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For decades, NASCAR’s relationship with tracks created long-term contracts and kept new venues from popping up. The sanctioning body promised change would come and they fulfilled that pledge. From 2018 through 2021, six new tracks hosted races; World Wide Technology Raceway marks the seventh.
In 2018, the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course debuted. The disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated Daytona International Speedway‘s road course be pressed into service in 2020.
In 2021, the Bristol Motor Speedway dirt track hosted its first race and so did the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course and Circuit of the Americas (COTA). Nashville Superspeedway was also added to the schedule last year.
But just because it’s new doesn’t mean we don’t have data to sort through for Gateway. With only 11 degrees of banking in Turns 1 & 2 and nine degrees in 3 & 4, this track is minimally banked like Phoenix Raceway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Typically. We have grouped those tracks with Richmond Raceway and Martinsville Speedway and called them short, flat tracks. After this weekend, we may create a sub-genre for the three 1- and 1.25-mile courses.
Proposed Winner
Now that he has broken out of his stupor, Denny Hamlin (+850) must be considered a favorite on this intermediate flat track. He’s been great on the shorter versions and also at Pocono Raceway and the Indy oval, which are 2.5-mile flat tracks. There is no reason to think those skills won’t translate to Gateway.
Hamlin’s win last week was a bit of a gift. He won the pole, but spent much of the day in the middle of the pack until chaos erupted at the end of the Coke 600 and Hamlin was lucky enough and had reflexes fast enough to avoid the carnage. Including his runner-up finish in the All-Star race, Hamlin now has three consecutive top-fives and that means it’s time to take him seriously again.
Additionally, this track is similarly-shaped to Darlington Raceway – another track that has been incredibly kind to Hamlin in the past.
Best Bets for a top five
With a worst result of 11th, Ryan Blaney (+1000) has been one of the most consistent short, flat track drivers in the past two years – amassing 12 consecutive results that strong or better. His last four attempts on this track type netted three fourth-place finishes and he is our favorite among the drivers who are currently winless in 2022. Blaney also has a fifth-place finish from New Hampshire last year to recommend him.
Before the Blue-Emu 400 at Martinsville, we commented that William Byron (+1000) was becoming one of the best short track racers in the business, but we stopped short of making him the favorite. He won that race and became the first driver to win multiple races in 2022. He remains one of only three drivers with a pair of wins. We toyed with the idea of making him the favorite this week, but that is difficult to rationalize since he hasn’t finished in the top 10 since winning on the short track. On another sportsbook he is listed at +280 to finish in the top three and that is a safer bet than his +10/1 for the outright win.
It depends on which stats one looks at as to whether it’s appropriate to favor Kyle Busch (+850) for a top-five or -10. He’s been challenging for the win in the last several weeks, but hasn’t quite been able to execute in the final laps. He’s been consistent on flat tracks, but of his eight top-10s on them in the last nine attempts, only one was a top-five. Unfortunately, you are not going to find great odds for a near-miss because he is listed at +110 on other books to finish top five.
Short, flat tracks have not been uniformly kind to Kyle Larson (+700), but despite some recent missteps, it’s impossible to overlook him at any track. Even though this has not been his forte, he put together a winning run last fall in the Season Finale 500k and nabbed the championship. That was only his second top-five on this course type in 2021. He has one top-five so far this year on minimally-banked courses with a fifth at Richmond.
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Best Bets for a top 10
Ross Chastain (+900) was the only driver in the Coke 600 who maintained his strength from start to finish. He didn’t get the result he earned because of a late-race crash, but we are becoming increasingly accustomed to seeing him contend for wins and that confidence means a lot on the track. In 14 races this year, Chastain is batting .500 regarding top-fives and two of those came on short, flat tracks with a second at Phoenix and fifth at Martinsville.
Like his teammate Larson, Chase Elliott (+900) doesn’t have the recent record on short, flat tracks that would recommend him for an outright win bet, but with so few drivers carrying streaks on this course type now, one must go with the strongest teams. Elliott is at a crossroads after crashing in his last three starts, (including the All-Star race), but before that happened, he was riding a five-race streak of top-10s. This week will be counted a success if he earns another one of those.
Christopher Bell (+1600) turned a corner on his 2022 results at COTA with a third-place finish. Since then, he’s earned six results of seventh or better in his last eight races on a variety of tracks. It isn’t always pretty, like last week when he seesawed through the standings and was off the lead lap for a while in the later stages of the race. The important thing is that he’s managed to pull it together at the right time, however, and it’s likely that he will win a race during the regular season.
Alex Bowman (+1800) has not been making a lot of noise lately, but he has quietly amassed nine top-10s in his last 12 attempts. Most of those were outside the top five, which makes it hard to recommend him for an outright win bet unless you believe he is going to have a strong qualification run. His 18/1 odds well shrink dramatically if he qualifies on one of the first two rows and considering how strong Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) is in time trials, that is a distinct possibility.
It’s easy to lose faith in a driver when he isn’t contending for victories. Kevin Harvick (+2500) finished third in the Coke 600, but he was not among the leaders until the final frenetic laps and that lessens our enthusiasm. But perceptions can be misleading. Harvick has four top-10s in a current streak of five consecutive top-15s and two of the last three of those were top-fives.
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