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Here is a deep dive into nine key international prep races, focusing on the horses that will be competing in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup World Championships. It includes an assessment of each race and how this analysis can play a role in helping to predict winners this week in Del Mar.
Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1, Longchamp, France, Oct. 3)
1. Torquator Tasso
2. Tarnawa (Longines Turf)
3. Hurricane Lane
Breeders’ Cup record
You don’t have to look too far down the list of previous Longines Turf winners to see that Europe’s most famous race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, is a leading trial. Enable, who completed the double in 2018 under Frankie Dettori, is the star performer on the roll of honor. The 2016 Turf first and second, Highland Reel and Found, had finished roles reversed in France, while 12 months earlier Found went from ninth at Longchamp to first at Keeneland. Flintshire took second in both showpiece races in 2014.
Why it matters
The Arc is the biggest race in Europe, where turf racing dominates. It remains one of the most prestigious prizes in turf racing and attracted an all-star field this year.
Assessment
This year’s Arc was billed as the best race of the season with English Derby hero Adayar, St Leger winner Hurricane Lane, three-time top-level scorer Tarnawa and star three-year-old Snowfall in the line-up, as well as leading representatives from Germany and Japan. Heavy rain led to the turf being described as ‘very soft’, but that took nothing away from the spectacle. Despite the race going to German longshot Torquator Tasso, the form looks strong and runner-up Tarnawa, winner of last year’s Longines Turf at Keeneland, has a great chance of recording back-to-back Breeders’ Cup victories.
Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1, Royal Ascot, England, June 16)
1. Love (Longines Turf)
2. Audarya (F&M Turf)
3. Armory
Breeders’ Cup record
Show bettors in the Breeders’ Cup Turf may revert to early season form. That strategy has worked in the last decade with The Fugue (third in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes in 2013) and Highland Reel (won the Prince Of Wales’s in 2017) rewarding backers by finishing second and third respectively in the Breeders’ Cup Turf later in the year. The most recent crossover comes courtesy of Lord North, who won the Prince Of Wales’s before taking fourth at Keeneland 12 months ago.
Why it matters
Although Ascot’s turf track offers a completely different test to Del Mar, the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes was used as an early season target for two Breeders’ Cup players and those that contest the race often come to the Breeders’ Cup fresher than those that ran in Europe’s biggest Fall races.
Assessment
There is no doubt that this year’s Prince Of Wales’s Stakes failed to attract the same calibre of talent as in previous seasons, and slow early fractions resulted in a sprint-like finish. Love justified favoritism off a layoff but has disappointed in three subsequent runs and has plenty to prove in the Longines Turf for Aidan O’Brien, whose barn is in the midst of a quiet spell. Audarya can be marked up for her performance given she was rank in the early stages.
Qatar Prix de la Foret (Group 1, Longchamp, France, Oct. 3)
1. Space Blues (FanDuel Mile)
2. Pearls Galore (FanDuel Mile)
3. Entscheiden
Breeders’ Cup record
Legendary French mare Goldikova, the only three-time winner of the FanDuel Mile, often used the Foret as her Breeders’ Cup prep run, but recent Mile runners from the race have not fared so well. Make Believe attempted to complete the double in 2015 after winning at Longchamp but finished fifth at Keeneland behind Tepin. Limato strived for the first prize 12 months later but floundered in sixth behind Tourist for Bill Mott.
Why it matters
Versatility is required for Europeans to make their mark at the Breeders’ Cup and Space Blues proved his ability to ship and win once again.
Assessment
Inclement weather usually dims acceleration, but that’s not the case with the versatile Space Blues. Godolphin’s superstar had the race at his mercy at the quarter pole and drew two lengths clear for a tenth career success. Del Mar’s sharp turf track represents a different challenge but this globetrotter is extremely adaptable and has been campaigned with the second half of the season in mind.
This chart shows exactly why analyzing the key international prep races going into the Breeders’ Cup World Championships will help you gain an edge over the competition on race day.
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1, Ascot, England, Oct. 16)
1. Baaeed
2. Palace Pier
3. Lady Bowthorpe
5. Mother Earth (FanDuel Mile)
7. Master Of The Seas (FanDuel Mile)
Breeders’ Cup record
Connections often opt against the quick turnaround of either two or three weeks between Ascot’s Champions Day and the Breeders’ Cup with their star milers. However, the Godolphin-owned Ribchester proved it isn’t impossible to compete in contrasting conditions when he finished second in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes before taking sixth in the Mile in 2017.
Why it matters
Despite being well beaten, the two Del Mar entries showcased their talents against the best milers in Europe.
Assessment
Master Of The Seas and Mother Earth were set tough tasks against the best turf milers in the world. Baaeed, who sits on top of the Longines World’s Best Racehorse rankings, and champion Palace Pier showed tenacity and guts in a thrilling finish, but late headway from deep closer Mother Earth did not go unnoticed. The Aidan O’Brien-trained filly, who won an English Classic in May’s 1,000 Guineas, could be the chief beneficiary of a pace collapse.
Prix de l’Opera Longines (Group 1, Longchamp, France, Oct. 3)
1. Rougir (F&M Turf)
2. Grand Glory
3. Eudaimonia
4. Audarya (F&M Turf)
Breeders’ Cup record
Only the exceptionally talented Sistercharlie outkicked Prix de l’Opera winner Wild Illusion in the 2018 Filly & Mare Turf at Churchill Downs. That mouthwatering duel came a year after Wuheida, who also hailed from the Charlie Appleby barn, entered the winner’s circle at the expense of Rhododendron in the Filly & Mare Turf at Del Mar - a reversal of form after the pair finished fourth and first respectively in the Opera.
Why it matters
The Prix de l’Opera has proven to be an excellent prep race for European shippers in recent years.
Assessment
Fast early fractions for the conditions resulted in a major pace collapse and Audarya, who tracked the pace through the early stages, performed creditably to take fourth. She won the Filly & Mare Turf at Keeneland last year after finishing third to Tarnawa in the Opera and should give another bold show. Rougir was getting more distance after performing over a mile earlier in her career and showcased a willing attitude to put her nose down on the wire. She now has to prove that she can perform on firm ground.
Prix de l’Abbaye (Group 1, Longchamp, France, Oct. 3)
1. A Case Of You (Turf Sprint)
2. Air De Valse
3. Glass Slippers (Turf Sprint)
Breeders’ Cup record
European challengers endured a winless record in the Turf Sprint from the inaugural running in 2008 until last year, when the Kevin Ryan-trained Glass Slippers shot through a tight gap between the dueling leaders to land the Grade 1 prize under jockey Tom Eaves. On her most recent start before that success, she finished second in the Prix de l’Abbaye and has followed a similar route to Del Mar this year.
Why it matters
Last year’s Turf Sprint winner was previously seen running in the Prix de l’Abbaye, so don’t overlook this trial.
Assessment
A near-side rail bias over the sprint course at Longchamp presents question marks about the Abbaye form, but A Case Of You’s finishing kick is not up for debate. He, and third-home Glass Slippers, made noteworthy late headway to finish either side of the pacesetting Air De Valse but may lack the necessary sharp break to find a workable position on the Del Mar turf.
Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1, Newmarket, England, Oct. 9)
1. Native Trail
2. Dubawi Legend (Juvenile Turf)
3. Bayside Boy
6. Glounthaune (Juvenile Turf)
Breeders’ Cup record
This is a tried-and-tested stepping stone towards the Breeders’ Cup despite not boasting ‘Win and You’re In’ status. Three Juvenile Turf winners in the last eight years - Mendelssohn (2017), Outstrip (2013) and George Vancouver (2012) - had taken in the Dewhurst earlier in their two-year-old campaign. All had failed to win at Newmarket. Lancaster Bomber finished second in both races in 2016, while last year’s Dewhurst runner-up Arizona finished fifth in the Juvenile Turf.
Why it matters
The Dewhurst is without question Europe’s premier two-year-old race. Evidently, even the beaten horses should be feared in worldwide turf contests during the Fall.
Assessment
The unbeaten Native Trail is one of the most exciting horses in training in England and his two-length romp in the Dewhurst was not a surprise. However, it wasn’t all plain sailing as Dubawi Legend made a bold bid at the quarter pole despite racing away from the favored rail. He will relish the firm turf. Glounthaune had been off for six months, stumbled at the start and warrants another chance.
bet365 Fillies’ Mile (Group 1, Newmarket, England, Oct. 8)
1. Inspiral
2. Prosperous Voyage
3. Cachet (Juvenile Fillies Turf)
4. Mise En Scene (Juvenile Fillies Turf)
Breeders’ Cup record
Chriselliam set the tone for European trainers when she caused an almighty shock at 28-1 in the Fillies’ Mile before justifying shorter odds in the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf in 2013. Three barren years followed, but Aidan O’Brien reinvigorated the trend by sending September (second in the 2017 Fillies’ Mile) and Mother Earth (third in the 2020 Fillies’ Mile) to the Breeders’ Cup to finish third and second respectively in the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf.
Why it matters
Fifth-placed finisher Wild Beauty won the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine prior to her defeat here, so the form stacks up.
Assessment
Fillies’ Mile winner Inspiral currently heads the futures wagering for the 1,000 Guineas, the early season Classic for three-year-old fillies in England, so the form appears pretty strong. She was the class angle in the field and tracked the speedy Cachet, who boasts the tactical speed to find a nice spot at Del Mar. Mise En Scene’s inexperience caught her out and her maturity is a question mark.
Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1, Newmarket, England, Sept. 25)
1. Perfect Power
2. Castle Star
3. Armor (Juvenile Turf Sprint)
4. Go Bears Go (Juvenile Turf Sprint)
5. Twilight Jet (Juvenile Turf Sprint)
Breeders’ Cup record
Declarationofpeace won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Del Mar in 2017 having previously taken seventh in the Middle Park at Newmarket. However this race only earned its spot as a Breeders’ Cup Championship race the following year, so that may not be worth dwelling on. Last year’s fourth Lipizzaner had finished down the field in sixth in the Middle Park.
Why it matters
All three European challengers in the Juvenile Turf Sprint showed speed in the Middle Park and now drop in distance.
Assessment
Twilight Jet set steady fractions on quick ground and had no excuses for his defeat in a competitive edition of the Middle Park. He hit the quarter pole two lengths in front of Go Bears Go, who appeared one paced when the tempo quickened but eroded that deficit on the run to the line. Armor possesses the best turn of foot out of the Juvenile Turf Sprint trio and had to wait for room at a crucial stage.
This chart shows exactly why analyzing the key international prep races going into the Breeders’ Cup World Championships will help you gain an edge over the competition on race day.
