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Week 4 Props: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Daniel Jones, Tim Patrick

Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

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Kyler Murray O/U 280.5 Passing Yards vs. Rams

Everyone is in love with Kyler Murray and already throwing him into the NFL MVP conversation. Well, not me.

I gave this out at 275.5 on Bet The Edge and the public is probably going to beat this play up (already have to 280.5), so wait a little longer and grab the Under when it comes back down to Earth on Sunday before the game starts.

I don’t have much faith in Murray going over 300-plus passing yards but if that is where this prop is headed, we can wait on it and get the best number later. With that being said, let’s get started.

Murray has not come close to this number in most of his career starts against the Rams and the NFC West. Murray is balling this season, there is no doubt about that, but inflated lines are quality grabs for Unders.

I say this prop is inflated because my models project Murray between 250-260 passing yards and I find it hard for him to hit that.

Yes, Murray has 289-plus passing yards in three straight games but are we really giving that much respect to the Jaguars, Vikings and Titans’ secondaries?

I’m not and neither is the NBC player prop model as it projects 253.2 passing yards for Murray.

Murray vs Stafford

Murray vs Stafford

Murray hit Under 280 passing yards in 10 out of his 12 career games versus the NFC West and three of four against the Rams, per statmuse.

Murray needed 42 and 48 passes in his two games to hit the Over 280.5 passing yards versus division opponents.

Murray vs NFC West

Murray vs NFC West

On the road, Murray has gone Under 12 of 18 times (66.7%) and seven of the last 10 (70%). He opened this season on fire, but this will be hands down the best defense and secondary he faces.

Let’s not forget to mention DeAndre Hopkins is not 100-percent, leaving Christian Kirk, Chase Edmonds and AJ Green as the next top receiving threats. Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Donald and myself, say bring it.

Pick: Kyler Murray Under 280.5 Passing Yards (2u) -- wait closer to Sunday for best number possible

James Conner O/U 34.5 Rushing Yards vs. Rams

As an Arizona Cardinal, James Conner has had 53, 26 and 43 rushing yards through three games. In his two higher rushing totals, Conner had 11 and 16 carries versus Tennessee and Jacksonville.

Arizona controlled the second half for the most part in both of Conner’s best games. Conner received 17 of his 27 carries (63%) over those two games in the final 30 minutes of each contest.

If Arizona is trailing at Los Angeles in the second half, where is the need for Conner? There is none. The Rams have beat the Cardinals in eight straight games and are 4-0 in the Kyler Murray era. Arizona will likely trail at points or most of the game.

In Conner’s one game where the score was competitive and he did not receive 10-plus carries, the former Steeler went for 26 rushing yards on eight attempts versus the Vikings. I am expecting more of that, if not fewer yards, versus a stingy Rams D.

Los Angeles has only allowed one run of 20-plus yards through three games and 278 yards (10th) on 65 attempts (T-6th). While the Rams allow 4.3 yards per carry (19th), teams rarely attempt to run on them.

Last week, the Bucs’ Ronald Jones had 11 yards on five carries and Leonard Fournette four carries for eight yards.

In Week 2, Jonathan Taylor averaged 3.4 ypc with 15 attempts and 51 yards, plus Marlon Mack added 16 yards on five carries. Conner should not see anywhere near 15 carries in this matchup.

The only running back to find success versus the Rams was the Bears’ David Montgomery, who finished with 108 yards on 16 attempts in Week 1.

Since Week 2 started, the Rams have surrendered 144 rushing yards on 39 attempts for 3.69 ypc. Conner would need another 10-plus rushing attempt game to hit 35-plus yards on that ypc average.

Chase Edmonds presents far more upside in this matchup versus the Rams using his receiving ability over Conner’s (one reception on season).

I favor Murray/Edmonds rushing ability before Conner’s as well in this contest versus the Rams’ front-seven, so overall fade Conner here as I expect his involvement in the gameplay will be limited to short yardage and obvious running downs.

I would play this down to 30.5 for one unit and 32.5 for 1.5 units. I grabbed this at -115 odds.

Pick: James Conner Under 34.5 Rushing Yards (2u)

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Tim Patrick Over 3.5 Receptions vs. Ravens

This man Tim Patrick has caught 11 of his 12 targets on the season and has slowly gained the trust of Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos coaching staff.

Patrick ranks No. 2 in catch rate (92.3%), tied 1st in true catch rate (100%) and seventh in target accuracy (8.65) over three weeks in the NFL. He averages 4.0 receptions per game to start 2021 and without KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy, the time is now for Patrick to step up.

Patrick is at the 12th ranked target premium at WR in the NFL, which means he has been getting great looks through three games if you cannot tell already. Patrick hit the Over 3.5 receptions twice this season and NBC’s model predicts 4.1 catches for the Broncos receiver.

Tim Patrick

Tim Patrick

While the Ravens seem to be a daunting opponent, this is a significant trap game for both teams. Baltimore is coming off a 66-yard field goal as time expired, while Denver is 3-0 beating three non-playoff teams.

Denver will face a Baltimore secondary already without Marcus Peters and possibly DeShon Elliott and Anthony Averett.

Patrick has caught four or more passes and 10 of the last 18 games (55.5%) dating back to the start of 2020. Patrick recorded three or more catches in 15 games during that 18-game stretch (83.3%).

I like Patrick to see enough targets to hit four receptions. I bought into the juice at -135 and would play this out to -150 for 1 unit. I would not play this at Over 4.5 receptions.

Pick: Tim Patrick Over 3.5 Receptions (1u)

Chuba Hubbard O/U 53.5 Rushing Yards vs. Cowboys

Welcome to the league, young fella.

The Panthers’ Chuba Hubbard‘s first start will be at Dallas after making a second-half start on TNF versus Houston following yet another Christian McCaffrey injury.

Hubbard finished last week with 11 carries and 53 yards. He added three receptions on five targets for 27 yards, so he clearly has a grasp on the offense. Facing the Cowboys presents a prime opportunity for Hubbard.

Through three games, Dallas allows 4.7 ypc, tied for sixth-most. Despite having the least amount of run plays attempted on them (45) and no touchdowns via the ground, I still like this prop.

Tampa Bay and Philadelphia completely abandoned the run versus Dallas (Miles Sanders had two carries), and I doubt Carolina would do that here off extended rest, having played on TNF in Week 3.

The Panthers will be more fresh than a Cowboys team who last played Philadelphia on MNF, a four-day advantage spot for Carolina.

The only two running backs to post more than five carries versus Dallas this season are Austin Ekeler and he hit 54 yards on nine attempts (6.0 ypc), plus Leonard Fournette and he had 32 yards on nine carries.

NBC’s player prop model predicts a breakout game for Hubbard. The rookie running back is projected to record 93.5 rushing yards, well Over his prop line of 53.5 and 55.5.

If Ekeler can get 50-plus yards on nine rushing attempts, I like the chance Hubbard can do damage on 12-plus attempts (rushing attempt prop set at 13.5).

He is predicted to finish behind Derrick Henry for second-most rushing yards in Week 4.

Week 4 NFL RBs

Week 4 NFL RBs

Last season, the Cowboys surrendered the second-most rushing yards (2,541), the third-highest ypc (5.0) and 20 touchdowns (T-7th). They did not fix their defensive woes with the addition of Micah Parsons.

Dallas has repeatedly not been tested on the ground in 2021. Every team they have faced has got stuck in an early shootout, but the Panthers’ defense is the best unit the Cowboys have faced thus far and vice-versa.

Expect the Panthers to commit to Hubbard early and surprise Dallas with the ground game that everyone is abandoning versus them. I would play this up to 59.5 rushing yards. I grabbed this at -115 odds.

Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 53.5 Rushing Yards (1u)

Brandin Cooks O/U 5.5 Receptions vs. Bills

Let’s run it back on Brandin Cooks. His line is still sitting at O/U 5.5 receptions after catching nine on Thursday Night Football.

With extended rest compared to the rest of the league, Houston has had time to work on the chemistry between Davis Mills and Cooks.

In Week 3, Cooks had 11 targets and caught nine passes, making him 13 of 20 with Mills under center (65%) for 1.5 games.

Cooks has hit Over 5.5 receptions in nine out of his last 14 games (64.2%) and two straight after five catches in Week 1.

Cooks is 4-2 to the Over on the road in the past six (66.7%). In the last 10 games, Cooks has hit the Over six times (60%), per NBC’s player prop model.

Brandin Cooks

Brandin Cooks

They face the Bills as +16.5-point underdogs, so it’s safe to say a passing game script will be in the cards for the Texans. Having played three competitive games in a row, there is cause for concern on a blowout, which only helps Cooks’ case.

Cooks ranks third in snap share (82.1%), first in target share (37.6%), and first in target rate (45.7%). Back him to continue getting looks.

Pick: Brandin Cooks Over 5.5 Receptions (1u)

Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!

Daniel Jones O/U O.5 Interceptions vs. Saints

Can you believe that Daniel Jones aka Danny Dimes has not thrown a pick this season and has one in his last nine games?

Pretty crazy, but here comes the first of the year.

Versus the Saints, this matchup has all the makings of an ugly game.

I mean, it’s Jones versus Jameis Winston -- we could see 3-4 interceptions combined!

However, New Orleans’ defense has been tough to start 2021. The Saints are tied No. 1 with the Cowboys for the NFL lead at six interceptions. New Orleans picked off Mac Jones three times, Aaron Rodgers two times and Sam Darnold once.

That’s at least one interception in all three games -- the same amount of time Jones has gone not throwing an interception this season (coincidence, I think not!).

NBC’s player prop model projects Jones to go a hair Under his 227.5 passing yards with 1.0 touchdown passes and 0.9 interceptions.

Jones vs Winston

Jones vs Winston

Danny nickels, I mean Dimes will be without two of his top receivers, Darius Slayton and Sterling Sheperd, who are both battling hamstring issues. That leaves Jones with Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney as the two top wide receivers.

For most of the year, Jones has had a disconnect with Golladay, while Toney is a rookie stepping into his first start. In this case, the Saints’ ball-hawking defense has an advantage over Jones.

Last year, Danny pennies, I mean Dimes, threw 11 touchdowns to 10 interceptions in 14 games. In 2021, Jones has two touchdowns and no picks in three games.

Last season, the Saints finished the regular-season tied for first in the NFL with the Steelers, Patriots and Dolphins at 18 interceptions.

While a majority of Jones’ interceptions have come at home in his career, I think this is a fair time to bet his first interception of 2021 versus the league’s No. 1 team in interceptions and a top-10 unit in third-down defense.

I bought into this at -145 odds and would not play past -160.

Pick: Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Interceptions (1u)

Tony Pollard Touchdown vs. Panthers

Sometimes, you get odd news that comes across your screen that makes you smile because of betting.

Normally, someone is potentially breaking a record, or it is their birthday or even the birth of a child forcing them to miss time. Well, one of those happened here and it came in the form of a baby.

That’s right, Tony Pollard is a papa! What does that mean? Yes, a Pollard touchdown is coming in Dallas.

Pollard has stepped up this season for the Cowboys, not overtaking Ezekiel Elliott‘s spot, but putting Zeke on notice.

Pollard has earned a share of the backfield and the pace with him in the game completely changes compared to his counterpart.

While only averaging a measly 30.9% snap share compared to Zeke’s 76.3%, Pollard’s opportunity share is the difference. Pollard has a 39.3% opportunity share and Zeke is at 57.3% -- a much closer gap meant to give kudos to Pollard’s success on the field.

Pollard has only found the endzone once this season through three games. Pollard had five scores over 16 games in 2020. He averages 6.8 ypc this season compared to 4.3 ypc, so Dallas will continually keep him involved with those types of numbers.

The Panthers have allowed four touchdowns through three weeks, but this will be the best offense they have faced, while Carolina’s defense will be the best Dallas has faced.

Expect Pollard to see 10-plus touches for the third-straight week and find the end zone (maybe do the rock-a-baby?).

I grabbed +225 odds and would play this down to +160.

Pick: Tony Pollard Touchdown (1u)

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