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UFC on ABC 3 Betting Guide: Ortega vs Rodriguez

Brian Ortega

Brian Ortega

Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

The UFC is in New York this Saturday and I will be in attendance in press row. The main event is a Featherweight matchup between Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez. My preferred bet in this fight is Brian Ortega ton win via Submission (+250). Ortega has had success mixing in takedowns in his previous fights and is an absolute beast on the ground with submission grappling. Yair Rodriguez has spent plenty of time on the mat as a result of takedowns so this sets up nicely for Ortega to take advantage with his ground game. Follow me on Twitter @CombatSportsNBC for my tracked bets. Feel free to DM me if you want my picks for any fight on the card and my thoughts on any other props or parlays you’re interested in playing.

*** Fight: Dustin Jacoby vs Da Un Jung

** Prop Play: Jacoby via Decision (+245) on PointsBet

Analysis: Dustin Jacoby throws a higher volume of strikes on the feet and is an accomplished kickboxer. His takedown defense is good and he has good getup ability if he is taken down. Jacoby is a live dog and his most likely path to victory is a striking based decision.

*** Fight: Bill Algeo vs Herbert Burns

** Prop Play: Bill Algeo via Decision (+195) on PointsBet

Analysis: Bill Algeo is an experienced fighter who wins minutes. He will have to weather the early storm from Herbert Burns. Burns has power in his strikes and is dangerous as a submission grappler. Burns also gasses out during fights and Algeo should take this fight over in round 2 and cruise to a decision victory.

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*** Fight: Ricky Simon vs Jack Shore

** Prop Play: Ricky Simon via Decision (+205) on PointsBet

Analysis: This is a great fight that I favor hitting the judges’ scorecards. The margin of victory is going to be razor thin in this fight. Ricky Simon can win this fight with his pace and transition wrestling. Simon previously fought Merab Dvalishvili and I was cageside for that fight in Atlantic City. He won that fight in the final seconds and he was extremely impressive in the grappling exchanges. This fight will be won by the fighter who gets the upper hand in those exchanges.

*** Fight: Amanda Lemos vs Michelle Waterson

** Prop Play: Amanda Lemos via Decision (+106) on PointsBet

Analysis: Amanda Lemos was rolling until she got caught in a submission by Jessica Andrade. Lemos is a high volume striker who is going to get the better of the striking exchanges with Michelle Waterson and inflict more damage. Waterson likes to strike from distance and mix in takedowns which is why this fight should go to decision with Lemos winnings because of the accumulated damage from her strikes.

*** Parlay Pieces to mix and match:

Punahele Soriano ML (-240): Soriano can keep this fight standing and hurt Lungiambula on the feet. Soriano wins by KO or decision.

Miesha Tate ML (-215): Tate is dropping down to Flyweight to take on Lauren Murphy. Tate is the superior grappler and should have a strength advantage.

Shane Burgos ML (-175): Shane Burgos is from New York and possesses a six inch reach advantage in this matchup. Burgos and Jourdain and both strikers so I favor the fighter with the reach advantage.

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