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Clint Capela O/U 23.5 PTS+REB vs. Bucks
Clint Capela was on fire to end the regular season. He averaged 14.2 points and 12.4 rebounds in his final seven games, all in May.
His postseason matchups with Julius Randle and Joel Embiid have been tough asks for his first-ever postseason series, but Capela has responded with six double-doubles and nine games of 30-plus minutes out of 12.
Versus the Bucks this season, Capela averaged 11.0 points and 15.0 rebounds in two meetings. Capela posted a monster double-double of 16 points and 16 rebounds in 37 minutes in the first meeting. The next outing, Capela posted six points and 14 boards in 34 minutes.
In Game 1’s of the postseason, Capela has recorded 9 points and 13 rebounds versus New York and 11 points and 10 rebounds against Philadelphia.
This will be his best matchup yet, getting Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, P.J. Tucker and Giannis Antetokounmpo defensively.
NBC’s model projects Capela to record 11.2 points and 11.3 rebounds in 33 minutes. Capela averaged 34.0 minutes in the first series and 33.0 in the second.
On the season, Capela averages 31.9 points and rebounds at 33 or more minutes. In the postseason, Capela has hit the Over 23.5 P+R in 4-of-7 (57.1%) games at 33-plus minutes and 6-of-12 (50%) overall.
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Capela has cashed the Over six times in the past 10 outings (60%) and seven of the previous 10 at 35-plus minutes, per props.cash.
Over the last seven games, the Bucks allow 43.8 rebounds to opponents and 42.9 in the postseason. Milwaukee permits 35.4 defensive rebounds, as do the Hawks in the playoffs, both tied for 12th of 16 teams.
Capela has the sixth-most rebound chances per game in the playoffs at 18.4, right behind Giannis (18.7). Capela brings down 11.6 per game, so a 63% success rate for boards in the postseason.
Offensively, Capela averages 10.3 points per game in the playoffs on 4.7 made shots and 7.7 attempts (60.9%). Capela recorded at least seven field goal attempts in eight straight games and 10-of-12 (83.3%).
Capela has only hit this once on the road in the postseason: Game 5 versus the Knicks, so buyer beware of this prop. However, Capela has played significant minutes on the road, playing 35 or more in 4-of-7 and 32-plus in 6-of-7.
I see a double-double coming for Capela and a possible big night on the boards. Back him to either double-double or go Over his points and rebounds prop.
Pick: Clint Capela Over 23.5 P+R (1u)
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