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Things are going to look a bit different this week as we place our wagers for Round 1. In lieu of the typical first-round leader selections that we have all grown accustomed to, we will target some three-ball matchups at both the John Deere Classic and the Scottish Open.
A home and away so to speak as this week is jam packed with golf for us fans to consume. With such a strong field in North Berwick, Scotland, more attention will inevitably be drawn over there. However, I wouldn’t sleep on the John Deere Classic as there are plenty of strong storylines, such as pre-tournament favorite Daniel Berger attempting to solidify his Ryder Cup positioning.
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These two tournaments should shake out quite differently. We’ll start our analysis at TPC Deere Run where a birdie-fest is all but certain. With winning scores of 21-under and 27-under in the last two editions of the John Deere Classic, it’s either birdie or bust for these players. Couple your typical birdie-making metrics with strong wedge players, and streaky putters and that should lead you in the right direction.
The Scottish Open will be a bit more difficult to decipher as this is only the third year that the Renaissance Club will play host. Not only that, but the first two adaptations of this tournament couldn’t be more different. The most recent was held in October in cold, rainy, and all-around miserable conditions. As such, players struggled and were only able to get to 11-under by week’s end.
However, in 2019, the exact opposite unfolded, as players fired at seemingly every pin. 22-under was the number that got yourself into a playoff as birdies were made in bunches. Despite their differences, some statistical similarities have been highlighted. It should play out as your typical tee-to-green competition with par-4 scoring being a premium as it was the past two years.
With weather being a major factor in Scotland, those players who are set to begin their tournament in the afternoon appear to have a slight edge. Remember, that is afternoon their time. They’ll get things going here in the states bright and early, allowing us to enjoy a nice morning coffee while we watch our wagers play out.
Round 1 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet Sportsbook):
Scott Stallings (+131) over Camilo Villegas and Will Gordon
I love Stallings this week at TPC Deere Run. It’s one of those tournaments where it feels like anyone could win and I would certainly pool Stallings into that category. He’s been striking his irons tremendously, especially last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic where he posted +5.0 Strokes Gained: Approach.
Not only that, but he’s shown the ability to catch a red-hot putter over the last couple of months. In a three tournament stretch in May, Stallings gained a combined 16.6 strokes on the greens. This included a performance of +8.1 SG: Putting at the AT&T Byron Nelson where he eventually came in a tie for third. I expect Stallings to be high up on this leaderboard by week’s end and that starts with a strong first-round.
While Villegas has been hitting his irons nicely, I can’t get behind the rest of his game, specifically his putter. He’s played the more difficult events better this season, not necessarily the shootouts, so I wouldn’t say he’s well equipped to keep up with the pace. With Gordon, outside of the Palmetto Championship, it’s been a tough 2021. In South Carolina, it was a final round 64 that propelled him up the leaderboard. Without that round, in all likelihood, it would’ve been another mediocre finish. I am not one to typically side with favorites in a three-ball, but Stallings appears to be on a different level than his playing competitors.
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Tyrrell Hatton (+176) over Tommy Fleetwood and Xander Schauffele
The rest of our selections will reside in Scotland as we’ll kick things off with the man who has found more than his fair share of success in this part of the world. Hatton has been splendid not only in Scotland, but in Rolex Series events as a whole. Boasting six European Tour titles, four of which are Rolex Series events, Hatton has no issues challenging the biggest names in golf.
His other two victories have come just a bit north of the Renaissance Club. Playing a three-course rotation of the Old Course, Carnoustie, and Kingsbarns, Hatton won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in back-to-back seasons in 2016 and 2017. Clearly comfortable in these big events and in this region of Scotland, I’ll happily go to the world No. 10 in Round 1.
As for Schauffele and Fleetwood, I am a bit pessimistic about both of their prospects for the week. Coming off an intimate wedding ceremony with only family, Schauffele took a flight from Las Vegas to Scotland. Dealing with jet lag and potentially looking forward to next week’s Open Championship, I’m not sure how he’ll fare in the first-round of his Scottish Open debut. That leaves Hatton to face off with Fleetwood, who is prone to the occasional poor round. Despite finishing runner-up in this tournament in October, my confidence lies with Hatton.
Robert MacIntyre (+192) over Collin Morikawa and Lee Westwood
It’s finally a home game for MacIntyre as the most talented Scot in the field will tee it up with two of the bigger names in the game. This could honestly go one of two ways. MacIntyre could either harness the energy of the crowd into a great opening round or put unwarranted pressure on himself and struggle. I have reason to believe it’s the former after listening to his pre-tournament press conference as the 24-year-old spoke like a seasoned veteran.
He’s been playing well enough to have a good showing this week as well. A top-40 finish at the U.S. Open was on the heels of another similar outing at the Made in Demark. While Morikawa and Westwood both looked solid at Torrey Pines, I’m not convinced that’ll be the case at the Renaissance Club in Round 1.
Morikawa has said all the right things leading up to his first start in Scotland, but a learning curve may present itself. Specifically, on and around-the-green is where my concerns lie, as it tends to be Morikawa’s weakness even on courses and terrains he is familiar with. He and Westwood may very well have a great week, but in the first-round, MacIntyre is my play.
Justin Thomas (+206) over Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy
I am of the opinion that markets are overlooking Thomas this week. I’ll either look like a genius when he’s in the mix in the final round or not so much when he’s playing a practice round at Royal St. George’s on Sunday. While I do like Thomas this week as a whole, I believe there are some questions around both Rahm and McIlroy as well, specifically in the first-round.
One of the bigger storylines coming into the Scottish Open is how Rahm will play coming off his first major victory. Look, he’s the world No. 1 for a reason, he’s been the most consistent, elite player for what seems like a year now, but this week could be a small speed bump. I’m nitpicking, yes, but at double the price, I’ll go to Thomas who seems to peaking as opposed to Rahm who just peaked.
McIlroy on the other hand has shown the inability to start fast throughout his career. It was the case last week at the Irish Open and very well could prove to be true this week as well. It was a sluggish Round 1 at Mount Juliet, eventually amounting to an even-par 72. I figure something similar could be in the cards at the Scottish Open, opening the door for Thomas.
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