Deandre Ayton Over/Under 10.5 REB vs. Kings
Deandre Ayton has arguably the most favorable matchup of any player on this short four-game slate. The Suns’ center will face the NBA’s worst rebounding team over the last three, five and 10 games.
Over the last five games, the Kings have allowed the most rebounds in the league at 50.6 per game and 39.4 of them being defensive boards. Over the last three games, those numbers are even worse at 53.0 and 41.7. Sacramento ranks 29th, second-worst, over the last 10 games with 48.6 rebounds per game (RPG).
The Kings have allowed centers to have their way in April. Without much size in the paint, the opposing team’s starting center has averaged 10.8 RPG over the last seven outings. In the previous five, the Over 10.5 has cashed four times and centers average 12.6 RPG.
Wizards: Alex Len - 10 Rebounds (Westbrook, 15)
Pelicans: Steven Adams - 16 Rebounds
Jazz: Rudy Gobert - 11 Rebounds (O’Neale, 14)
Pistons: Isaiah Stewart - 13 Rebounds
Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns - 13 Rebounds
Bucks: Brook Lopez - 4 Rebounds (DiVencenzio, 14)
Lakers: Marc Gasol - 9 Rebounds (Harrell, Caldwell-Pope 10)
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Ayton has averaged 10.1 RPG in April and had 10 or more boards in five-of-seven games. Ayton has recorded 11 or more in three of those seven contests. In his two single-digit performances, one was a blowout win over the Thunder and another he faced Bam Adebayo, which presented issues, of course.
When he plays 30-39 minutes this season, Ayton averages 12.6 RPG (26 games). When he plays 20-29 minutes this season, his rebound average dips to 9.1 RPG (26 games). The key will be that 30-minute mark.
NBC’s model projects Ayton to post 9.7 RPG on 29 minutes tonight. That is a promising number with the spread at -12, but just because that is the spread does not mean it will be a blowout.
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When I factor in what he has done in his last outing, three and five games, rather than his season stats, his projection goes up to 11.3 for tonight.
Ayton had a day off Wednesday and only played 27 minutes versus the Heat, so he should be ready to roll for this matchup. In his first two games versus the Kings this season, Ayton recorded 12 and 15 rebounds in 29 and 30 minutes.
Ayton recorded 9 and 11 boards in 2019-20 versus Sacramento and 9, 9, 11 and 12 boards in his rookie season. His career average against the Kings is 11.0 boards in eight games, going Over 10.5 in five-of-eight and three of the previous four.
If this game is a blowout, expect plenty of shots from both squads and Ayton to be on the primary beneficiary on the boards. I would play Ayton at 10+ rebounds or the Over 10.5 up to 11.0 or a half-unit on 11.5. I also recommend a double-double as a parlay piece if odds surpass -150 odds.
Pick: Deandre Ayton Over 10.5 Rebounds (1.5u)
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