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Maybe the top sweats available during the NFL season are the million-dollar contests requiring the bettor to pick five winners ATS. Not as easy as you might think.
The Lines are sharp, and the stakes are high.
NBC Sports Analysts Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports), Kenny Ducey (@KennyDucey), Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas), and John Venezia (@_JohnnyVTV) team up below to offer five ATS plays for this week.
Game #1: Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Play #1: Ravens -3.5
Revenge spot on Sunday Night Football in Baltimore? Sign me the freak up!
The Bengals laid the wood on the Ravens last year, winning 41-17 in Baltimore during Week 7 and 41-21 in Cincy during Week 16, the day after Christmas. Baltimore will be motivated at home on Sunday Night Football versus a division opponent who made the Super Bowl last year and beat them twice while they missed the postseason and Jackson remains without a contract.
The Ravens have gone 18-2 on the ML (90%, +7.59 units) and 12-8 ATS (+2.91 units) as at home with Harbaugh as the home head coach on primetime. He is 8-3 ATS (72.3%, +4.27 units) in the past 11 and 10-1 on the ML (90.9%, +5.1 units) in that same span (since 2014).
Game #2: Dallas @ LA Rams
Play #2: Cowboys +5
As noted by Johnny above, teams that are five or 5.5-point underdogs on the road are 11-1 ATS since 2021. We are going to double-dip here and really put that trend to the test with Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys.
The fact of the matter is that L.A. kind of stinks on the offensive side of the ball. In a shocking twist, Matt Stafford has looked poor, and this team has stumbled to a 26th-place start in total DVOA on offense. Dallas ranks fifth in defensive DVOA and should torment this struggling offensive unit while Cooper Rush should remain a solid option against a secondary allowing seven yards per pass and 249 yards per game.
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Game #3: Philadelphia @ Arizona
Play #3: Eagles -5
The Cardinals have lost and failed to cover in seven-straight home games dating back to last season.
Arizona is the lowest-scoring first half team in the NFL at 4.0 PPG and Philly ranks 1st in that same category with 23.0 PPG, while the Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in the 1H and the Eagles are 4-0 ATS in the 1H.
I think the Eagles can and will continue to get out to a fast start and be able to contain Kyler Murray and move the ball all over this unimpressive Cardinals defense.
I played the Eagles -5 and a fun fact on home underdogs of +5 is 1-7 ATS and on the ML since 2018 -- losing and failing to cover six-straight games, while home underdogs of +5.5 have lost nine-straight games outright -- we like the Eagles to handle business in the desert.
Game #4: Seattle @ New Orleans
Play #4: Seahawks +5.5
There are TWO certainties in life. 1. We as a society took Avril Lavigne for granted in the early 2000’s. 2. ALWAYS take the road dog getting 5 of 5.5. By this metric (one of the best kept secrets in NFL betting), teams in that spot are 11-1 ATS; 8-3-1 SU since the start of 2021. That aside, Seattle has some exploitable matchups with Geno Smith cooking like Russ cannot. The Seahawks have a great running back in Rashaad Penny that should exploit a Saints defense that has been underperforming. Plus, NOLA is starting Andy Dalton and likely to be without Michael Thomas. It seems like one where the Saints would not win by north of 3.
Game #5: San Francisco @ Carolina
Play #5: 49ers -6.5
There is no hotter seat in the NFL than that of Matt Rhule. The Panthers are not good, and much of that has to do with coaching. There is no such thing as a layup in betting the NFL, but I am pretty focused on backing the 49ers and laying the 6.5 points. The 49ers are second in the NFL with 3.8 sacks per game and tallied a whopping seven sacks against the Rams. The Panthers are one of the worst teams in protecting the quarterback, allowing nearly three sacks per game. Their offense is abysmal. They are second worst in the NFL in offensive FEI. They are up against the highest-ranked defense in terms of FEI rating. This game should see the Panthers struggling to score. I would not be shocked if this ended 17-6.
Have a great weekend.
Tune in to Sunday Night Football on NBC…and enjoy the sweat.
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.