Corey Kluber vs. Tigers
Corey Kluber is coming off his first win and after watching teammates Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon dominate Detroit, he should feel confident in earning a second consecutive victory on Sunday.
In his last two games, Kluber has recorded season-highs with 91 and 96 pitches. In Kluber’s last outing, he reached 6.2 innings and 28 total batters faced versus Baltimore. That is the most innings pitched and hitters faced since 4/20/2019 for Kluber.
Entering this matchup, the last eight of nine pitchers have recorded at least seven strikeouts against the Tigers. A favorable team for Kluber to build off his last start and first win.
NBC’s model predicts Kluber to go 5.0 innings and earn 6.4 strikeouts. His five strikeouts in his previous game are a season-high and the most since his opening start. Kluber has started five games and had his most extended starts come in his previous two outings - a positive sign for today.
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Detroit ranks last in the MLB with a .200 batting average, OBP (.260), SLG (.347), OPS (.607) and second in strikeouts (293). The Tigers’ 69 walks are 27th overall and the 79 runs scored in 28 games (2.82) is 29th.
The Tigers have now lost eight of nine games. Detroit failed to score three or more runs in eight of the last 10 games. Detroit lost 10-0 to Cole’s Yankees and 6-4 to Taillon’s.
Kluber has allowed three earned runs in the last two games over 10.2 IP and 187 pitches.
I like Kluber as he is next up in my tour of fading the Detroit Tigers. Kluber is coming off two of his best three performances on the season in addition to the highest strikeout outing in the previous start. Versus Detroit, Kluber is a must-bet. [[ad:athena]]
I would play up to 5.5 strikeouts for 1u (one unit) and 6.5 Ks for 0.5u (half unit). It is likely Kluber sets a season-high in strikeouts versus Detroit on Sunday. Taillon did (8 Ks) and Cole almost did (12), finishing one K short of tying a season-high.
In Kluber’s last outing against the Tigers (4/9/19), he went 6.0 innings on 96 pitches for eight strikeouts, seven hits, two runs and one walk. I could see similar numbers with fewer strikeouts and hits.
The model projects 5.5 hits, 6.4 strikeouts and 2.5 earned runs from Kluber. He has allowed five or six hits in four-of-five games this season and recorded at least four strikeouts in three-of-five. I see Kluber at 6-7 Ks with 5-6 hits and two earned over 6 innings.
This could be a stressful bet with the rate of hits allowed by Kluber compared to Cole or Taillon in the last two games, but being a high-strikeout option versus a depleted Tigers’ team is a continuation of me fading Detroit.
The line is not available at publishing, so this is I expect to play it. The prop on PointsBet will be updated here once released and on VmoneySports on Twitter when I release my plays of the day.
Pick: Kluber Over 5.5 Strikeouts (1u) or Over 6.5 Strikeouts (0.5u)
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