Latest Lines: Indy 500

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Line Moves

While several lines have moved around for top-ranked drivers, one thing that has remained the same is that Scott Dixon (+500) has steadily seen his line lowered. He was not favored in the run up to the last two weeks’ on-track activity, but as soon as he hit the bricks, that opinion changed.

Dixon had a line of +775 before the first session, which put him behind four others. After practice was in the books and immediately before qualification, the others fell to the wayside and he became a favorite while still a relatively good value at 15/2. Since then, the sportsbook traders have been increasingly greedy, and they lowered him to +500 after Carb Day.

Alex Palou (+600) opened as the third-ranked driver, but confidence slipped for a while. If you were paying attention and never lost faith, he topped out at 9/1 before time trials. But when he showed that he was almost as fast as his teammate Dixon in qualification, he began to drop again. Ultimately, he landed about where he started – only 50 points lower than his opening line.

Patricio O’Ward (+850) never made it back to his original line. He opened at +675 but struggled to find consistent speed. In the eight practice sessions run prior to the Indy 500, O’Ward had the seventh-best average ranking. That puts him in a range where the right adjustments at the end of the race could give him a shot, but with odds under 10/1, there are more lucrative dark horses at your disposal with an equal shot to win.

The captain fields fast cars on the track he has figuratively and now literally owns, so it was no surprise that Josef Newgarden (+1000) opened as the second-ranked driver. The traders clung tenaciously to a low line even after he was only moderately fast in prequalification practice. After qualifying 14th, reality set in and Newgarden fell to 10/1, where he has since stayed. He was decent in Practice 8 but fell to 23rd on Carb Day. He’ll finish much better than that, but not enough so to make you want to risk a wager.

Rinus VeeKay (+1000) certainly did nothing to improve his line after qualification, but he nevertheless lost 300 points from his opening and 600 points from his highest ranking. His last two practice sessions were 25th and 33rd, so the only explanation that makes sense is that a large volume of trades happened when he was at +1600 that caused this radical shift.

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Will Power (+1200) has been one of the most volatile drivers in the field this week. He opened at +850, fell to +1400 before qualification and was +1200 afterwards. He bounced back and forth between those two lines ever since and landed at 12/1 after Carb Day. It has also been difficult to determine how he will finish based on the last two practice sessions in which he posted the 20th- and sixth-fastest times.

Marcus Ericsson (+1200) ended the week with a perfect record of top-10 rankings in practice, but it took a while before traders figured out what should be done with him. He opened at +1800, had 200 points added to his line, but eventually landed at +1200 late Saturday evening. With that line, he is a solid value.

Three drivers ended the week tied for the eighth – 10th-ranked spot of +1300.

Scott McLaughlin (+1300) had 400 points added to his opening total as the traders must feel they need to sweeten the pot.

The other two drivers had even more dramatic shifts with Colton Herta (+1300) dropping from his favored status at opening to eighth on Saturday. Herta never seemed to find speed at Indy with an average ranging of 21.47 in seven sessions. The team has been strong and Herta has regularly been an oval favorite, but this does not appear to be his week.

Takuma Sato (+1300) had one of the biggest line changes from +3500 to +1300 – a reduction of 2200 points from his total. He was seriously underrated at the start of the week, but has swept the top five in practice in his last six sessions. Sato is still a longshot, but he’s worth a moderate bet to cover the favorites.

Rank	Driver	Current Odds	Opening Odds	Change	Before Quals	After Qualis	After Practice 8	After Carb Day
1.	Scott Dixon	500	775	-275	750	600	550	500
2.	Alex Palou	600	650	-50	900	800	600	600
3.	Patricio O’Ward	850	675	175	1000	1000	1000	850
4.	Josef Newgarden	1000	600	400	800	800	1000	1000
4.	Rinus VeeKay	1000	1300	-300	1400	1600	1200	1000
6.	Will Power	1200	850	350	1400	1200	1400	1200
6.	Marcus Ericsson	1200	1800	-600	2200	2000	2200	1200
8.	Scott McLaughlin	1300	900	400	1000	1100	1400	1300
8.	Colton Herta	1300	560	740	850	800	1600	1300
8.	Takuma Sato	1300	3500	-2200	2500	2500	2000	1300
11.	Jimmie Johnson	1400	2500	-1100	2500	3000	1600	1400
12.	Tony Kanaan	1600	2000	-400	2000	1800	2000	1600
12.	Ed Carpenter	1600	4000	-2400	4000	2000	2000	1600
14.	Alexander Rossi	1800	1800	0	2000	2000	2500	1800
15.	Felix Rosenqvist	2000	3000	-1000	3000	2200	2200	2000
15.	Simon Pagenaud	2000	2500	-500	2500	2000	2500	2000
15.	Helio Castroneves	2000	1800	200	1800	1800	3000	2000
18.	Romain Grosjean	2200	3000	-800	3000	3000	3000	2200
19.	Graham Rahal	2500	2200	300	2000	2500	3000	2500
20.	Marco Andretti	4000	5000	-1000	5000	5000	5000	4000
20.	Conor Daly	4000	8000	-4000	5000	5500	5000	4000
20.	Juan Pablo Montoya	4000	3000	1000	3000	3000	8000	4000
23.	David Malukas	5000	7000	-2000	10000	10000	5000	5000
23.	Santino Ferrucci	5000	8000	-3000	8000	6000	6000	5000
25.	Kyle Kirkwood	6600	5000	1600	10000	5500	10000	6600
26.	Sage Karam	7000	10000	-3000	10000	15000	10000	7000
26.	JR Hildebrand	7000	25000	-18000	25000	20000	25000	7000
28.	Jack Harvey	8000	5000	3000	6000	6000	10000	8000
28.	Christian Lundgaard	8000	7000	1000	8000	10000	10000	8000
28.	Callum Ilott	8000	7000	1000	15000	15000	10000	8000
31.	Devlin DeFrancesco	9000	7000	2000	8000	6000	10000	9000
32.	Dalton Kellett	15000	20000	-5000	30000	30000	30000	15000

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