Much has changed in the past few weeks. While Hendrick Motorsports drivers continue to rack up wins, their dominance is being tested. Kyle Busch won at Pocono Raceway and Kurt Busch took the checkers last week at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Meanwhile, the blush is off the rose for Kyle Larson at the moment. It’s not just that he finished outside the top 15 for the second race in a row, but he did not show much strength at Atlanta Motor Speedway. In fact, all of Hendrick Motorsports seemed to be much less forceful.
Meanwhile the top 10 was fairly evenly distributed among several car owners. There was the same healthy sprinkling of dark horses we’ve come to expect on 1.5-mile tracks – and the coming weeks will probably continue that trend.
Next week the series heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway before taking a two-week break so America can watch the Olympics without distraction. When the series returns to action, it will be on a pair of road courses at Watkins Glen International and Indianapolis Motor Speedway, so there is still a lot of uncertainty in how the playoffs will shape up.
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Top 10
1. Kyle Busch (last week: 2) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 21
Weeks as #1: 1
Cup wins: 2 (Kansas 1, Pocono 2)
Power Average: 4.51
Busch ascends to the top spot for the first time this year on the back of top-five finishes in six of his last seven attempts and four consecutive top-threes. One of these was his Pocono 2 victory. Last week might have added another “W” to his total if he had not gotten held up by traffic in the closing laps of the Quaker State 400. While it seems a little odd that it took this long to get to No. 1, it seems natural to have him there.
2. Kyle Larson (last week: 1) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 18
Weeks as #1: 5
Cup wins: 4 (Las Vegas 1, Charlotte, Sonoma, Nashville)
Power Average: 4.52
One cannot hold Road America’s sub-15th-place finish against Larson; he was spun off the nose of teammate Alex Bowman. Last week would not have been as bad if not for a speeding penalty on a late pit stop. But momentum has a way of being gained or lost at whim. It is much too soon to panic over a driver with so many bonus points and four victories – and it will probably take a while for oddsmakers to consider anyone else a favorite – but gamers and gamblers will want to watch him closely over the next several weeks.
3. Chase Elliott (last week: 3)
Weeks in the top 10: 22
Weeks as #1: 4
Cup wins: 2 (COTA, Road America)
Power Average: 7.80
We didn’t expect a lot out of Elliott last week and ultimately his seventh-place finish was about right. He had the potential to run so much better, however, after leading the field from the pole. If not for an early mistake in the pits – when he skidded through his box and lost about 20 positions correcting the error – he likely would have earned a top-five with more consistent track position.
4. Denny Hamlin (last week: 7) +3
Weeks in the top 10: 22
Weeks as #1: 8
Cup wins: 0 (Points leader by +10)
Power Average: 8.30
Hamlin earned points in both stages last week and led laps. Ultimately his 13th-place finish at Atlanta was a disappointment, but he managed to add seven to his buffer over Larson in the championship standings. With another unique winner being crowned last week, that could still be important. The biggest reason to feel a sigh of relief, however, is that his three teammates were all in the top 10 and that suggests things are improving at Joe Gibbs Racing.
5. Alex Bowman (last week: 6) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 9
Cup wins: 3 (Richmond 1, Dover 1, Pocono 1)
Power Average: 8.79
Bowman’s fourth-place finish in the Quaker State 400 was not unexpected, but most experts thought one or two of his Hendrick mates would be ahead of him. Bowman’s consistency is still a bit of an issue, however. In the last 45 days he has one win, two more top-fives, two other top-10s and results of 14th and 22nd. It’s hard to know what to do with him most weeks.
6. William Byron (last week: 5) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 16
Weeks as #1: 1
Cup wins: 1 (Homestead)
Power Average: 8.89
Even more than his teammate Larson, Byron is in serious jeopardy of losing his momentum with three consecutive results outside the top 10 and four such efforts in the past 45 days. In the coming weeks strong runs at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Nashville Superspeedway, and Pocono are going to age out of the Power Ranking formula and with a two-week break coming up, Bowman could easily find himself outside the top 10 soon.
7. Joey Logano (last week: 4) -3
Weeks in the top 10: 22
Weeks as #1: 1
Cup wins: 1 (Bristol dirt)
Power Average: 9.58
Team Penske improved their results last week with top-10s for Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski. During the Quaker State 400 it was reported that Logano tried Blaney’s winning setup from this spring’s Atlanta 1 race, but he did not seem to have any idea of what to do with it. His ill-handling car almost fell outside the top 20. Logano did fall off the lead lap. The good news is that New Hampshire is a track that has consistently been kinder to the Northeast native.
8. Kurt Busch (last week: 9) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 4
Cup wins: 1 (Atlanta 2)
Power Average: 9.74
Earlier this year we predicted that a consistent bet on Busch – without wagering on him on the plate tracks – would net a positive result. Last week he won with odds of +3300 and covered that prediction. Now that he has one win, it is no more or less likely that he will get another, so if you want cash in on your advantage, stop betting on him for the time being and see if he is capable of sustaining this momentum.
9. Tyler Reddick (last week: 8) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 10
Cup wins: 0
Power Average: 10.41
Reddick was one of our dark horse picks for a top-10 finish last week [/edge/article/best-bets/quaker-state-400-dark-horses]. He came close to earning a rare top-five and had one of his best overall efforts in quite some while. If he shows plus odds for a top-10 again at New Hampshire, place the wager with confidence and look for other key group matchups at PointsBet Sportsbook.
10. Brad Keselowski (last week: 11) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 14
Cup wins: 1 (Talladega 1)
Power Average: 11.36
Keselowski’s top-10 finish at Atlanta was not flashy, but it points the team in the right direction. He has quietly amassed three such finishes in the last four weeks – including a third at Pocono 2. He has another pair of top-15s in the past 45. One has to walk before they can run.
Other drivers with wins, not among the top 10: Martin Truex Jr. ([3] Phoenix 1, Martinsville 1, Darlington 1), Michael McDowell (Daytona 1), Christopher Bell (Daytona road), Ryan Blaney (Atlanta 1), and Brad Keselowski (Talladega 1).
Winners, Last 45 Days (Opening Outright Odds to win)
Atlanta, Kurt Busch (+3300)
Road America, Chase Elliott (+300)
Pocono 2, Kyle Busch (+700)
Pocono 1, Alex Bowman (+2200)
Nashville, Kyle Larson (+300)
Save Mart 350k, Kyle Larson (+850)
Coke 600, Kyle Larson (+450)
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Power Average, Last 45 Days
This | Driver | Power | Last | Difference |
1. | 4.51 | 2 | 1 | |
2. | 4.52 | 1 | -1 | |
3. | 7.80 | 3 | 0 | |
4. | 8.30 | 7 | 3 | |
5. | 8.79 | 6 | 1 | |
6. | 8.89 | 5 | -1 | |
7. | 9.58 | 4 | -3 | |
8. | 9.74 | 9 | 1 | |
9. | 10.41 | 8 | -1 | |
10. | 11.36 | 11 | 1 | |
| ||||
11. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 11.53 | 12 | 1 |
12. | 12.00 | 14 | 2 | |
13. | 14.05 | 15 | 2 | |
14. | 14.23 | 16 | 2 | |
15. | 15.43 | 22 | 7 | |
16. | 15.60 | 18 | 2 | |
17. | 15.73 | 23 | 6 | |
18. | 15.73 | 13 | -5 | |
19. | 17.51 | 26 | 7 | |
20. | 18.13 | 25 | 5 | |
21. | 18.25 | 24 | 3 | |
22. | 18.76 | 19 | -3 | |
23. | 18.88 | 21 | -2 | |
24. | 19.67 | 10 | -14 | |
25. | 20.06 | 20 | -5 | |
26. | 20.55 | 27 | 1 | |
27. | 23.83 | 17 | -10 | |
28. | 24.06 | 31 | 3 | |
29. | 24.22 | 29 | 0 | |
30. | 25.53 | 30 | 0 | |
31. | 26.19 | 28 | -3 | |
32. | 27.00 | 32 | 0 | |
33. | 27.13 | 36 | 3 | |
34. | 27.80 | 34 | 0 | |
35. | 28.06 | 33 | -2 | |
36. | 28.40 | 35 | -1 | |
37. | 29.81 | 37 | 0 | |
38. | 29.92 | 39 | 1 | |
39. | 30.00 | 38 | -1 | |
40. | 30.25 | 39 | -1 | |
41. | 30.45 | 41 | 0 | |
42. | 31.70 | 42 | 0 | |
43. | 32.31 | 44 | 1 | |
44. | 32.40 | 43 | -1 | |
45. | 34.38 | 47 | 2 | |
46. | 34.45 | 45 | -1 | |
47. | 34.55 | 46 | -1 | |
48. | 35.40 | 49 | 1 | |
49. | 36.80 | 48 | -1 | |
50. | Ryan Eversley | 37.60 | 50 | 0 |
