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At this point, it’s fair to say I’m tired of the NFL season. I just want College Baseball to come back. The product on the field has been brutal overall, and I’m getting little to no satisfaction from this thing they call a league. If I have to be stuck watching it for the next few months, we might as well rob our bookies. It’s time for a big bounce-back week.
*Note: You have heard me say shopping around is pivotal, especially in futures betting, so make sure you look to see what book is offering the more favorable odds. The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) @ Los Angeles Rams | Over/Under 42.5
Somebody answer this question for me, “What the hell is going on with the 49ers?” Not only have they lost two weeks in a row, but they got their faces smashed in on a cobblestone road. Luckily, they get as favorable a matchup as they probably could hope for in their arch nemesis little brothers, the LA Rams. SF has won seven straight regular-season contests, will they make it eight?
What the Rams will face in the Niners is something they have never seen before, Christian McCaffrey on this offense. Of course, the Panthers played LAR just before their bye week. CMC went for 168 total yards in that one. Now that White Lightning has had a full week and a half on this roster, he figures to be much more involved in an offense that lives to have running backs succeed in the Kyle Shanahan zone run scheme. Additionally, San Fran has lived to run the ball against this LAR team that has had no answer. In five of the last seven games, SF has toted the rock at least 30 times, which has not only kept drives alive and eaten up time of possession but worn down the defense. The 49ers also have the best LT in football in Trent Williams back for this. We should expect to see the same formula. And in the passing game, they may or may not have Deebo Samuel, but this offense has enough playmakers to keep the LAR defense off balance. So long as Jimmy G plays clean football, San Fran should put up at least 23 points - which they have done in six straight contests.
As usual, the Rams have no offensive line right now - Stafford was sacked seven times in the last meeting - on top of zero running game. The only weapon or involved person on the offense is Cooper Kupp, who has managed four straight contests of at least seven catches and 118 yards (incl postseason) against this team. Of course, Kupp Daddy will get him again, but who else is stepping up? Not to mention the turnovers. Big Daddy Stafford has four straight games with a pick against SF (incl. postseason), which is a no-no considering the limited possessions they have had in this matchup. Regardless that LA is coming off a bye (3-2 in the Sean McVay era), I doubt it matters much.
As we have seen, this is a matchup nightmare for LA, and it doesn’t figure much to change. The line has held firm all week at the road team, laying 1.5 points. Per BetMGM, SF is garnering 78% of the bets and 83% of the money. If there is one public team that wins this week, I believe it is the Bay Area Bombers. San Fran should win their eighth straight against the defending Super Bowl Champs.
Prediction: Niners cover (-1.5)
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks (-3) | Over/Under 44.5
Two teams that were projected to be picked in the top 10 this year, but are now fighting for division crowns will face off on Sunday in the Pacific Northwest. Life comes at you fast. The 6-1 Giants have found ways to win games, while 4-3 Seattle is doing just fine in the post-Russell Wilson era. Which one of these NFC juggernauts keeps the gravy train rolling?
It feels like every week that the Seahawks are on my slate. Probably because of my CPOY, Geno Smith and his outlandish play. Then you throw into the mix now-favorite in the OROY race with RB Kenneth Walker and his Walter Payton-like running style. Walker’s recent play (164 yards, three TDs) in his last two starts has made Seattle a formidable and versatile offense. Even though WR Papa DK Metcalf is sidelined for this one, the Hawks have enough weapons to pull off another W against an NYG team that is allowing 144.4 rush YPG (5th most) this season. On top of that, the Giants have been a bottom-half defense in terms of getting to the QB (13 sacks). Look for Seattle to continue playing their style of football, which includes involving Tight End schemes as well as anybody in the NFL is doing right now.
Brian Daboll is that dude. I said when they hired him that not only will it be a great hire, but he will have the team competing in the next few years. I didn’t even see it coming as soon as this year, but here we are. Saquon Barkley looks like the number two overall pick again as he is only 14 yards off the NFL lead behind Nick Chubb. With the Hawks giving up the 3rd most rushing YPG (149.7), look for the Giants to stay true to form and get Barkley involved early and often. And you can’t forget about Danny Dimes on the run with his 343 yards on the ground, which has put tremendous stress on the opposing defenses. While Big Blue does not have a receiver with 200 yards this season, they have made it work by getting everybody involved. In this contest, NYG should continue a heavy dose of running because playing from a large deficit is typically not how this team is built to play (though they have made good comebacks). With budding superstar CB Tariq Woolen (4 INTS; T-1st) commanding the secondary, it could be tough sledding in the passing game. If they keep it close as they have, then it’s anybody’s contest.
I was not a fan of the line movement that pushed this 2.5 spread out to a field goal, but here we are. Regardless of the shift that has seen the Giants getting about 60% of the bets, only 52% of the handle is supporting them according to BetMGM. I have played Seattle in four straight weeks, so I am making it five in a row. The Hawks come down in a tight contest to win by 6.
Prediction: Seahawks cover (-3)
Player Props:
Cooper Kupp O7.5 receptions (-140)
Cooper Kupp O91.5 yards (-110)
KUPP DADDY!!!! I alluded to this before, Kupp has at least 7 catches and 118 yards in four straight contests (incl postseason) against the 49ers. Simply put, he is their offense. Nobody else garners anything close to decent involvement. He was targeted 19 times in the Week 4 loss, so you figure he is due for another heavy volume. Like the last matchup, look for Stafford to go to Kupp early and often in this one.
Justin Jefferson U90.5 yards (-114)
You probably got whiplash from the aggressive double-take you just did. My bad. I know this sounds strange. Superstar WR Justin Jefferson not going crazy against the Arizona Cardinals, coming off a bye? It’s not as strange as it sounds. Despite the secondary being the Achilles heel of the Zona team last year, they have found ways to successfully take out the opposing team’s Alpha WR1 this year. They erased Davante Adams in Week 2 (2 catches for 12 yards), AJ Brown in Week 5 (3/32), Tyler Lockett (2/17) and DK Metcalf (2/34) in Week 6, and of course Cooper Kupp in Week 3 (4/44). In fact, Kupp has been held to 65 yards or less in three of the last four matchups. For whatever reason, this defense has found game plans to rotate extra help against the league’s best, which may ultimately prove to happen yet again this week. The opposing team’s other options are usually the ones who rack up the stats. I hope I’m wrong, but Jefferson might be contained in this one.
Derrick Henry O99.5 yards (-115)
We’re asking ourselves if King Henry will have another 100-yard rushing day. The answer is yes. The Alabama Slamma has ripped off three straight games with triple-digit yards, and now he faces a defense he has historically dominated. In the last three games against Houston, he didn’t only eclipse the century mark, but 200+ yards in all of them! Now, he hasn’t faced them since 2020, but the Texans have only gotten worse. Henry is back to getting over 20 totes a game, so it should be the status quo here. Although I see Houston winning this game, the King should get his.
Survivor Pick:
Just terrible. Lost two straight survivor picks. Apologies to anybody I caused elimination to. We’re back on track this week with the Cowboys over the Bears. Let’s see them hose me twice in a row.
Teaser:
Week 7 was another teaser smash. You’re up SEVEN units this season if you have been playing. Let’s go again!
Giants +9 (Originally +3)
Maxine Nightingale will appreciate this one. We gotta get right back to where we started from! NYG getting exactly nine points as a road dog in two straight games sets up as another potential upset spot in the Pacific Northwest. They have no business being in some of the games they are, but here it is. The Giants are finding ways to win games. Getting near double digits is great for this team, even if they don’t win or cover outright.
Cardinals +9.5 (Originally +3.5)
Both of my teaser legs are the teams I am going against ATS this week? Sounds like risky business to me. But I mean, most of the entire NFL board is puzzi this week, so I almost have no choice. Zona has been playing well enough lately to keep a tight contest with a Vikings team that has more holes on it than a slice of Swiss cheese.
Summary:
Seahawks -3 (-110)
49ers -1.5 (-105)
Cooper Kupp O7.5 receptions (-140)
Cooper Kupp O91.5 yards (-110)
Justin Jefferson U90.5 yards (-114)
Derrick Henry O99.5 yards (-115)
Teaser: Cardinals +9.5/Giants +9 (-120)
Survivor: Cowboys
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.