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NBA FINALS GAME 5 PICKS, PLAYER PROPS: Jayson TATUM, Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson

Klay Thompson

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

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Klay Thompson O/U 19.5 Points vs. Celtics

We target Klay Thompson in Game 5 at Oracle Arena versus the Celtics.

Thompson averages 17.3 points per game over the four NBA Finals contests dropping 15, 11, 25 and 18 points in that order. Over his last two games versus Boston, Thompson has shot 41.2% from the field, 39.1% from three and a perfect 6-for-6 from the free-throw line.

The Warriors star has knocked down 41% or better from the field in three of four Finals games.

Thompson has grown stronger as series have gone on with performances of 15, 19, 32 and 30 points over three Game 5’s and one Game 6 (24.0 points per game). In his three Game 5’s, Thompson averages 22.0 points per game on 24-of-50 from the field (48%) and 42.8% from deep on 12-of-28.

He’s played 39 and 41 minutes in the past two games. In the NBA Finals at home, when he plays at least 37 minutes, he is 6-3 to the Over 19.5 points (66.6%).

Since the 2017-18 NBA Finals, Thompson is 8-5 to the Over 19.5 points (61.5%) for 20.2 points per game, per statmuse. He is 4-3 to the Over at home during that stretch (57.1%) and played 30 and 34 minutes in two of the three Unders. I expect at least 37 minutes from Thompson in Game 5.

Klay

Klay

The icing on the cake, on Sunday, Thompson posted to his Instagram story while out on the ocean and commenting “the ocean frees the mind, body and soul”.

Thompson is certainly feeling good being back home in the Bay Area with an opportunity to go up 3-2 in the NBA Finals.

After Game 4, Thompson commented how well Stephen Curry has played, but the Warriors role players will have to step up scoring, him included. I expect that to happen in Game 5 at home where he averages 18.9 points per game in the postseason.

I played Thompson Over 19.5 points (-106) and would play Over 20.5. I also like the ladder on his points and three-pointers made for lunch money.

Pick: Klay Thompson Over 19.5 Points (1.5u)

Jayson Tatum Over 26.5 Points vs. Warriors

The bounce back king is back. Jayson Tatum and the Celtics have been phenomenal this postseason coming off a loss. The Celtics star averages 30.7 points per game following seven losses and 5-2 to the Over (71.4%).

Tatum has been a star all postseason, especially on the road. He is 7-4 to the Over 26.5 points away from Boston (63.6%), per statmuse, which will be necessary if the Celtics want to win the game outright.

Tatum already had his bad outing in Game 1 with 12 points, so I expect him to have nothing but solid outings from here on out. The Celtics need that.

Tatum

Tatum

Tatum has scored 26 points coming off a loss in his past two tries, which makes this line sharp. However, Tatum has yet to score 30-plus points in the NBA Finals and he acknowledged during his postgame interview following Game 4 that he has to shoot better and get more freebies in this new three-game series.

The Celtics star has attempted at least eight triples in three straight games and at least five free-throw attempts in all four Finals games. I would not be shocked to see Tatum attempt 10-plus threes or double-digit free-throw attempts.

He stepped up his shot attempts in the past two games, attempting 23 field goals apiece after 17 and 19 shots in Games 1 and 2. Tatum is 7-4 to the Over 26.5 points in the postseason with 20 or more field goal attempts (63.6%) and you better believe he should see 20-plus shots in Game 5.

I grabbed Tatum Over 26.5 Points for -125 odds. I would play the Over 27.5 as well for better odds or a smaller bet on 30-plus points, something he has done seven times in the playoffs and yet to in the NBA Finals.

Tatum will be a solid bet over the next two or three games for 30-plus each night, but I will settle on the 26.5 - 27.5.

Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 26.5 Points (1.5u)

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