Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his three best bets for the NFL Week 15 slate, including the Steelers at Colts, the Patriots hosting the Chiefs, and the Falcons vs Panthers.
Steelers at Colts (-1.5): O/U 42.0
The Steelers have suffered a three-game losing streak every year since 2018, but they have yet to this season. Mike Tomlin and company have dropped two straight to the Cardinals and Patriots, who are a combined 6-20, so I do expect him to get his team up for this spot.
The Colts are 8-of-36 on third-downs (22.2%) since their Week 11 bye week and that is the worst in the NFL during that span. That won’t bode well versus a Pittsburgh defense that is getting disrespected by the media this week.
On the other side, Indy’s defense ranks 26th in pressure rate (32%), 29th in blitz rate (17.6%), and last in man coverage (9.8%), plus this game is in a dome, which will help Pittsburgh’s offense.
The Steelers have allowed 24 or fewer points in nine-straight games and when coming off a loss, Pittsburgh permitted 22, 10, 16, 10, and 21 points (15.8 ppg), going 4-1 on the ML in those games.
Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS on the road this season, an NFL-worst, but I do not expect them to go 0-8. On the other hand, the Colts are 4-0 ATS as a favorite and they have all been short favorites, so the same concept. Give me the Steelers +1.5 and sprinkle the ML (+105).
Pick: Steelers +1.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Panthers at Falcons (-3): O/U 33.5
Atlanta and Carolina meet for part of the NFC South showdown and the clash gives us the lowest O/U total of the weekend at 33.5 to 34.0.
The Panthers have lost six consecutive games and scored 10 or fewer points in five of those contests. The No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young hasn’t reached 200 passing yards in any of the six losses during that span.
The Panthers have scored one touchdown outside of the red zone, the fewest in the league, and only 18.9% of possessions even reach the red zone (last). Carolina failed to reach the red zone last week, for the first time all season.
Carolina was 1-of-7 on fourth-downs last week and they will see plenty of them again because Atlanta has the 3rd-best third-down defense at 33.5%. The Falcons’ offense has scored 24, 13, and 25 points since the bye week.
Atlanta beat Carolina in Week 1, 24-10, and lost 24-10 Young recorded 146 passing yards. Not much has changed since then.
Desmond Ridder and Atlanta should win, especially since the NFC South is a three-team race, but I can’t trust the Falcons on the road (2-4), who have only beaten the Bucs (16-13) and Jets (13-8). Give me the Under 34 at -125 odds down to 33.0.
Pick: Under 34.0 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Chiefs (-8) at Patriots: O/U 37.5
Two of the most legendary head coaches take the sideline when the Chiefs look for another bounce-back spot as a -8 point favorite, this time at the New England Patriots.
The Chiefs have lost three of the past four games against the Packers, Eagles, and Bills with a lone win over the Raiders. Both. Green Bay and Buffalo are playing their best football of the season, so I won’t fault Kansas City for those losses, nor a loss to the Eagles.
The Patriots average 13.0 points per game (last) and that is good news for the Chiefs who are 7-1 ATS in the last eight games when allowing 20 or fewer points. New England has scored 17 or fewer points in 10 out of 13 games and 10 or less in five of the past eight losses.
New England was without Rhamondre Stevenson, Demario Douglas, DeVante Parker, and Kayshon Boutte last week, and I can’t expect the Patriots’ offense to replicate its 21-point effort against Pittsburgh.
Kansas City has had a great defense all season and should give Patrick Mahomes and company enough short fields to work with. I played Kansas City -8 at -110 odds and would go out to -10.
Pick: Chiefs -8 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 54-31-1 (63.5%) +18.72 units
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