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BAKER MAYFIELD O/U 34.5 PASS ATTEMPTS VS. TEXANS
Let’s talk about a line that is too high for a minute.
Baker Mayfield has only hit 35 or more pass attempts five times in his last 22 regular-season games (22.7%) and six of 25 (24%).
NBC’s player prop model projects value on Mayfield’s Unders with 31 pass attempts, well Under the 34.5 being offered. His passing yards also have value -- see below.
Against the Texans, where is the need for 35 passes? Houston dominated Jacksonville Week 1 and the Texans have plenty of veterans, including quarterback Tyrod Taylor.
However, Jacksonville threw the ball 76.1% of the time versus Houston with rookie Trevor Lawrencetossing 51 passes. They also trailed the entire game, but I think that is why we are seeing a higher line for Mayfield.
The Texans will not face a duo like Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt with a coach that loves his ground game as Kevin Stefanski does.
Let’s not forget Houston had a terrible rushing defense last season. The Texans allowed the most rushing yards in the league (2,548) and second-most touchdowns (24) -- plus the loss of J.J. Watt to the defensive line.
We hit Chubb’s Over 13.5 rushing attempts as our biggest bet in Week 1 and for Week 2, I am sticking with a Browns player.
With an implied spread of -12.5, the game script should be one of the most favorable of the season for Mayfield to hit his passing attempt Under prop. The Browns should hold a second-half that has no doubt and if so, Chubb and Hunt will be force-fed.
With Odell Beckham Jr. absence in Week 1, Cleveland still is adjusting in the passing attack.
The three Cleveland tight ends accounted for 10 of Mayfield’s 28 attempts in Week 1 (35.7%) and running backs five (17.8%). With those numbers, I have my doubts that Mayfield throws 34-plus times with half his volume to running backs and tight ends.
Bet on Mayfield’s Under down to 33.5. His 70% or better hit rates to the Under in the past 10 and 25 games are too enticing to pass on versus Houston.
If you believe there is value on Chubb and Hunt in this game, so do I. Entering Sunday, I will evaluate the prop market more and probably double back on a rushing or touchdown prop with one of the two backs.
Check back here and @VmoneySports on Twitter. Good luck this weekend and let’s cash!
Pick: Baker Mayfield Under 34.5 Pass Attempts (2u)
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
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JAMEIS WINSTON O/U 231.5 PASSING YARDS VS. PANTHERS
He ate that W on Sunday, all right. Jameis Winston balled out for five touchdown passes but only managed 148 yards against the Packers.
However, the Saints did not need to do much offensively with that game in hand by halftime.
With one throw, Winston caught my attention for Week 2. He tossed a 55-yard touchdown pass to Deonte Harris that traveled 50 yards in the air.
That is something Drew Brees only did zero times with the Saints. You don’t believe me? Look below at Paul Hembekides’ tweet.
This touchdown pass from Jameis Winston traveled 50 yards in the air.
— Paul Hembekides (Hembo) (@PaulHembo) September 16, 2021
Drew Brees attempted 9,421 passes for the Saints and never had one of those. pic.twitter.com/wTRbjtD9um
Time to open it up! Winston should see more than 20 pass attempts in Week 2 and the field will probably be stretched a tad more.
Versus the Panthers, Winston has plenty of experience despite a newer coaching staff.
Winston has cashed the Over 231.5 passing yards three times in his last four meetings with Carolina. He averages 306.0 passing ypg in that span.
In nine career starts versus the Panthers, Winston hit the Over five times (55.5%) with at least 202 yards in every game, per statmuse.
In Week 1, New York Jets’ rookie quarterback Zach Wilson had seven yards after the first quarter and finished with 258.
In Winston’s last full season as a starter (2019), the former Buccaneer finished with 5,109 yards, 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions.
In 2019, Winston hit the Over in 12 out of 16 (75%), including 208 and 400 passing yards versus the Panthers.
Bet the Over up to 239.5 passing yards as we should see Winston resort back to his rocket launching ways this weekend.
Pick: Jameis Winston Over 231.5 Passing Yards (1.5u)
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
ALLEN ROBINSON O/U 5.5 RECEPTIONS VS. BENGALS
Andy Dalton is still the quarterback and he faces his former team where he made the most of his career, the Cincinnati Bengals.
While I admit, we could and should see a little of Justin Fields, Allen Robinson remains the No. 1 target for either QB. With the Bears, Robinson has quietly dominated with subpar quarterback play.
Over the previous 12 regular-season and playoff games, Robinson has cashed the Over 5.5 receptions 10 times (75%).
In the last 15 regular-season games, he hit the Over 11 times (73.3%) and nine of the past 11 (81.8%), per statmuse.
The Bengals have allowed 11 of the past 15 opposing teams to have a receiver hit six or more receptions (73.3%), so there are valuable hit rates on either side.
Cincinnati is a man coverage team and we witnessed Kirk Cousins hit Adam Thielen nine times out of 10 tries and Justin Jefferson five of nine.
With that type of volume and after Robinson had 11 targets on six receptions in Week 1 against the Rams, this is a good spot to keep the tide rolling.
Last season, Robinson led the team in receiving yards 13 times during the regular season and recorded nine or more targets in 11 games -- with Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky.
Against Cincinnati’s secondary, back Robinson to hit the Over 5.5 receptions, but I would not play the Over 6.5 but leave it be.
I say that because the Over 6.5’s hit rate lowers to 33.3% in the past 12 games instead of 66.7% to the Over 5.5 in that same span.
Pick: Allen Robinson Over 5.5 Receptions (1.5u)
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
Kareem Hunt O/U 39.5 Rushing Yards vs. Texans
In two career games versus the Texans, Kareem Hunt has 100-plus rushing yards in both. Once, he played for the Texans and in the other, he played for the Chiefs, but either way, today is a great chance for another big game.
The Texans had the NFL’s worst rushing defense in the league surrendering over 2,500 yards on the ground. Hunt began 2020 in dominating fashion, hitting 40 or more rushing yards in 10 of the first 11 games, per statmuse.
He cooled off at the end of the season, but Nick Chubb also ran rampant, which is understandable for Hunt. If you play fantasy, Hunt is the guy to play today despite sharing time.
On nine touches against the Chiefs in Week 1, Hunt had 61 total yards and 33 on six carries. If Hunt goes around 8-10 carries, his averages should take us home.
NBC’s model projects 38 rushing yards from Hunt, cutting it close.
However, Hunt averaged 4.2 ypc in 2020 and he would require 10 carries to hit that number. Hunt had 10 or more carries in 12 straight games last season before only doing it once in the past five games.
Hunt had 19 carries against the Texans last season and Chubb totaled 19 as well. There is more than enough to go around, so play Hunt’s rushing yards prop up to 44.5 or back the Over 9.5 carries.
Pick: Kareem Hunt Over 39.5 Rushing Yards (1u)
When you are in the prop market, you meet some cool people. I collabed with an old colleague and partner in crime, PropStarz -- and these are the two plays we like and the NBC model also approves of -- let’s ride!
#NFL Collab with @PropStarz 🏈
— Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) September 19, 2021
1u
Justin Jefferson vs Cardinals
Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
1u
Robby Anderson vs Saints
Under 4.5 Receptions (-115)
Game logs are JJ’s career numbers and Robby with Darnold/Jets in 2019.
Both on MGM, odds vary on other books. #PlayerProps pic.twitter.com/OqR3paWEdS
Justin Jefferson O/U 71.5 Receiving Yards vs. Cardinals
NBC’s model projects him at 98.6!
Justin Jefferson had 71 yards on five receptions in Week 1 and should see a similar usage.
Versus the Bengals, Jefferson had 105 air yards with 12.0 yards per distance. He will face Marco Wilson and Robert Alford Sunday, which should be a favorable matchup. Despite the two corners playing well in the dominating victory over Tennessee, that game was at hand by halftime.
In the last 15 games, Jefferson has totaled 70 or more receiving yards in 11 out of the last 15 (73.3%) and seven of the previous eight (87.5%), per statmuse.
Over his career, Jefferson has at least 13.0 yards per catch in 13 out of 17 games (76.4%), so on five catches, plus a little YAC -- he should hit Over 71.5.
In 2020, Jefferson averaged 28 YAC per game and had five or more receptions in seven of his last nine games, including Week 1.
When Jefferson hits five or more catches, he has hit 70 or more yards every time.
Pick: Justin Jefferson Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (1u)
Robby Anderson O/U 4.5 Receptions vs. Saints
Robby Anderson has shown difficulty adjusting to the Panthers offense with Christian McCaffrey, Sam Darnold, D.J. Moore and Terrace Marshalll all in action.
In Week 1, Anderson had one catch for a 57-yard TD and three (2 deep) targets in Week 1. Moore and CMC became the two main receivers for Darnold and that is because they are the quick hitters in the offense.
Anderson remains a big-play option (57-yard TD), but the shorter routes he feasted on last season without CMC are vanishing, making Robby a one-dimensional threat.
With Darnold, Anderson has yet to reclaim a rhythm he never really had with the former Jets quarterback.
Anderson is now 11-3 to the Under 4.5 receptions since 2019, with Sam Darnold as his quarterback, per statmuse. He is 8-6 to the Over 3.5 receptions in that same span -- PropStarz and I both agree this was a 3.5 line.
We grabbed it at -115, but it is -140 and -160 in some places. Darnold gave Anderson a 33% catchable target rate in Week 1 and Robby did not have one contested catch or a drop.
NBC’s model predicts 3.7 receptions on 6.0 targets, hitting the Under. Bet it.
Pick: Robby Anderson Under 4.5 Receptions (1u)
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