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The final major of the year means an outsized collection of betting options - including, yes, props.
The Open returns to Royal St. George’s for the first time in a decade, and the tournament itself returns from a one-year hiatus. Shane Lowry finally gets a chance to defend the Claret Jug that he won two years ago at Royal Portrush, and while upwards of 16 players have withdrawn because of COVID-19 or travel issues, most of the world’s best have gathered this week in England to contest the oldest major.
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So with the bigger stage comes more options to build your bankroll, including make/miss cut markets, nationality markets, group betting and more. Here a look at some of the novelty selections that have caught my eye, starting with a former Ryder Cupper who should top his fellow countrymen:
Prop Plays (odds via PointsBet Sportsbook)
Alex Noren (-125) Top Swede: Noren was on the European squad in Paris three years ago, but after entering a lengthy slump he’s not even on the radar this fall for Padraig Harrington. He’s in the midst of a turnaround, though, with five top-25 finishes in his last eight starts including a T-4 finish in Detroit where a Sunday 64 left him one shot out of a playoff. In a four-man Swedish market that includes Marcus Kinhult and Rikard Karlberg along with 2016 Open champ Henrik Stenson, Noren is clearly the pick of the litter. Stenson’s triumph at Royal Troon likely still influences his number, and Kinhult and Karlberg can’t match the credentials of either of their countrymen. Noren has finished T-17 or better in each of his last three Open appearances, highlighted by a T-6 finish at Royal Birkdale in 2017. Stenson could pull a rabbit out of his hat in the event where he peaked five years ago, but the odds favor Noren to top a small field.
Brooks Koepka (+300) to win Group A: This is another four-man market, with Koepka matched up against three other heavyweights in Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas. Rahm is a clear favorite at +160, an understandable position coming off his win at Torrey Pines, but if history has taught us anything, it’s that betting against Koepka in a major is a fool’s errand. McIlroy has some questions to answer perhaps the quirkiest course in the Open rota, while Thomas’ tee-to-green play last week in Scotland wasn’t quite up to his usual standards and he has made a putter switch upon landing in England. Koepka is alongside Jordan Spieth among the best SG: Total and SG: Approach stats at The Open since 2015, and that consistency should pay off once again this week. Three top-5 finishes in his last four starts, including each of the last two majors, show that he’s got his game right where it needs to be entering another big event.
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Takumi Kanaya (+550) Top Asian: This market is putting oddsmakers to the test as they look to price up an 11-man field in light of Masters champ Hideki Matsuyama withdrawing late last week. It’s currently topped by C.T. Pan (+400), with Kanaya and Jazz Janewattananond both at +550. I’m siding with Kanaya, a former top-ranked amateur who has won twice in his native Japan in the last eight months. His transition to the pro game continues to progress at a strong pace, and he has finished T-17 and T-28 in his last two starts on the European Tour. Kanaya was solid at the Irish Open, recording four straight rounds of 71 or better at Mount Juliet, and a similar performance this week should put him in the mix to top this market - even though it might not take much more than a top-20 result to do so.
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