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How to bet Ja’Marr Chase, Marcus Mariota, Jerkic McKinnon and more!

Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

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Ja’Marr Chase O/U 75.5 Receiving Yards vs. Jets

The Bengals are hungry at 0-2 and I expect Ja’Marr Chase to lead the charge versus the Jets.

NBC’s player prop model projects a 100-plus day for Chase after collecting 183 yards through two games.

Chase had 129 yards versus the Steelers in Week 1 and 54 against the Cowboys in Week 2, so this is a good bounce back spot for the Bengals star wideout.

Chase only had 32 yards versus the Jets last year but that was on four targets after a 208-yard outing versus the Ravens. It was an ideal fade spot on Chase whereas this is a play-on spot.

Chase vs Jets

Chase vs Jets

Since Chase has arrived, Joe Burrow has hit his Over 36.5 longest completion prop in 63.6% of his games and the Jets are a quality candidate to keep that going.

After Burrow’s longest completion prop moved to 37.5 and getting burned on Jacoby Brissett by one yard on TNF, I will opt to stay away from the longest completion but lean Burrow’s Over.

This season, Chase has the second-most targets (25), second-most routes run (98), fifth-most YAC (94) and ranks top 10 in receptions (15) and yards (183). He could feast versus the Jets and I like Chase’s chances to score (+115).

I would go up to 79.5 yards on this prop. I played Chase Over 75.5 yards at -115 odds.

Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (1u)

Marcus Mariota O/U 206.5 Passing Yards vs. Seahawks

Since everyone and their mom is on Kyle Pitts, the next best angle is backing the man throwing the football.

Marcus Mariota‘s passed for 411 yards through two games with 215 versus the Saints and 198 on the Rams.

NBC’s player prop model predicts 268.1 passing yards for Mariota versus the Seahawks and while I do not expect that much, I do like the value to the Over 206.5 passing yards.

Since the start of 2021, Seattle has allowed 17 out of 19 quarterbacks to pass for at least 222 passing yards. The two Unders were Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo because they split time in both games. However, in one of those games, the Lance and Jimmy G combo totaled over 300 passing yards.

Mariota

Mariota

I think there could be a lot of prop value in this game and Mariota is my favorite play. Russell Wilson threw for 340 yards at Seattle and Garoppolo had 154 yards in relief of Lance last week.

Mariota should safely land between 222 and 250 passing yards like Jameis Winston, Trevor Lawrence, Nick Foles, Taylor Heinicke and Ben Roethlisberger did last year versus the Seahawks.

I would play Mariota up to 214.5 passing yards. I gabbed the Over 206.5 passing yards at -113 odds.

Pick: Marcus Mariota Over 206.5 Passing Yards (1u)

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Jerick McKinnon O/U 14.5 Rushing Yards vs. Colts

This is probably not a prop anyone expected to see, but I don’t expect Jerick McKinnon to see the ball much, so we’re going to fade away here.

The Chiefs running back has received eight rushing attempts through two games with 12 yards on four carries versus the Chargers and 22 yards on four carries against the Cardinals. McKinnon has been used on 17% of the Chiefs rushing plays and we know how often the Chiefs like to throw the ball.

In those same games, McKinnon has run 28 routes combined and five receptions on six targets, so he’s clearly more involved with the passing game when he’s on the field.

NBC’s player prop model predicts 4.1 rushing yards, so well Under the 14.5 total. Our model doesn’t think McKinnon will make much of an impact at all.

McKinnon

McKinnon

Per PlayerProfiler, McKinnon has a 43.4% snap share, a 8.3% targets share and a 28% opportunity share. All of those rank 31st to 53rd and being apart of a committee has left McKinnon playing second-fiddle to Clyde Edwards-Helaire in rushing attempts.

Patrick Mahomes has found success against Gus Bradley‘s defenses, so I like the chances McKinnon sees four or fewer rushing attempts once again.

I played the Under 14.5 rushing yards at -110 odds and would play down to 11.5.

Pick: Jerick McKinnon Under 14.5 Rushing Yards (1u)

Chiefs (-5.5) at Colts: O/U 50.5

This is a desperation spot for the Colts after starting 0-1-1 and looking terrible in Week 2.

The Chiefs are the most bet team at most books and that is not surprising. The look ahead line was Chiefs -3 and -3.5 most places, so despite a 24-0 Colts loss to the Jaguars, the line moved just two points.

With Michael Pittman back, the running lanes for Jonathan Taylor will open up. Matt Ryan will hopefully not be asked to do as much, but having his top receiving threat will make life easier for the veteran QB.

The Colts are 9-2-1 on the ML since the start of 2021 when Taylor rushes for 80-plus yards compared to 0-7 on the ML when he goes for less than that, so expect a heavy dosage of JT. The Chiefs rushing defense hasn’t really been tested yet and last season we saw KC struggle against elite running backs.

Since the start of the 2020 season, an underdog of +5.5 is 17-5 ATS (+10.45 units) and 9-11-2 on the ML (+7.34 units). The home underdog of +5.5 is 7-3 ATS in the last 10, dating back to the 2020 season.

The +5.5 is 3-0 this season ATS and 2-1 on the ML. The Falcons versus the Saints in Week 1 was the only +5.5 line to lose outright and that came on a last-second field goal.

I played the Colts +6 before it moved to +5.5. I would advise to get the +6 (-115) for insurance at DraftKings.

Pick: Colts +6 (1u)

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Bengals (-6) at Jets: O/U 45.0

The Bengals are ticked off and I expect a quick start and a win at Met Life.

Cincy has Miami on deck after this, so a win here is a much-needed in order to avoid a 0-4 start after a Super Bowl appearance. The Bengals have played two stellar defenses thus far, the Steelers and Cowboys, two defenses that ranked atop of the NFL in a plethora of categories last year including turnovers forced.

In four regular-season games as road favorites with Joe Burrow, here is how the Bengals offense has looked in the first-half compared to where they ended up in regards to points:

9/18/22: 3 1H Points at Cowboys (finished with 17)

11/21/21: 10 1H Points at Raiders (finished with 32)

10/31/21: 17 1H Points at Jets (finished with 31)

10/17/21: 10 1H Points at Lions (finished with 34)

Burrow is 2-2 ATS and on the ML as a road favorite in his career, but 3-1 to the Bengals Team Total Over, failing to hit the Over versus the Cowboys last week.

One of those ATS and ML losses came 34-31 at the Jets last season, so in all narratives, this is a revenge and max desperation spot for the 0-2 Bengals. The Jets defense isn’t good and that’s really what this bet comes down too.

New York allowed 24 and 30 points in two games and surrendered three touchdowns to the Ravens and four touchdowns to the Browns. The Bengals scored four touchdowns last year at the Jets and I like the chances they score at least three here.

I played the Bengals Team Total Over 25.5 (-118) on FanDuel and would play this to 26.5.

Pick: Bengals Team Total Over 25.5 Points (1u)

6-POINT TEASER (-120): Bengals ML and Panthers +8.5

As stated above, I like the Bengals to win and break their losing streak, so we’ll throw them in the teaser and take the Panthers as home dogs.

When the Saints and Panthers meet, the underdog is 12-4 ATS (75%) in the last 16 meetings of this series and Carolina is in desperate need of a win.

The Panthers are 0-9 ATS and on the ML dating back to last season, so Matt Rhule‘s job is in jeopardy.

However, this is a solid spot for Carolina to win outright, if not cover the +2.5. New Orleans heads to London next week to take on the Vikings, plus the Saints are coming off a hard-fought loss against the Buccaneers, making this a classic sandwich spot as a road favorite versus a divisional opponent.

New Orleans is banged up and vulnerable right now, so take Carolina in your teasers. The Panthers are 6-3 ATS (66.6%) in the past six as an underdog versus the Saints.

Carolina won outright 26-7 at home last year as +3 home dogs and lost 18-10 at New Orleans as +7 road dogs.

I expect similar results here with Carolina either losing by eight or fewer points, with a chance at winning outright.

Pick: Bengals ML and Panthers +8.5 (1u)

The Rest of my NFL Week 3 Player Props

1.5u: Justin Jefferson Over 97.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs. Lions

1u: Jonathan Taylor Over 83.5 Rushing Yards (-115) vs. Chiefs

1u: Trevor Lawrence Under 1.5 Passing TDs (-135) vs. Chargers

1u: Tom Brady Over 23.5 Completions (-135) vs. Packers

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