Four years ago, Joe Ostrowski and I launched Chicago’s first sports betting podcast. It was called “Chicken Dinner” and there was nothing else like it in the market.
We rounded up guests from all over the sports betting space and one of our big bookings that year was a man named Mark Jorstad. Jorstad was a farmer from Morris, Ill., who finished second in a major Las Vegas football contest to win over $360,000. We asked him what his secret was to picking over 65 percent against the spread for an entire season.
“I just pick the better quarterback,” he told us.
It’s so brilliant that it hurts.[[ad:athena]]
If you’ve followed the Jorstad model so far this year, you’re probably making money as most of the best NFL cover teams have very good quarterbacks. Green Bay and Seattle are a perfect 4-and-0 ATS with Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson running the show. The Packers have covered by an average of 10.9 points per game, the Seahawks by 5.0 points per game.
After those two teams, it’s Kansas City, Buffalo, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Denver and the Los Angeles Chargers all at 3-and-1 ATS. Patrick Mahomes is the best player on the planet, Josh Allen is an MVP candidate and Philip Rivers is likely a Hall of Famer. Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert are rookie first round draft picks that have endless potential.
Denver is the only outlier – they’ve been covering with Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel and Brett Rypien.
You’ve been paying a premium for years on teams like the Packers, Seahawks and Chiefs because the public loves to bet on those teams. That tax will get even higher if they continue to mow through the competition. For instance, instead of being -5.5, Green Bay might be -7.5. Instead of laying -8.5, Kansas City will be laying -10. Bookmakers have to overadjust because they don’t want to keep getting buried on the best teams in the league.
On the flip side, there are four teams that are winless against the spread this season. The Cowboys, Jets and Texans are all 0-and-4 ATS and the Titans are 0-and-3.
Always remember – good teams win, but great teams cover.
