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The field is finalized for the Honda Classic after Rick Lamb survived a 16-for-1 playoff in Monday’s Open Qualifier. 144 players are set to take on the Champion Course at PGA National as Florida winds, water hazards, and the infamous Bear Trap have the potential to wreak havoc.
With winds likely to pick up as the day progresses, we will once again target the early wave in our first-round selections. While it did not work out for us at the Genesis Invitational, the reasoning was sound as those off in the morning averaged about one-stroke less than those in the afternoon.
It will be a similar strategy with a twist as Joaquin Niemann’s quick start at Riviera has gotten me thinking. Now the third outright selection of ours to command the first-round lead, the inability to connect on both Thursday and Sunday paydays has brought me some grief.
As is the case, you may find this article a bit redundant as the overlap in selections is well apparent. Hoping to bring our final round good fortunes up to speed in Round 1, our full tournament analysis remains the same for Thursday.
Our friends at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced the first-round leader market ahead of this week’s Honda Classic. Defending champion Matt Jones shot out of the gates last year with a 9-under 61 and sits at +5000 to lead after Round 1 once again.
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Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+2000: Sungjae Im
+2200: Tommy Fleetwood
+2500: Daniel Berger, Louis Oosthuizen
+3000: Billy Horschel, Joaquin Niemann
+3500: Brooks Koepka, Keith Mitchell, Shane Lowry
+4000: Alex Noren, Matthew Wolff
+5000: Brian Harman, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Ian Poulter, Jhonattan Vegas, K.H. Lee, Lee Westwood, Matt Jones, Mito Pereira
To Lead After the First-Round:
Mackenzie Hughes +6600 at BetRivers (0.30 units):
With early reports of the rough being a touch more penal than usual, not only will Driving Accuracy receive an uptick in importance, but Scrambling as well. This should play right into the hands of Hughes who ranks inside the top-15 in the field over the last 24 rounds in said statistical category.
A top-notch putter and an effective Par-3 scorer, Hughes’ last eight rounds at PGA National read: 71-72-66-66-68-72-71-70. For a course riddled with trouble and big numbers lurking around every corner, this is far more impressive than it seems.
While his iron play is not the sharpest from 150 to 200 yards, his scoring on Par-4’s from 400 to 450 yards more than makes up for it. If Hughes’ approach numbers are able to mirror that in Sea Island, he is capable of a similar result as he bookended the RSM Classic with rounds of 63 and 62.
Michael Thompson +8000 at BetRivers (0.25 units):
Remaining with our theme of double dipping so to speak, Thompson’s combination of accuracy off-the-tee and streaky iron play makes him an intriguing first-round selection. With single-round showings of +0.9, +1.1, +1.2, +1.6, +2.4, +2.4, and +2.9 SG: Approach already this year, the Alabama product presents plenty of upside.
Looking his way at the Sony Open, Thompson certainly did not disappoint as he opened with a 7-under 63 which he would later match in the final round. A fairway finder, the top scrambler in this field, and back on his preferred Bermuda grass, it will more so be about avoiding costly mistakes.
With a scoring average of 70.75 at PGA National, I like his chances to do just that. Signing for rounds of 66 and 67 in last year’s tournament, just a slight improvement on those efforts could carry him to the top of the Round 1 leaderboard.
Mark Hubbard +10000 at PointsBet (0.20 units):
Last one, I promise. “Homeless Hubbs” checks in as yet another outright selection of ours to carry the first-round baton. With five of his last eight rounds at PGA National coming in at par-or-better, the man from Colorado has clearly found a comfort level in Palm Beach Gardens.
While it is difficult to decipher the status of his iron play, due to a lack of strokes-gained data, I have seen enough to give Hubbard the nod. Great from 175 to 200 yards, great on Par-3’s, and great at scrambling, his Thursday prospects will simply come down to hitting fairways with regularity and converting enough of his birdie opportunities. If he does, he has the potential to play a factor and if he doesn’t, then well, he doesn’t.
J.T. Poston +11000 at DraftKings (0.18 units):
Finally, something a little different, although not really as Poston was on our short list for the WM Phoenix Open. The reason being the 28-year-old has been driving the golf ball like an absolute stallion. Gaining strokes off-the-tee in every measured round of 2022, Poston takes a hit statistically due to his approach metrics.
Yet to counter this point, the WCU alum is never going to impress on the west coast outside of TPC Scottsdale. On courses more tailored to his style of play – namely the Stadium Course and Waialae CC – he has done some damage.
Carding a round of 64 to kickoff the Sony Open, Poston posted +2.6 SG: Approach. Back on his native Bermuda, he will need to combine this with a similar performance on the greens in order to find the top of the Thursday leaderboard.
Brandon Hagy +15000 at PointsBet (0.13 units):
This one may be a throw away in all honesty as Hagy arrives to the Honda Classic having missed 4-of-5 cuts this year. With hardly any form to speak of, outside of his well-documented length off-the-tee, I am chancing a return to PGA National will bring a much-needed spark to his game.
Posting rounds of 69-62-76-66 in 2021, you get the general understanding of the range of outcomes we are dealing with when it comes to the 30-year-old. Hoping for something in the neighborhood of his second round, Hagy has had some decent days with irons since the beginning of January.
+1.8, +0.6, +1.7, and +1.0 SG: Approach in four of his seven measured rounds in 2022, this should do the trick as he is competent on these specific greens despite struggling long-term on Bermuda.
First-Round Leaders YTD: -6.67 units, -100.00%
Total YTD: +65.48 units, +114.39%
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