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76ers at Raptors (-1.5): O/U 213.5
In February of 2021, these teams played the same format with a home and home for Toronto two days apart.
The Raptors won the first game 110-103 at +3 home dogs and the 76ers won the second 109-102 as +2.5 road dogs.
Toronto is 9-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings versus Philadelphia and that loss was the only non-cover.
This week, the Raptors beat the 76ers 119-109 in Toronto and face them again in Toronto two days later.
This spread opened at Raptors -1 after the 76ers laid -1.5 on Wednesday.
The 76ers are now 1-4 on the season after that loss and while I am enjoying the Nets and Lakers lose (except vs Denver), the 76ers are not really in that same category to me.
Pascal Siakam came out blazing in the first quarter of the previous meeting versus the 76ers with 15 points but finished with 20. Philly will implement that same defense and make some adjustments on offense with a days rest and no travel.
Joel Embiid and James Harden combined for 49 points, 12 assists and 12 rebounds. That was arguably their second-worst game combined so far this season and the 29 combined field goal attempts was the fewest between the two.
Expect more Harden plus Embiid and don’t be surprised if Tobias Harris has a big game after 3 points on 1-of-5 from the field (20%), while Tyrese Maxey scored 31 points on 12-of-21 (57.1%).
I grabbed the 76ers +1.5 at -110 odds on BetMGM and played the ML too.
The only reason why Toronto is favored now is because they won the previous meeting.
The the spread will likely move back and forth during the day between 76ers -1 to 76ers +2.
Update: This was before the Joel Embiid is questionable news. The line is Raptors -2 now. Trust in Harden!
Pick: 76ers ML (1.5u)
DeMar DeRozan O/U 25.5 Points vs. Spurs
In two games as a Chicago Bull, DeMar DeRozan scored 32 and 40 points against his former Spurs team.
In those two games versus San Antonio, DeRozan was a remarkable 29-of-46 from the field (63%) and a perfect 13-of-13 from the free-throw line.
Zach LaVine is questionable for this game and I would not be surprised to see him sit and let DeRozan and the youngsters cook versus Gregg Popovich and his youngsters.
San Antonio allowed Anthony Edwards score 34, Karl Anthony-Towns put up 27, Joel Embiid recorded 40 points, while Tyrese Haliburton scored 27 and Terry Rozier had 24 points as the game-high scorers for opponents.
Through five games, the Spurs allow 121.6 points per game (26th) and the Bulls don’t mind playing a track meet.
Four out of five Bulls games this season have had at least one team score 116 points and that could happen again here. This should be 27.5 to 28.5 if LaVine is out.
NBC’s player prop model projects DeRozan at 26.7 points with LaVine playing. He’s going for 30-plus points.
I played this Over 25.5 Points at -115 odds on DraftKings and would play this at 26.5 and 27.5.
Pick: DeMar DeRozan Over 25.5 Points (1.5u)
LAKERS AT TIMBERWOLVES (-7): O/U 229.5
Minnesota allows 116.6 points per game through five contests. In their three wins, the Wolves permitted 108, 106 and 122 points for 112.0 points per game. The Lakers Team Total opens at 111.5 on the road.
Compared to Oklahoma City and San Antonio, you would think the L.A. Lakers offense is better but watching them you might disagree.
The Lakers are shooting an NBA-worst 22.3% from three, 41.6% from the field and scoring 102.5 points per game, also last place. Even with poor shooting, the Lakers are not aggressive as they attempt 21.8 free-throw attempts, which is 25th.
With Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns down low, I imagine points should be hard to come by for the Lakers. Los Angeles’ season-high was 109 points against the Warriors and since then they have not surpassed 104 points.
The Lakers’ defensive net rating is 4th at 104.0, so if they can slow the game down a little on defense, I really like the chances Los Angeles goes Under 111.5 points.
The Lakers will have either play an extremely fast-paced game to go Over this team total number or get hot from downtown tonight. I will fade that.
Last season, Minnesota covered all four spreads and went 3-1 on the ML versus Los Angeles.
The Under was 4-0 and the Lakers scored 108 or fewer points in all four games.
I played the Lakers Team Total Under 111.5 at -120 odds on BetMGM. I would play this down to 109.5.
Pick: Lakers Team Total Under 111.5 (1u)
Other Notes:
Cavaliers at Celtics (-5.5): O/U 216.5
The Under has hit in four-straight meetings between these two teams and the total moved from 219.0 to 216.5.
However, without Robert Williams, Cleveland could find itself putting up plenty of points in the paint. On the other end, Boston could be living or dying by the triple with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen down low for Cleveland.
The Celtics are 0-2 ATS in the last two games and the Cavs are on a three-game ATS winning streak. Cleveland has my attention today and will be considered along with the Under. The Cavs were ATS kings at one point last season.
Knicks at Bucks (-6): O/U 223.5
The Bucks are 3-0 on the ML and ATS to start the season behind Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s 36.0 points, 13.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game. Giannis scored 38 points in the previous meeting against the Knicks and scored at least 24 points in 11-straight home games versus New York.
Ja Morant put up 34 points on the Knicks in the season-opener and after GIannis’ 44 and 43 point games versus the Rockets and Nets, I might have to continuing riding The Greak Freak Express, which is now at O/U 33.5 Points.
We will see. We will see.
Lakers at Timberwolves (-7.5): O/U 226.5
Anthony Edwards had a season-high 34 points in his previous game versus the Spurs after making comments about how he needed to play better. At age 21, Edwards has already played the Lakers six times in his career. Ant-Man scored 27 or more points three times and attempted at least 19 field goals in five of those six meetings.
Edwards’ player prop is at 23.5 points and something worth considering versus the Lake “Show”
The Lakers are 0-4 ATS and on the ML to start the season. Los Angeles faces Denver at home on Sunday, the same Nuggets team the Lakers lost to on Wednesday. It’s possible the Lakers start 0-6 ATS and on the ML.
Minnesota will be considered.
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