Editor’s Note: Use promo code HOOPS5 for your $5 Rotoworld Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide. Get up to date rankings, projections, mock drafts, and more. Plus access to season tools to keep you at the top of your league. Get it here.
Warriors at Suns (-1.5): O/U 225.5
The Golden State Warriors are playing their first road game of the season when they visit the Phoenix Suns.
The Suns opened up with Mavericks, Blazers and Clippers, going 2-0-1 to the Under, while the Warriors are 3-0 to the Over versus the Lakers, Nuggets and Kings.
The Warriors lead the NBA in possessions per game (113.4), while the Suns are 21st (102.1). With these squads playing completely different paces and styles, we turn to the rosters and rotations.
For the Suns, it’s hard to trust Landry Shamet, Jock Landale, Damion Lee, Cameron Payne and Torrey Craig defensively. The Warriors bench averages 42.0 points per game (8th) and gets the free-throw line 13.3 time per game (2nd), but oddly enough are -10 in plus-minus, which is second-worst in the NBA.
So the Warriors’ bench is scoring a ton, but getting outscored as well. As they make their first road start, the Suns should find success on offense because those same guys I don’t like defensively, I like a lot more offensively.
We don’t have to cap Devin Booker, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Deandre Ayton and all those starters opposed to the bench, because the starters will do what they do in a competitive Western Conference game.
Since the start of the 2018 season, the Under is 12-3 (80%) in the regular-season when the Suns and Warriors meet, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Over the last seven meetings in Phoenix, the Under hit six-straight before the Over hit on Christmas Day in 2021.
While I would normally back the under in this situation based on that strong trend, there are plenty of factors that point to this game being higher-scoring, including the total moving from 224.0 to 225.5 overnight.
I played the Over 225.5 at -110 odds. I would play this to 227.0.
Pick: Over 225.5 (1u)
Editor’s Note: Now, all our premium tools for Fantasy, DFS and Betting are included in one subscription at one low price. Customers can subscribe to NBC Sports EDGE+ monthly for $9.99. Click here to learn more!
