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Titans at Bills (-9.5): O/U 47.5
Double revenge spot! Tennessee beat Buffalo two seasons in a row by scores of 34-31 and 42-16 and those are the type of scores you don’t forget.
In 2020 and 2021, the Titans were a completely different team and much more talented, but in 2022, I am not convinced this is even a playoff team.
All you will see on Twitter is the Titans are an amazing 13-3 ATS as an underdog of 4-plus points with 12 outright wins.
However, Mike Vrabel has only been a road underdog of 10-plus points once and it was in 2018 at the jaguars and they covered but lost 9-6. This is only the second-time Vrabel is a dog of 10-plus points.
I don’t trust the Titans without A.J. Brown. This is not the same team and a loss to the New York Giants proved that.
Last season, without Brown, the Titans averaged 17.5 points per game versus the Jaguars, Jets, Steelers and Patriots. Tennessee went 1-3 on the ML, only beating Jacksonville, who had the No. 1 pick.
Tennessee lost as -5.5 or -6 point favorite versus the Giants at home in Week 1. The Titans managed 20 points with only seven points coming in the second-half. If Buffalo’s offense is humming similar to Week 1, Tennessee will not be able to hang with the Bills superstar QB Josh Allen.
Speaking of Allen, he is 4-1-2 ATS and 7-0 on the ML as a home double-digit favorite. When Allen is a double-digit favorite overall, he is 5-2-2 ATS and 8-1 on the ML.
Allen and the Bills will be ready on prime time and will not look ahead to Miami next week. This is a double revenge spot and you know Allen and Sean McDermott want to win this game in blowout fashion.
Buffalo also had extra days of rest from playing on Thursday Night Football to prepare for this game since Tennessee played on Sunday. I would play Buffalo at -9.5 on DraftKings or -10 everywhere else.
This was the last leg of my Circa Millions Contest picks and if this cashes, we are 4-1 ATS on our five picks this week.
Pick: Bills -9.5 (1u)
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K.J. Osborn O/U 2.5 Receptions vs. Eagles
In Week 1, only three wideouts played for the Vikings, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn.
Osborn recorded three receptions on four targets in Week 1 for 14 yards. While those numbers are underwhelming, they were similar to Adam Thielen‘s line (3 rec, 4 targ, 36 yards) and this is a positive matchup in the slot.
Avonte Maddox will be the slot corner for Philly and in Week 1, he faced Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Lions WR who lined up in the slot 86.8% of the time.
St. Brown finished with eight receptions on 12 targets for 64 yards and a touchdown (34 routes against Maddox). Maddox allowed three receptions on four targets for 34 yards in man-to-man versus St. Brown, per PlayerProfiler.
Osborn led the Vikings in slot snaps during Week 1 (15), just ahead of Justin Jefferson (10), so we should expect that to continue versus Maddox, who lined up in the slot 81.8% of his 65.7% snap share in Week 1.
Osborn is 11-7 to the Over 2.5 receptions since the start of the 2021 season. He is 6-1 to the Over in his last seven games. I risked 1 unit on Osborn Over 2.5 receptions at -150 odds on Bet MGM to win 0.66 units.
FanDuel has this at -156 odds and DraftKings at -165 odds.
Pick: K.J. Osborn Over 2.5 Receptions (Risk 1u)
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