NBC Sports’ coverage of the Road to the Kentucky Derby concludes today with two Grade 1 races– the Blue Grass Stakes from Kentucky and the Santa Anita Derby from California.
For some horses, this is their final chance to make it into the Derby field, while others can stamp themselves as a top contender for the Run for the Roses just 4 weeks from now.
Let’s kick it off with the Blue Grass, where I’m very eager to fade the favorite…
BLUE GRASS STAKES
KEENELAND, RACE 9, POST TIME 5:15PM ET
The morning-line favorite is #1 Tapit Trice, trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. This $1.3 million auction purchase has shown occasional flashes of brilliance in his career, but I have been very underwhelmed. He constantly puts himself at a disadvantage by breaking slowly from the gate and having to rally from back in the pack – horses with those characteristics do not often find success in dirt races. Yes, he won the Tampa Bay Derby last time out, but he beat a very, very weak field. Since he is facing tougher field here, I am tossing this colt and looking elsewhere.
I am going with #3 Verifying. This well-bred son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify lost as the favorite last time out in the Rebel Stakes, but I am not holding that against him too much as that was on a sloppy track and he encountered traffic trouble in the stretch run. He is certainly talented, having earned one of the top speed figures of the year back in January. And the likely pace scenario works in his favor – there is not a lot of early speed in this race, so he should be able to sit 2nd or 3rd behind moderate early fractions, leaving him more than enough in the tank for the stretch run.
THE PLAY:
WIN: #3 Verifying at 5/2 or higher
(Watch More: Contenders to Win the Kentucky Derby)
SANTA ANITA DERBY
SANTA ANITA, RACE 6, POST TIME 5:43PM ET
This is a very evenly matched field running in the Santa Anita Derby. It is headlined by #5 Practical Move, who won the Grade 2 San Felipe last time out in a breakout performance. He is very talented, and he can win, but I do not want to bet the favorite in a race that is as evenly matched as this. Plus, Practical Move already has the points to make it into the Kentucky Derby and does not need to be at 100% fitness here. I am more interested in the horses that need a top-2 finish here to qualify for the Derby.
I considered #6 National Treasure, but I was fairly underwhelmed by his performance in the Sham Stakes last time out, where he was beaten as the 3/5 favorite. Plus, the fact that he has not run since January 8th is not great. #3 Geaux Rocket Ride was intriguing, but I am worried that he is going to be caught up in a speed duel with longshots #4 One in Vermillion and #9 Low Expectations. A speed duel would benefit the horse I landed on- #7 Skinner.
I picked Skinner to win the San Felipe Stakes in his last start, and he finished a decent third behind Practical Move and Geaux Rocket Ride. He started slowly, as expected, but then took a lot longer to get into the race than I had hoped. He was running well on the far turn, but jockey Victor Espinoza took him very wide coming into the stretch and losing that much ground understandably dulled his late kick in the final furlong. He has reportedly been training very well recently, and the extra ½ furlong distance of this race should help. I am just hoping he isn’t as far back as he was in the San Felipe, and that he is able to save ground on the far turn, rather than going 8-wide. Closers do not win their fair share of dirt races though, so be sure to demand value – I am not betting him at anything lower than 4-1.
THE PLAY:
WIN: #7 Skinner at 4-1 or higher
Enjoy the races this final Saturday of Prep Races. Just 4 weeks until they Run for the Roses!
