We are at that point in the college football season where each week features a handful of elimination games. No. 18 Oklahoma (6-2, 1-1) at No. 14 Tennessee (6-2, 2-1) is one of those games. The loser will almost certainly be out of the running for a berth in both the SEC Championship game as well as the college football playoff.
The game features a classic “best-on-best” battle: Tennessee boasts the SEC’s top scoring and total offense, led by quarterback Joey Aguilar, while Oklahoma counters with the conference’s premier scoring and total defense.
Lets dive into the schools and look at each on both sides of the ball, a handful of players to watch, and also some key numbers.
Game Details and How to watch No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee
- Date: Saturday, November 1, 2025
- Time: 12:30PM Eastern
- Site: Neyland Stadium
- City: Knoxville, TN
- TV/Streaming: ABC
Game Odds for No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Oklahoma Sooners (+120), Tennessee Volunteers (-142)
- Spread: Tennessee -2.5 (-118)
- Total: 55.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Oklahoma Sooners
Head Coach: Brent Venables
2025 Record: 6-2
Offense Ranking: 38
Defense Ranking: 4
Strength of Schedule: 13
Oklahoma sits at 6-2 (2-2 SEC) with an 8th overall SP+ ranking, buoyed by one of the nation’s most dominant defenses and a steadily improving offense. The Sooners’ defense ranks 4th nationally in SP+, holding opponents to just 3.91 yards per play (2nd) and an elite 27.0% success rate (1st), while leading the country in stuff rate (31.2%) and ranking 3rd in sack rate (10.4%). Offensively, Oklahoma’s production has been inconsistent, ranking 38th in SP+ with a 44.5% success rate (50th), but the unit remains capable of generating production through an efficient red-zone attack (73.1% TD rate, 23rd). Under HC Brent Venables, the Sooners are blending suffocating defense with opportunistic scoring, keeping them in the SEC title mix despite turnover inconsistency and a challenging back-end schedule.
The Oklahoma Sooners Offense
Oklahoma’s offense has been serviceable, ranking 38th in SP+, with modest efficiency (44.5% success rate, 5.50 yards/play, 2.27 points/drive). The run game is a limiting factor averaging 4.4 yards per rush (112th) with a 21.0% stuff rate (110th) and only 2.09 yards after contact (129th), so they struggle to create push. The passing game is more steady than splashy (45.8% success rate, 6.6 yards/dropback) but it still hits some big shots (19% of completions go 20+ yards, 28th) and converts in close quarters with a 73.1% red-zone TD rate (23rd) and 90.9% goal-to-go (12th). Protection is adequate (pressures allowed 2.4%) and standard-downs efficiency is fine (50.7% Succ. Rate), but very low explosiveness (95th yards per successful play) keeps the Sooners more methodical than high-octane.
Oklahoma Player to Watch on Offense: QB John Mateer
Quarterback John Mateer has overcome a troublesome hand injury for Oklahoma, starting seven games while throwing for 1,790 yards and 8 touchdowns with a 63.6% completion rate. His passing efficiency is respectable (7.5 ANY/A, 68.5 QBR) driven by good short-to-intermediate accuracy, with a 46.5% success rate and 5.2% sack rate. On the ground, Mateer adds another dimension, rushing 65 times for 290 yards (4.46 YPC) and five scores, converting 50.8% of his carries successfully and moving the chains on nearly a third of his runs. While he’s thrown six interceptions, Mateer’s balance of composure, mobility, and ability to play through a hand injury shows why he is Oklahoma’s unquestioned offensive leader.
The Oklahoma Sooners Defense
Oklahoma’s defense is one of the best in the country, ranking 4th in SP+ and 1st nationally in success rate allowed (27.0%). The Sooners dominate the line of scrimmage, holding opponents to 3.91 yards per play (2nd) and 3.6 yards per rush (11th) while posting a 31.2% stuff rate that leads the nation. Their pressure metrics are elite too with a 10.4% sack rate (3rd) and 37.3% pressure rate (16th), anchored by a front that ranks 4th in defensive line havoc. Efficient and ruthless in the red zone (3.03 points per scoring opportunity, 2nd), Brent Venables’ defense is the heart and soul of OU’s team.
Oklahoma Player to Watch on Defense: Edge R Mason Thomas
Edge rusher R. Mason Thomas has emerged as Oklahoma’s most disruptive defender, across eight games he’s totaled 20 tackles (11 solo) with 10 havoc plays, including 7.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks, ranking among the team leaders in both categories. His 12.7% pressure rate on 110 pass-rush snaps and average 2.40-second time to first pressure demonstrate a blend of burst and closing speed off the edge. Thomas also forced a fumble and broke up a pass, giving HC Brent Venables a complete, high-motor defensive end capable of wreaking havoc and driving Oklahoma’s Top 5 SP+ defense.
Tennessee Volunteers
Head Coach: Josh Heupel
2025 Record: 6-2
Offense Ranking: 2
Defense Ranking: 48
Strength of Schedule: 25
Tennessee has ridden one of the nation’s most dynamic offenses to a 6–2 start and 18th SP+ ranking, ranking 2nd nationally in Offensive SP+ while averaging 7.0 yards per play (12th) and 51.7% success rate (8th). Josh Heupel’s up-tempo attack remains explosive and efficient, posting 0.26 EPA/play (10th) and scoring 3.40 points per drive (11th) behind elite balance, averaging 5.3 yards per rush and 8.5 yards per dropback. The offensive line has been outstanding, allowing pressure on just 1.5% of dropbacks (8th nationally) and ranking Top 10 in total blown-block rate. However, the defense has struggled to keep pace, ranking 48th in SP+ and allowing 5.38 yards per play (61st), leaving the Vols reliant on their pace, efficiency, and red-zone scoring punch to outgun opponents.
The Tennessee Volunteers Offense
Tennessee’s offense remains one of the most potent in the nation, ranking 2nd in Offensive SP+ while averaging 7.0 yards per play (12th) and converting plays at an elite 51.7% success rate (8th). The Volunteers are lethal on both sides, as they rank 4th in rushing success rate (52.7%) and 9th in passing success rate (50.2%), pairing explosive downfield throws (8.5 yards per dropback) with consistent ground production (5.3 yards per rush). Josh Heupel’s tempo-driven system operates at 22.0 seconds per play (3rd) and thrives in scoring territory, recording 5.16 points per scoring opportunity (15th). Behind a top-tier offensive line that allows pressure on just 1.5% of dropbacks (8th), Tennessee’s spread scheme continues to overwhelm defenses with pace, precision, and explosive efficiency.
Tennessee Player to Watch on Offense: QB Joey Aguilar
The preseason Joey Aguilar-for-Nico Iamaleava trade has worked out spectacularly for the Vols, with Aguilar starting all eight games and throwing for 2,344 yards, 18 touchdowns and a commendable 65.9% completion rate. He’s demonstrated a firm understanding of HC Heupel’s offense, averaging 14.1 yards per completion and 8.7 yards per dropback, while maintaining a healthy 9.8 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A). Aguilar’s 49.5% success rate 3.1% sack rate highlight his poise in Josh Heupel’s up-tempo system, thriving in both rhythm and vertical passing concepts. On the ground, he’s contributed 142 rushing yards and two scores, adding a dual-threat element that enhances Tennessee’s spacing.
The Tennessee Volunteers Defense
Tennessee’s defense has been the weaker link of an otherwise excellent team, ranking 48th in Defensive SP+ and allowing opponents a 44.1% success rate (106th nationally). The front seven remains active, generating an 8.2% sack rate (17th) and a strong 17.6% havoc rate (29th) led by disruptive interior play, but the unit struggles to limit efficiency, giving up 5.38 yards per play (61st) and a 4.76 points-per-scoring-opportunity mark (105th). Standard-down containment has been inconsistent, as foes convert 52.0% of such plays (117th), while a 40.6% passing success rate allowed indicates vulnerability in coverage. While Tim Banks’ defense is opportunistic and aggressive, its big-play prevention and red-zone execution must improve to complement Tennessee’s explosive offense down the stretch.
Tennessee Player to Watch on Defense: CB Colton Hood
Colton Hood has emerged as one of Tennessee’s most impactful defensive playmakers, recording 26 tackles, 11 havoc plays, and two defensive touchdowns through seven games. In coverage, he’s been outstanding — allowing completions on just 40.0% of 30 targets for 171 yards, with eight pass breakups and one interception while holding opposing quarterbacks to a 22.4 passer rating. Hood’s 26.7% forced incompletion rate and 0.67 yards allowed per coverage snap highlight his lockdown ability on the boundary. Combining elite ball skills with sure tackling (83.9% tackle rate), Hood has been a tone-setting presence in the Volunteers’ secondary and a catalyst for their defensive success.
No. 18 Oklahoma vs. No. 14 Tennessee team stats, betting trends
- Tennessee has won 18 of its last 20 at home
- Tennessee has covered the spread in 4 of its last 5 home games against teams with winning records
- The Over is 4-1 in Tennessee’s home games this season
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Tory Blaylock UNDER 40.5 Rushing Yards
Oklahoma’s run game has been listless for much of the season, ranking 129th in yards after contact (2.1 YAC) and 95th in EPA/rush. First-year running back Tory Blaylock has become the starter after Jaydn Ott and Jovantae Barnes fell out of favor. However, outside of a 101-yard eruption against the beleaguered South Carolina front, Blaylock’s top rushing total against P4 opponents is a mere 33 yards vs. Texas. When Oklahoma falls behind, they abandon the run. They tried to keep pace with Ole Miss last game, to no avail, but it was RB Xavier Robinson who promptly rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns on a mere nine carries. Tennessee ranks 2nd nationally in yards before contact allowed, and Blaylock has broken a pitiful 7 tackles in 93 rush attempts to this point. With Robinson clearly asserting himself as a credible contender for RB1 status, and Tennessee being able to score enough to get OU in a chase script, I’m taking the Under 40.5 Rushing Yards for Tory Blaylock.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between No. 18 Oklahoma and No. 14 Tennessee
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Tennessee Volunteers at -2.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 56.5.
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