$1,000,000 up for grabs. Download the NBC Sports Predictor app and play SN7 for FREE! Get started here!
Dak Prescott O/U 35.5 Pass Attempts vs. Saints
Dallas’ Mike McCarthy will not coach this Thursday Night Football matchup due to testing positive for COVID.
Dan Quinn will take over as interim. The Cowboys have a total of eight players and coaches on the COVID list as of Tuesday.
A lot of pressure is on Dallas after losing three of the last four games, but New Orleans is in a similar boat, currently riding a four-game losing skid.
Dak Prescott tossed 43 and 47 pass attempts in his last two games as Dallas is playing with more ugency. He has 47 or more attempts in the previous four Thursday Night Football appearances, per statmuse (see below).
I like Prescott to be the reason why the Cowboys win or lose on Thursday, as simple as that might sound.
The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
We opened our season with a play on Prescott’s pass attempts and I love it here as Dallas needs to air it out for several reasons. We have seen Prescott pass more over the past month as the losing has started.
New Orleans owns one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL, ranking first in yards per carry (3.4), third in total rushing yards allowed (1,011) and seventh with nine rushing touchdowns permitted.
Currently, Ezekiel Elliott is not himself, and the knee injury is bothering him worse than anticipated. Tony Pollard season has already arrived, and we should expect to see Elliott’s touches decrease week by week.
Pollard’s snap share hit 40% or higher in three of the last four games, the three highest amounts on the season. Expect him to see closer to 50%, if not more, on Thursday Night Football.
CeeDee Lamb returns and Dallas is hopeful Amari Cooper will. Both wide outs would boost the passing attack and give Dallas an incentive to pass a bit more.
The All-Star duos return would give Dallas its trio everyone was high on to start the season: Lamb, Cooper and Michael Gallup.
Weapons like Lamb, Cooper Pollard, Elliott, Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown and Cedrick Wilson should be able to fill his void as they have the past two games.
NBC’s player prop model projects Prescott for 39.6 pass attempts -- the second-most in the NFL for Week 13.
Prescott has tossed 36 or more passes in four of his last five games (80%), but only five of 10 on the season (50%). He is 9-6 (60%) to the Over since the start of 2020.
The last four quarterbacks versus the Saints hit the Under 35.5 pass attempts as New Orleans lost all four games.
Prior to that, five out of the first seven quarterbacks hit the Over 35.5 pass attempts.
I like Prescott to at least attempt to light the Saints up and, given his TNF history and pass attempt hit rates, plus the return of Cooper and Lamb.
Pick: Dak Prescott Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (1u)
Ezekiel Elliott O/U 67.5 Total Yards vs. Saints
As stated in the previous piece, it is Tony Pollard season. Whether Pollard takes the bulk of the carries or Zeke does, I do not expect Elliott to make the most of his touches.
I was hoping to let this line climb to 75.5 yards or so by kickoff, but after starting at 64.5 and reaching 70.5 on most books, I watched the number come back down to 67.5 and lower. Elliott’s rushing yards prop has set still at 45.5.
Looking over his numbers, Zeke has struggled over the past three weeks, and his knee seems to be bothering him worse than he would like to admit.
New Orleans had an outlier performance against Philadelphia when it came to defending the run, but I doubt that happens again here. They have been stout all season against the run.
Zeke recorded 51 or fewer rushing yards in five straight games with 3.56 yards per carry or worse in four of those contests. He had single-digit carries in the past two games for 19 total along with 14 total targets and 12 receptions.
Zeke’s receiving ability out of the backfield has played a larger role in the Cowboys’ game script than his ground attack. In the past few games, Dallas forgot how to run the ball after the first quarter, leading to more Prescott pass attempts.
New Orleans ranks third with 1,011 rushing yards allowed in 11 games for 91.9 yards per game. The Saints rank first with 3.4 yards per carry allowed, meaning life for Elliott should be difficult.
New Orleans allowed five rushes of 20 or more yards and none of 40-plus this season (11 games), so it is hard to break explosive runs on the Saints. Pollard appears to be the guy if one back was to break through this New Orleans defense, not Elliott.
If it makes you feel any better, Jerry Jones said Zeke is in line for a “serious load” on Thursday Night Football against the NFL’s top rushing defenses with an absent head coach. That made me laugh.
Elliott has four of his five lowest snap shares on the season these last four games, per PlayerProfiler. He also went Under his 67.5 rushing and receiving total in three straight games.
Pollard’s props are rising on every book and surpassing Elliott’s. We have been witnessing the end of Zeke in Dallas slowly, but surely. Pollard has a 40% snap share or higher in three of the last four games.
I expect that to continue versus New Orleans.
Fade Zeke’s rushing total down to 41.5 yards and take the Under 67.5 total yards.
Pick: Ezekiel Elliott Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (1u), Under 67.5 Total Yards (1u)
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
