Vaughn Dalzell shares how he’s attacking the Week 6 NFL slate, featuring Saints versus Texans, 49ers versus Browns, plus Cowboys at Chargers and Giants at Bills on primetime.
49ers (-9.5) at Browns: O/U 36.0
The total in this game opened at 41.5 and was already the lowest total on the board, while the spread was 49ers -3.5. Both numbers are long gone.
Now the total is 36.0 and spread -9.5 for the road-favorite 49ers all because the Browns are starting its third different QB this season. This time it’s P.J. Walker who is called up off the practice squad to replace Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR).
Cleveland is coming off a bye week and boy did they need it. Cleveland managed three points at home versus Baltimore. The Browns managed 166 total yards on 65 plays (2.6 yards per play) and lost the turnover battle 3-1. With Watson, Cleveland scored 24, 22, and 27 points compared to 3 with DTR and no Chubb.
Since 2019, the Browns have scored 17, 24, 10, and 13 points following a bye week, so not exactly the numbers you’d expect with an extra week of preparation.
I think Cleveland struggles out the gate and the 49ers shut the Browns out in the first quarter. I played the Browns 1Q Team Total Under 2.5 and 0.5 at -110 and -120 odds.
The 49ers held three out of five opponents scoreless in the first quarter and the other two made a field goal.
Pick: Browns 1Q Team Total Under 0.5 (1.5u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Saints (-1.5) at Texans: O/U 42.5
Since Dennis Allen was named defensive coordinator for the Saints, New Orleans has won 11 of 14 games against rookie QBs, dating back to 2015.
Houston’s rookie QB CJ Stroud owns an NFL record 186 passing attempts without an interception to start a career and his interception prop is +124 to throw a pick and -160 to no picks. I don’t hate the yes here as the Saints are tied for third with seven INTs.
The Saints defense enters this contest having held 11 of its last 12 regular season opponents to 20 or fewer points. The Texans’ team total is set at 20.5.
The only team to break 21 or more points on New Orleans was Tampa Bay this season (26 points) and two of those scores came with under 2:30 remaining in each half. Houston scored 20 or less in all three losses with 30 and 37 points in the two wins.
The Texans’ two wins came versus the Steelers, who always play down to their competition, and the Jaguars, who Houston owns. The Texans lost to the Ravens, Colts, and Falcons. I think the Saints belong in that class as well.
I played New Orleans on the ML at -125 odds and Houston’s Team Total of Under 20.5 at -110 odds. I would go out to -140 odds on both and 19.5 for the Texans’ Team Total.
Pick: Texans Team Total Under 20.5 (1u), Saints ML (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Giants at Bills (-15): O/U 44.0
Daniel Jones was ruled out for this matchup, so the Giants will start Tyrod Taylor at QB on Sunday Night Football. Buffalo is now a -15 home favorite.
Taylor hasn’t started since 2021 when he played six games for the Texans. In those six games, Houston went scoreless in the first quarter three times and held to a field goal in one of the other three.
I am not sure New York scores in the first quarter without Jones or RB Saquon Barkley, OT Andrew Thomas, or C John Michael Schmitz Jr., who are all out for this game. Plus, TE Darren Waller and RT Evan Neal are questionable, so the Giants’ offense is flat-out banged up.
Buffalo held the Jets and Commanders scoreless in the first quarter, the two worst offenses they’ve faced all season. The Giants are arguably worse than both the Jets and Commanders.
New York averages 0.6 points per first quarter this season, which is tied for the worst in the NFL with Minnesota. The Giants have scored three first-quarter points in three road games this season (tied for last).
I will fade the Giants offense early and take the New York 1Q Team Total Under 0.5 Points at -130 odds, good out to -150.
Pick: Giants 1Q Team Total Under 0.5 (Risk 1.5u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Cowboys (-1.5) at Chargers: O/U 51.0
We have the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers on deck for Monday Night Football and both teams are in interesting spots.
Dallas was embarrassed on Sunday Night Football against San Francisco and you better believe there will be a different effort on Monday Night at Los Angeles.
Los Angeles is coming off two-straight wins against Minnesota (28-24) and Las Vegas (24-17) before the bye week. The Chargers opened the season 0-2, so the bye week was a little wrench thrown into their hot streak.
The Chargers are expected to get Austin Ekeler here off the bye week but are without WRs Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton, and possibly TE Donald Parnham. If Ekeler is rusty, the Chargers will struggle against a motivated Cowboys defense.
The Chargers have scored 24 or more points in all four games but the defense allowed 24 or more points in three of four. Dallas scored 30-plus points in all three wins. The Chargers have lost nine straight dating back to 2021 when its opponent scored 30-plus, so that’s the target for Dallas.
I think Dallas’ offense could find a groove here and the defense could deliver some takeaways. I played Dallas on the ML at -125 odds and would go out to -150.
Pick: Cowboys ML (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 25-13-1 (65.7%) +10.8 units
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