Prior to the season, the “experts” would have laughed if you told them Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts (3-0) would still be undefeated even three games into the season…but here we are. Sunday afternoon Jones and co. are in Southern California for their first true test of the season on the road as they take on Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams (2-1).
No question Jones is an early contender for Comeback Player of the Year. After laboring for six seasons in New York, the veteran has flourished under Shane Steichen throwing for three touchdowns and running for three others while not turning the ball over at all. At the same time, Indy’s defense has been ball-hawking, intercepting four passes and forcing a fumble. It has all added up to a 3-0 start and a surprising lead in the AFC South.
The Rams have to be shaking their heads following Sunday’s 33-26 loss in Philadelphia to the Eagles. Sean McVay’s squad had two field goals blocked in the final handful of minutes of the fourth quarter to squander a 26-21 lead and drop their first game of the season in the process. Matthew Stafford’s health was a question mark heading into the season, but the 37-year-old is off to a strong start with five touchdown passes through three games.
Lets take a closer look at the Week 4 matchup and perhaps find a sweat or two.
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Game Details and How to watch the Colts at the Rams live Sunday
- Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025
- Time: 4:05PM EST
- Site: SoFi Stadium
- City: Inglewood, CA
- Network/Streaming: FOX
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Game odds for the Indianapolis Colts at the Los Angeles Rams
The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Indianapolis Colts (+154), Los Angeles Rams (-185)
- Spread: Rams -3.5
- Total: 49.5 points
This game opened at Rams -4.5 with the Total set at 47.0.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Quarterback Matchup for Indianapolis at Los Angeles
- Colts Expected Starting QB: Daniel Jones
Last Game: 9/21 at Tennessee – 18-25 (72%), 228yds, 1 TD, 0 INTs, Was not Sacked, 4 carries for 27yds
Season: 3GP, 63-88 (71.6%), 816yds, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, Sacked 2 times, 17 carries for 55yds - Rams Expected Starting QB: Matthew Stafford
Last Game: 9/21 at Philadelphia – 19-33 (57.6%), 196yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, Sacked 1 time
Season: 3GP, 63-95 (66.3%), 739yds, 5 TDs, 2 INTs, Sacked 5 times, 6 carries for -8yds
Colts at Rams team stats, betting trends
- NFC West teams have won 4 of their last 5 games against AFC South sides
- The Colts have failed to cover in their last 3 road games
- The OVER is 4-0-1 in the Colts’ last 5 games
Colts Player Injuries
- WR Alec Pierce (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Kenny Moore II (calf) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game
Rams Player Injuries
- LG Steve Avila (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Nick Hampton (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
Rotoworld Bet Best Bets
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Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper): Game Total UNDER 49 (+100)
The pass rush for the Rams will be the first real test for this offensive line in pass blocking which may limit the Colts’ offense in this contest. Similarly the Colts’ tackling and coverage has been much better than anticipated so far this season which will make the going somewhat slow and fuel an under on this inflated total.
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): Jonathan Taylor Under Receiving Yards
Last game, Taylor grabbed two receptions for 13 yards to start the third quarter drive out of the break against the Titans, already up 20-6. Those two catches put him at 3-0 to the Over on his receiving yards prop. I was on the Over in Week 2, but played the Under in Week 3, so you can guess where I am going in Week 4.
In three games, the Rams’ defense has allowed eight receptions for 25 yards to running backs. Saquon Barkley had four receptions for nine yards, Tennessee’s backs had two catches for -1 yard and Dare Ogunbowale of Houston hit 17 yards on two receptions in Week 1, while his fellow running backs had zero catches. I like the chances Taylor gets bottled up in a bounce-back spot for the Rams and road underdog role for the Colts.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Colts and the Rams:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Indianapolis Colts at +3.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 49.0.
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Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
● Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
● Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
● Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
● Trysta Krick (@Trista_Krick)
