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Chiefs at Jaguars prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends, and stats

Two weeks into this young NFL season people were proclaiming the Chiefs’ reign was in the rearview mirror. Patrick Mahomes and co. were 0-2 and already two games behind the Chargers. No way they were going to be able to “climb back into it”. Not so fast. As we close out Week 5 tonight in Jacksonville, the Chiefs have an opportunity to “climb back into it” and pull into a tie for first with the Broncos and the aforementioned Chargers.

For their part, the Jaguars are also defying odds per the experts. Liam Coen arrived in Jacksonville as a quarterback guru but without any head coaching experience tasked with trying to fix Trevor Lawrence and somehow lead Jacksonville back from obscurity. Again, the experts were naysayers. Well, a win tonight and the Jags keep pace with Daniel Jones and the Colts atop the AFC South.

Its the Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) tonight on Monday Night Football.

Both teams take the field with some momentum. The Chiefs blew out the Ravens, 37-20 and the Jaguars took out the 49ers, 26-21.

Lets take a deeper dive into this Week 5 matchup between these two resuscitated teams.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Game Details and How to watch the Chiefs vs. Jaguars live Monday

  • Date: Monday, October 6, 2025
  • Time: 8:15PM EST
  • Site: EverBank Stadium
  • City: Jacksonville, FL
  • Network/Streaming: ABC

Want to check out the other games on the NFL schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for the Chiefs at the Jaguars

The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Chiefs (-198), Jaguars (+164)
  • Spread: Chiefs -3.5
  • Total: 45.5 points

This game opened at Chiefs -3.0 with the Game Total set at 44.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!

Quarterback Matchup for Kansas City at Jacksonville

  • Chiefs Expected Starting QB: Patrick Mahomes
    Last Game: 9/28 vs. Baltimore - 25-37, 270yds, 4 TDs, 0 INTS, Sacked 1 times, 4 carries for 5yds
    Season: 4GP, 87-142, 939yds, 7 TDs, 1 INT, Sacked 7 times, 22 carries for 130yds
  • Jaguars Expected Starting QB: Trevor Lawrence
    Last Game: 9/28 at San Francisco - 21-31, 174yds, 1 TD, 0 INTs, Was not Sacked, 7 carries for 7yds
    Season: 84-144, 845yds, 5 TDs, 4 INTs, Sacked 3 times, 15 carries for 32yds

Chiefs at Jaguars team stats, betting trends

  • The Chiefs are on a 3-game win streak at Jacksonville
  • Travis Etienne Jr. is averaging 6.2yds/carry at home this season
  • The Chiefs’ last 3 road games have stayed UNDER the Total
  • Patrick Mahomes leads the Chiefs in rushing with 130yds
  • Jacksonville is 3-1 ATS this season
  • Kansas City is 2-2 ATS this season

Chiefs Player Injuries

  • WR Xavier Worthy (ankle) is questionable for tonight’s game
  • DT Omarr Norman-Lott (shoulder) is questionable for tonight’s game
  • CB Kristian Fulton (ankle) is questionable for tonight’s game

Jaguars Player Injuries

  • LB Yasir Abdullah (hamstring) has been declared OUT for tonight’s game
  • DE Travon Walker (wrist) is questionable for tonight’s game
  • G Wyatt Milum (knee) is questionable for tonight’s game

Rotoworld Bet Best Bets

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Take Chiefs over Jaguars on Monday Night Football
Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick preview a Monday Night Football battle between the Chiefs and Jaguars, explaining why Jacksonville is "somewhat fraudulent" and debating if Trevor Lawrence can keep up with Patrick Mahomes.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Chiefs and the Jaguars:

  • Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Kansas City Chiefs at -3.5.
  • Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 45.5.

Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest betting info & tools for NFL with player news, game predictions, player props, futures, and trends!

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

● Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
● Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
● Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
● Trysta Krick (@Trista_Krick)