The PGA Tour heads back to Arnie’s place at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This year, the tournament is one of the Tour’s designated events. It will feature 120 of the best golfers in the world, with a purse of $20M. These major-like fields and big prizes make for compelling television throughout the week. Bay Hill is a challenging course. The holes are long, the rough is thick, and the greens are lightning-fast. To make life more difficult for those playing Bay Hill, bunkers heavily protect many greens. This week, strength off the tee and precision with irons is mandatory for success. After looking at the forecast, those with a Thursday afternoon and Friday morning tee time should see a slight weather advantage. With all that in consideration, here are my bets for this week.
Rory McIlroy to Win (+1200 – Profit Boost)
As evidenced throughout the years, there weren’t many who loved Arnold Palmer more than Rory McIlroy. He became an ambassador for Palmer’s creation, the Golf Channel, and continues to carry the torch that Palmer lit for the PGA Tour golfers. At his current odds (+900), he’s almost unplayable. With a 25% profit boost, his odds become more tolerable. Many believe this tournament is a two or three-horse race between McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Scottie Scheffler. There’s no denying they are the Tour’s big three. Both Rahm and Scheffler’s prices are too short for my liking.
If McIlroy is at his best, he’s the best golfer in the World. He’s long off the tee and the best ball striker in the field. He’s great around the greens and is due for a bounce-back putting performance after losing -3.3 strokes and -4.8 strokes on the putting surface at the Phoenix Open and the Genesis invitational. At Genesis, McIlroy did just about everything right. He gained +8.5 strokes tee-to-green, +6.3 strokes on approach, and +1.8 strokes around the greens. He likely would’ve had a chance to win had his putter not let him down. McIlroy has a win here in 2018 and finished T6, T5, T10, and T13 in his last four starts here. He’s due for a win, and at this price, he’s someone I am down to get behind.
Max Homa Top-20 (-105)
If we were to extend the big three to a big four, Max Homa would likely be the first name on my mind. He’s not only playing out of his mind; he’s a golfer with serious poise. In deep fields with so many good golfers, it’s essential to bet on guys with the strength to compete physically and mentally. The California native is now making a trip to Florida after nearly polishing off his second win at the Genesis. He might say he didn’t hit enough quality drives over the weekend to win, but it was Rahm who was an inevitable golfer. He stood in his way from picking up yet another win in California.
If you want to bet on Homa to win this week, I couldn’t find a compelling reason to stop you. He has two wins and a runner-up finish in his last seven events. He plays in a great tee time, the PM/AM wave. He should avoid most of the terrible winds on Friday. Homa is accurate off the tee and a great putter, two things that excite me most about his game here. He’s also a much-improved ball striker. Homa has finished inside the top 20 in his last two trips here. Betting him finish inside the top 20s enough to excite me.
Viktor Hovland Top 20 (+155)
It amazes me how Viktor Hovland has so much success at the courses that demand so much from the golfers around the greens. He certainly has made strides with his short game, but he’s still far away from having a world-class short game. Nonetheless, he balls out at these courses. Last season, the victory was his. It slipped out of his grasp as Scheffler made his run, but it was there through the end.
A wise golf handicapper once said if you’re worried about how good a golfer is around the green, you’re probably not winning with that golfer that weekend. Hovland does so many things well where it can almost mask his inefficiencies around the green. He’s long and deadly accurate off the tee, and he’s excellent on approach. His goal is to avoid big scores and do his absolute best out of the bunkers.
John Maginnes, Drew Dinsick, and I sat down to give our thoughts and a few bets on the tournament. The episode can be found here.