Darlington Raceway is no easier to tame for Xfinity drivers than it is for the Cup ranks.
Finishing well in this race automatically puts an Xfinity driver on Cup owners’ radar because it takes the same mixture of ingredients they are looking for. Drivers must show patience to keep from wearing out their tires. They have to communicate well so that needed changes are made in very few stops, and ultimately, they have to get up on the wheel and drive an ill-handling car.
Veteran interlopers perform well at Darlington, but with new rules that limit their participation, the Xfinity regulars have been able to hold their own in recent events. A variety of owners have graced Victory Lane in recent years, so don’t automatically assume that Joe Gibbs Racing will run away with the checkers even though the most recent winner and this week’s favorite are part of that organization.
The Lady in Black is mysterious.
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Proposed Winner
Denny Hamlin (+125) is prohibitively favored for the Sport Clips Haircuts VFW 200 this week with a line barely above even money. It’s difficult to argue with his ranking. Since 2015, he won two races, finished second in another and crossed under the checkered flag among the top five in every event he entered. If not for a disqualification, he would have another victory in the 2019 edition of this race.
The competition in the Cup series is going to be a lot tougher with Kyle Larson listed as the favorite, so this is Hamlin’s best chance to shine and build a little momentum entering the Round of 16.
Just because he has a near-perfect record of top-fives does not mean he can’t be beaten, however. All four drivers who finished ahead of him in last fall’s Sport Clips 200 were Xfinity regulars as well as a couple who beat him to the line in 2018. Since his odds are so low, he is not necessarily a good value this week.
Best Bets for a top five
Teammate Brandon Jones (+1800) is likely to be Hamlin’s closest competition this week despite his long odds. He won last year’s fall Darlington race and finished third this spring. He has hit a rough patch recently with accidents in three of his last four oval races, which explains his odds, but when he stayed out of trouble at Michigan a couple of weeks ago, he finished second to AJ Allmendinger.
Allmendinger’s (+1000) victory in that race makes him one of this week’s favorites as well. He was coming off back-to-back runner-up finishes on road courses and backed up his Michigan triumph with a second-place finish at Daytona. He stumbled at Atlanta Motor Speedway and New Hampshire Motor Speedway, but had three consecutive oval top-six finishes immediately preceding that. Allmendinger also has top-fives in the last two rough-surfaced tracks at Dover International Speedway and Nashville Superspeedway
Justin Allgaier (+725) has been perfect on rough-surfaced tracks. He won this spring’s race at Darlington, and if that were not enough to make him a favorite, he backed it up with a third at Dover and second at Nashville. With much more attractive odds than Hamlin, he should get a lot of well-deserved action.
Noah Gragson (+750) enters the weekend with four straight top 10 finishes. Two of these came on road courses, but that does not diminish the momentum provided. Like Allmendinger, he has not been perfect. He’s had a few rough patches, but that just makes him more motivated to run well.
One can never discount Austin Cindric (+725). His Dover victory this spring proves he can manage his tires, but 30-something results at Darlington (on the last lap while he was challenging for the win) and Nashville show that he is not immune to trouble. Last spring, he finished fourth at Darlington, so he will run well here if he stays out of the wall.
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Best Bets for Steakhouse Elite 200 (Darlington)
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