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Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, trends, and stats

Sunday’s matchup in Denver between the Broncos (8-2) and the Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) carries with it massive ramifications for both teams. It is arguably the biggest game for Denver since the Super Bowl 50 season as Bo Nix and co. look to cement their hold on the AFC West and a loss by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs means no repeat as division winner for the first time in a decade and maybe no playoffs at all. The Broncos have won seven in a row and hold a one-game lead in the division over the Chargers and two over the Chiefs. Needless to say, its important for both sides.

The Chiefs arrive at Mile High following their bye week. KC and Mahomes under Andy Reid are 9-3 coming off their bye during the regular season. Mahomes is 15-2 following a loss in the regular season. Those stats are impressive. Denver combats them with one of their own. Sean Payton is 10-3 against Reid when coaching a team with a winning record.

Matchup to watch: Denver pass rush vs. Chiefs’ offensive line
Denver leads the NFL with 46 sacks, 14 more than any other team, and is on pace to set an NFL single-season record. Does Kansas City counter that relentless rush with a heavy dose of Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith (assuming Isiah Pacheco is out)? Or does this become a Travis Kelce game? The future Hall of Fame Tight End has averaged six receptions and 77 receiving yards in 20 career games against Denver.

Grab your popcorn. This should be a good one. Lets get better prepared for it with a deeper dive into the data.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Game Details and How to watch the Chiefs vs. Broncos live Sunday

  • Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
  • Time: 4:25PM EST
  • Site: Empower Field at Mile High
  • City: Denver, CO
  • Network/Streaming: CBS

Want to check out the other games on the NFL schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for the Chiefs at the Broncos

The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs (-205), Denver Broncos (+170)
  • Spread: Chiefs -3.5
  • Total: 43.5 points

This game opened at Chiefs -4.0 with the Game Total set at 44.0.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!

Quarterback Matchup for Kansas City at Denver

  • Chiefs Starting QB: Patrick Mahomes
    Last Game: 11/2 at Buffalo - 15-34, 250yds, 0TDs, 1INT, Sacked 3 times, 1 carry for 5yds rushing
    Season: 9GP, 204-316, 2349yds, 17TDs, 5INTs, Sacked 17 times, 47 carries for 285yds rushing
  • Broncos Starting QB: Bo Nix
    Last Game: 11/6 vs. Las Vegas - 16-28, 150yds, 1TD, 2INTs, Sacked 1 time, 5 carries for -2yds rushing
    Season: 10GP, 213-350, 2126yds, 18TDs, 8INTs, Sacked 10 times, 47 carries for 205yds rushing

Chiefs at Broncos team stats, betting trends

  • The Broncos have won 16 of their last 19 games at home
  • The Chiefs have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC West teams
  • The Chiefs are 5-4 ATS this season
  • The Broncos are 4-5-1 ATS this season
  • Each of the last 4 games between the Chiefs and the Broncos have stayed UNDER the Total
  • The OVER has cashed just 3 times (3-7) in Denver’s 10 games this season
  • The OVER has cashed just 3 times (3-6) in Kansas City’s 9 games this season

Chiefs Player Injuries

  • RB Isiah Pacheco (knee) is questionable for Sunday’s game
  • RT Jawaan Taylor (ankle) is questionable for Sunday’s game
  • S Nazeeh Johnson (shoulder) has been designated to return from the IR but has yet to be activated

Broncos Player Injuries

  • LB Alex Singleton (groin) is doubtful for Sunday’s game
  • CB Patrick Surtain II (pectoral) is questionable for Sunday’s game
  • RB J.K. Dobbins (foot) is questionable for Sunday’s game
  • WR Marvin Mims Jr. (concussion) is questionable for Sunday’s game
  • TE Nate Adkins (undisclosed) is questionable for Sunday’s game
  • LB Jonah Elliss (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday’s game

Rotoworld Best Bets

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Chiefs and the Broncos

  • Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Kansas City Chiefs at -3.5.
  • Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the OVER on the Game Total of 43.5.

Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest betting info & tools for NFL with player news, game predictions, player props, futures, and trends!

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

● Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
● Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
● Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
● Trysta Krick (@Trista_Krick)