a 99 points. In 2023, the Over 44.5 at Minnesota finished at 53. In 2022, the Over 38.5 at Wisconsin cleared at 44 and the only loser since 2021 was the 9 OT game at Penn State (20-19). Weird, right? Well, Illinois could very well be 4-0 to the Over since 2021 out of the bye week.
The Illini rank 122nd in havoc rate on defense and Washington is 121st, so neither defense should give the opposing offenses issues. Illinois is 94th in havoc allowed, while Washington is 25th, so the edge goes to the Huskies in protecting their QB.
Illinois is 3-0 on the road this season and their only losses came at Indiana and versus Ohio State. I think we see a well-scripted offense and a team that knows they’re capable of winning this game. Washington’s two losses came at Michigan last week and versus Ohio State where they scored 13 total points, so odds are the market is down on Washington.
I like the Over 54.5 and think both teams play like their season is on the line as they boast two losses and have two experienced slingers at quarterback.
Pick: Over 54.5 (1 unit)
Season Record: 40-51 (44%) -8.98 units | -9.26 ROI%
Last Week Record: 4-7 -2.3 units
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the College Football schedule!
Follow my plays for the season on X @VmoneySports, Instagram @VmoneySports_ and Action App @vaughndalzell.
If you are looking for help with your weekly College Football picks, NBC Sports has you covered with game odds, betting tools, and player prop projections.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
- Trysta Krick (@Trysta_Krick)
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
