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Nikola Jokić O/U 46.5 PRA vs. Thunder
The Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokić had three days of rest after the loss to the Lakers, while the Thunder played on Tuesday. This is a revenge spot for the Thunder as the Nuggets won the first meeting 122-117 this season.
Jokic recorded 19 points, 16 rebounds and 13 assists versus OKC (48 PRA) and only recorded 10 field goal attempts. The Joker should be more aggressive here and the books labeled his triple-double prop at +200, so they expect another big all-around performance.
The Thunder rank second-worst in points and rebounds per game to opposing centers, plus 12th-worst in assists per game. Over the past four meetings versus OKC, Jokic averages 24.5 points, 15.5 rebounds and 7.7 assists (47.7 PRA) and hit the Over 46.5 PRA twice with 46 and 42 as the two Unders.
This season off a loss, Jokic posted 48 PRA versus the Warriors and 53 PRA against the Lakers. This is a much better matchup for Jokic and with three days of rest or more last season, Jokic averaged 25.9 points, 12.7 rebounds and 6.4 assists over 32.8 minutes and seven games (45.0 PRA).
NBC’s player prop model predicts Jokic to record 26.6 points, 13.7 rebounds and 7.9 assists over 33 minutes for 48.2 PRA. I like the chances Jokic has to post a 20-20 game in this matchup and/or triple-double.
I played the Over 46.5 PRA at -122 odds on FanDuel and would play this to 47.5 PRA or pivot to Over 21.5 R+A.
Pick: Nikola Jokić Over 46.5 PRA (1u)
Wendell Carter Jr. O/U 9.5 Rebounds vs. Warriors
In a two-game slate, let’s go to the team with the big men versus the team with little to no big men.
Golden State’s defense has allowed the most points per game to centers and the sixth-most rebounds per game.
Versus teams that ranked bottom 10 in rebounds per game to centers this season, WCJ hit the Over in four out of five games with totals of 11, 12, 11, 5 and 12 rebounds versus the Pistons, Celtics, Knicks, Hornets and Thunder, in that order.
The Warriors rank 24th in defensive net rating, 18th in opposing rebounds and 25th in rebounding percentage. In WCJ’s last four meetings versus the Warriors, he averages 14.7 points and 11.2 rebounds over 32.3 minutes per game.
3/22/22: 19 points and 8 rebounds in 33 minutes
12/6/21: 14 points and 12 rebounds in 30 minutes
12/27/20: 22 points and 13 rebounds in 31 minutes
12/6/19: 4 points and 12 rebounds in 35 minutes
I like the chances he double-doubles and with his rebound prop moving from +100 to -120 at most places, WCJ is one of the bets bets in this game.
With WCJ guarding Kevon Looney, WCJ will more than likely be in or around the paint for most of the night. Other Magic bigs like Paolo Banchero, Bol Bol and Mo Bamba all like to play in transition and shoot threes.
While WCJ can shoot triples as well, it’s more likely he will be camped out down low tonight cleaning the glass. NBC’s player prop model projects 10.7 rebounds in 30 minutes versus Golden State.
I played WCJ Over 9.5 Rebounds at +100 odds. I would play this to -125.
Pick: Wendell Carter Over 9.5 Rebounds (1u)
Jordan Poole O/U 20.5 Points + Assists vs. Magic
Jordan Poole and the Warriors are in a desperation spot after losing another road game, making them 0-3 on this road trip with two games remaining, including this one versus the Orlando Magic.
Poole has played three teams this year that rank bottom 10 versus shooting guards in points per game or assists per game. In those three games versus the Pistons, Kings and Hornets, Poole hit Over 20.5 Points + Assists all three times averaging 30.0 Points + Assists.
Orlando’s guards are Jalen Suggs, RJ Hampton, Kevon Harris and maybe Terrence Ross (day-to-day) for tonight.
I love this matchup for Poole in a bounce back spot after scoring nine points on 3-of-10 from the field (30%) and 1-of-7 from three (14.3%) versus Miami. Poole was also the focal point in the new carry-rule controversy versus Miami, which should not be called nearly as much tonight, if at all.
Poole has shot at least 15 field goal attempts in the past three meetings versus Orlando with two starts and one appearance off the bench.
Poole recorded 32, 19 and 23 Points + Assists in those three games against Orlando on 21-of-57 from the field (36.8%), 11-of-29 from three (37.9%) and a perfect 6-for-6 from the free-throw line.
The Magic rank second-worst in assists to opposing shooting guards, 10th-worst in three-pointers made and 14th in points per game. On the road, Poole averages 20.0 points per game and 3.8 assists over 32.0 minutes.
Last year, Poole averaged more points (18.6) and assists (4.1) on the road than at home. This year, Poole averages a career-high 5.0 assists per game on 10.4 potential assists per game.
He could certainly post five-plus assists here and then all we need is 15-16 points and it’s a Poole Party.
I played Poole Over 20.5 Points + Assists on DraftKings at -120 odds. I would play this to Over 21.5 or pivot to Over 4.5 Assists.
Pick: Jordan Poole Over 20.5 Points + Assists (1u)
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