The two-week break had a substantial impact on the Power Rankings.
In order to keep things consistent, there is a 45-day lookback for this evaluation. If we looked at only one month of data, only three races would be considered following an off week. Two months of data would mean that we are looking at races that no longer provide any momentum for that driver.
This week two races dropped out of the formula: the Toyota / Save Mart 350k at Sonoma Raceway and the Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway. That means the period under consideration is from Pocono Raceway through Watkins Glen International.
Drivers and teams seem to be lobbying for the two-week break to become a regular part of the schedule in future seasons. It will be interesting to see if NASCAR listens.
In 2021, this two-week break will provide a watershed. And the sense of urgency over the final four weeks of the regular season is ramping up. The good news for three drivers who hope to make the playoffs based on points is that Kyle Larson’s win at Sonoma did not change the metric this week. The bad news for them is there is still a mathematical chance that the playoffs will be completely filled with race winners and all three drivers on the cusp could fall out.
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Top 10
1. Kyle Larson (last week: 1)
Weeks in the top 10: 20
Weeks as #1: 7
Cup wins: 5 (Las Vegas 1, Charlotte, Sonoma, Nashville, Watkins Glen)
Power Average: 6.85
The question of whether Larson’s Sonoma win earlier this year was a fluke was answered at the Glen. His second road course victory and third top-two in five races this season underscores that he can race on any track type. More importantly, he is currently tied for the points’ lead and potentially adds 20 more playoff bonus points to his total. He doesn’t want to peak early, but he is also not showing any signs of slowing down. Currently, Larson has 37 playoff points and if he ends as the regular season champion, that becomes 52.
2. Denny Hamlin (last week: 4) +2
Weeks in the top 10: 24
Weeks as #1: 8
Cup wins: 0 (tied for points’ lead, loses on tie-breaker)
Power Average: 7.50
Hamlin really needs to regain the points lead. With it gone and without a regular season win, he is technically vulnerable to elimination. And while it is unlikely that there will be three more unique winners in the next three weeks, Hamlin needs a modicum of momentum to carry him into the playoffs. He has five bonus points based on stage wins and should have another 10 or so with his regular season position in the standings, but that is not enough of a cushion against one bad race.
3. Kyle Busch (last week: 2) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 23
Weeks as #1: 1
Cup wins: 2 (Kansas 1, Pocono 2)
Power Average: 7.54
Busch is gaining momentum at the right time. If not for the early accident at New Hampshire Motor Speedway because of a non-caution for rain, he would probably have a six-race streak of top-fives to his credit that includes a Pocono win. In NASCAR it is amazing how quickly circumstances change. He should still have a win or two left in him before the season is over and we may start to think of him as a serious championship contender soon.
4. Tyler Reddick (last week: 9) +5
Weeks in the top 10: 12
Cup wins: 0
Power Average: 7.82
Sitting 12th in the standings, Reddick is on the cusp of elimination by 15 points unless he manages to win in the coming weeks. If there is a new unique winner below him in the standings, it would take a miracle to catch Kevin Harvick. Additionally, Reddick could be caught and passed by teammate Austin Dillon. The upside of consistency is that Reddick is one of the most predictable drivers in the field. The downside is that consistent top-15s just may not cut it.
5. Ryan Blaney (last week: 13) +8
Weeks in the top 10: 11
Cup wins: 1 (Atlanta 1)
Power Average: 8.76
With a terrible effort at Nashville dropping out of the formula, Blaney shoots up the rankings. In his last six attempts, he’s finished either fifth or sixth four times – and the two times he failed to finish that well came on the road courses of Road America and Watkins Glen. That is a good indication that he will perform well on the unrestricted ovals that make up the bulk of the playoffs and could be a sign that his fortune is about to turn around.
6. Kurt Busch (last week: 3) -3
Weeks in the top 10: 6
Cup wins: 1 (Atlanta 2)
Power Average: 9.08
Busch’s win at Atlanta 2 continues to have a ripple effect and will do so through the first round of the playoffs. It was not enough to secure the ride at Trackhouse Racing in 2021 and Busch will probably fail to advance to the Round of 12, but throughout his career he has shown remarkable consistency. Look for more efforts hovering around the top 15, of which he has seven in the last eight races, and make your decisions accordingly.
7. Martin Truex, Jr. (last week: 10) +3
Weeks in the top 10: 16
Weeks as #1: 2
Cup wins: 3 (Phoenix 1, Martinsville 1, Darlington 1)
Power Average: 9.40
Truex has been unpredictable for most of the season. That was not the case last week. After a solid showing at Sonoma, we suspected he would challenge for a top-three at the Glen and he did. Unfortunately, that single strong run is not enough to predict that the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota is pointed in the right direction. A third-place finish there and at Atlanta in the last 45 days are joined by three results outside the top 10, so bettors and fantasy players should continue to exercise caution.
8. Brad Keselowski (last week: 8)
Weeks in the top 10: 16
Cup wins: 1 (Talladega 1)
Power Average: 9.66
The Power Rankings aren’t perfect. Keselowski remains among the top 10 in part because of his strong start to the Go Bowling at the Glen that improved his Average Running Position this week. He earned the pole, however, because of a third-place finish at New Hampshire and also has a third at Pocono 2 – and those also factor into the formula. A couple of top-10s in the other four races are enough to keep him among the leaders, but he lacks the consistency to make him a good bet with relatively low odds at PointsBet Sportsbook.
9. Kevin Harvick (last week: 12) +3
Weeks in the top 10: 17
Cup wins: 0
Power Average: 9.89
The Stewart-Haas Racing organization is improving, but there is still a long way to go before Harvick is considered a weekly threat. For the moment, he needs to maximize his runs and hope there are not two more unique winners to the season. After that, the focus shifts slightly to clearing the hurdle to get into the Round of 12 and then the Round of 8. With no playoff points to his credit, however, and only one or two coming for his regular season points’ standing, he’s facing an uphill battle unless he can suddenly remember how to win.
10. Chase Elliott (last week: 6) -4
Weeks in the top 10: 24
Weeks as #1: 4
Cup wins: 2 (COTA, Road America)
Power Average: 9.91
Elliott is in jeopardy of being labeled a one-trick pony. And when the team gets caught coloring outside the lines on the only track type where he is truly expected to run well and he is forced to the back of the pack, the shading on that horse gets darker. One thing we learned last week, however, is just how incredible he is on road courses. Coming from the back of the field twice to finish second was a worth the price of admission at the Glen.
Other drivers with wins, not among the top 10: Alex Bowman ([3] Richmond 1, Dover 1, and Pocono 1), Joey Logano (Bristol dirt), William Byron (Homestead), Michael McDowell (Daytona 1), Christopher Bell (Daytona road), and Aric Almirola (New Hampshire).
Dropped from the Top 10
11. Alex Bowman (last week: 5) -6
Weeks in the top 10: 10
Cup wins: 3 (Richmond 1, Dover 1, Pocono 1)
Power Average: 10.48
In the past 45 days, Bowman’s Achilles Heel has been the road courses. He ran well at Road America until his brakes faded and he damaged his car. Last week, he simply failed to find the front pack. On the four oval courses, he has a perfect record of top-10s. Unfortunately two of these, a win and seventh at Pocono, are about to age out of the formula so it may be awhile before he gets back into the top 10.
13. Joey Logano (last week: 7) -6
Weeks in the top 10: 23
Weeks as #1: 1
Cup wins: 1 (Bristol dirt)
Power Average: 11.11
We expected more from Logano at the Glen and he might have challenged for a top-five if his teammate Keselowski had not spun into the side of him with brake fade. That single race is not why he fell out of the top 10, however. A 22nd at the Glen is joined by a 15th at Road America and a 19th at Atlanta 2. Worse still, he just has not performed particularly well.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Opening Outright Odds to win)
Watkins Glen, Kyle Larson (+475)
New Hampshire, Aric Almirola (-9000)
Atlanta, Kurt Busch (+3300)
Road America, Chase Elliott (+300)
Pocono 2, Kyle Busch (+700)
Pocono 1, Alex Bowman (+2200)
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Power Average, Last 45 Days
This | Driver | Power | Last | Difference |
1. | 6.85 | 1 | 0 | |
2. | 7.50 | 4 | 2 | |
3. | 7.54 | 2 | -1 | |
4. | 7.82 | 9 | 5 | |
5. | 8.76 | 13 | 8 | |
6. | 9.08 | 3 | -3 | |
7. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 9.40 | 10 | 3 |
8. | 9.66 | 8 | 0 | |
9. | 9.89 | 12 | 3 | |
10. | 9.91 | 6 | -4 | |
| ||||
11. | 10.48 | 5 | -6 | |
12. | 10.80 | 11 | -1 | |
13. | 11.11 | 7 | -6 | |
14. | 11.52 | 14 | 0 | |
15. | 13.03 | 18 | 3 | |
16. | 14.27 | 16 | 0 | |
17. | 14.31 | 15 | -2 | |
18. | 16.09 | 17 | -1 | |
19. | 16.74 | 19 | 0 | |
20. | 17.77 | 20 | 0 | |
21. | 19.67 | 21 | 0 | |
22. | 20.93 | 24 | 2 | |
23. | Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. | 21.60 | 23 | 0 |
24. | 22.34 | 27 | 3 | |
25. | 22.70 | 25 | 0 | |
26. | 23.52 | 22 | -4 | |
27. | 24.00 | 26 | -1 | |
28. | 25.24 | 31 | 3 | |
29. | 25.59 | 29 | 0 | |
30. | 26.38 | 30 | 0 | |
31. | 27.00 | 32 | 1 | |
32. | 27.56 | 33 | 1 | |
33. | 27.60 | 28 | -5 | |
34. | 30.25 | 38 | 4 | |
35. | 30.80 | 39 | 4 | |
36. | 31.16 | 41 | 5 | |
37. | 31.46 | 36 | -1 | |
38. | RC Enerson | 32.25 |
| NA |
39. | 32.46 | 40 | 1 | |
40. | 33.10 | 43 | 3 | |
41. | 33.83 | 42 | 1 | |
42. | 34.52 | 47 | 5 | |
43. | 35.78 | 49 | 6 | |
44. | 36.20 | 46 | 2 | |
45. | Ryan Eversley | 37.60 | 50 | 5 |
