Vaughn Dalzell shares his best bets for the NFL’s Week 13 slate, including Thursday Night Football, the Patriots’ first half against the Chargers, and two totals in Jets vs Falcons, and Bucs vs Panthers matchups.
Seahawks at Cowboys (-9): O/U 47.5
Dallas’ defense smothered Washington on Thanksgiving, while San Francisco did the same to Seattle, so let’s ride that train again.
Seattle’s offense has sputtered recently with 16 or fewer points in three of the past four games and managed 24 or less in seven of the past eight. In seven of those eight games, the Seahawks scored a touchdown on 11.5% of its possessions and went three-and-out 39.7% of the time, ranking 30th in both.
Geno Smith is dealing with an elbow injury that was evident against San Francisco (180 yards, 6 sacks, 1 INT), but reports are he’s “night and day” compared to last week.
Even when Smith was healthy, the offense wasn’t efficient. The Seahawks average 18.6 PPG on the road (22nd) and made the trip to Dallas after being on the West Coast for two straight weeks versus the Rams (17-16 loss) and 49ers (31-13 loss).
Dallas ranks 4th in the NFL with 16.8 points per game allowed this season and second with 12.0 PPG at home over five games. Dallas will have back-to-back home games for the first time all season and it comes in back-to-back primetime situations.
I like that for the Cowboys who have won three straight since the loss at the Eagles, and five of the past six since losing at the 49ers. Dallas held all five other teams during that span to 20 or fewer points and four of them to 17 or less.
Give me the Seattle Team Total Under 19.5 (-125) down to 18.5 (-110).
Pick: Seahawks Team Total Under 19.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Chargers (-5.5) at Patriots: O/U 40.5
The Chargers have alternated home and road games over the last seven weeks with the previous contest being a home loss on Sunday Night Football to the Ravens.
Los Angeles now goes back to the East Coast to take on a disappointing Patriots squad. New England will be switching QBs from Mac Jones to Bailey Zappe, as the switch was made at halftime of the 10-7 loss to the Giants.
Zappe will now have a full week of practice as the starter, which will benefit the Patriots, at least early on in this game. The Chargers’ Justin Herbert has two career games against the Patriots and tossed two touchdowns to four interceptions with 49.1 and 51.4% completion percentages.
The Chargers have only led by four or more points in two of five road games this season (MIN, NYJ) with a 2-3 record overall away from home. I played the Pats 1H +3.5 at -120 odds and would go down to +3.
The QB switch and home field should help New England out to some degree, plus Los Angeles doesn’t have a strong rush defense ranking bottom 10.
Pick: Patriots 1H +3.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Falcons (-2.5) at Jets: O/U 34.0
We are running it back on the lowest total of the week once again, this time between the Falcons and Jets, as totals of 37 or lower are 9-1 this season (90%) to the Under.
The QB matchup is Tim Boyle versus Desmond Ridder, which points towards an Under. In Boyle’s first and only start, the Jets managed 40 net yards and two first downs through three-quarters of action.
Boyle posted 4.7 yards per pass attempt and two interceptions in the loss, pushing his record to 0-4 as an NFL starter. In Ridder’s last start, he tossed two interceptions himself, plus the Falcons’ QB has one touchdown pass in five road games this year.
New York’s defense allowed back-to-back games of 30-plus points, but that came to Buffalo and Miami. Atlanta hasn’t scored more than 25 points in a win this season and averages 15.0 points per game on the road (6th-worst), which is around New York’s 15.2 points per game at home (3rd-worst).
Give me the Under 34.0 at -115 odds down to whatever the closing line is.
Pick: Under 34 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Panthers at Buccaneers (-5): O/U 37.0
The same theory for the Under 37 totals applies here, plus this is a divisional game, which usually bodes well for an Under.
Carolina also fired its head coach, so Tampa Bay will be hosting an interim head coach in his first start.
The Panthers’ offense has struggled all season to move the sticks behind No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young and 40 sacks taken (4th). The Bucs’ rushing attack has been bottom-five in the NFL, along with Mayfield taking 26 sacks (18th), so both offenses should see plenty of third-and-longs.
Mayfield has thrown an interception in three straight games and has been sacked 13 times in that span. Tampa Bay has not scored more than 20 points in the last seven games (since Oct. 1), and despite being -5.5 point favorites, I doubt the offense finds much success.
Carolina’s last two road games combined for 27 and 29 points, while Tampa Bay’s divisional games have totaled 35 and 28 points thus far. Give me the Under 37 between the Panthers and Bucs down to the closing line.
Pick: Under 37 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 51-23-1 (68.8%) +25.63 units
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