Vaughn Dalzell shares his best two bets for Week 9 of the NFL, including the Cardinals at Browns, Giants at Raiders, and Colts at Panthers.
Cardinals at Browns (-12.5): O/U 38.0
Arizona scored more than 14 points in six out of eight games this season, but those all came with Josh Dobbs under center.
The former Steelers QB was traded from the Cardinals to the Vikings this week, so the new QB for Arizona will be rookie Clayton Tune out of Tulane or Kyler Murray returning from an injury that has kept him on the sideline all season.
The Cleveland Browns have one of the best defenses in the NFL and are looking for a bounce-back week after losing at Seattle in the final minutes.
Cleveland held the Bengals and Titans to 3 points each this season at home and the 49ers to 17 points. The Ravens are the only team to score more than 17 points in Cleveland this season.
The Browns gave up 38 and 24 over the past two weeks and I think that gets course-corrected here with a dominant effort from Cleveland at home. I grabbed the Cardinals Team Total Under 14.5 at -130 odds and would go down to 13.5 for -110 or better.
We’re also going to throw in the Cardinals 1Q Team Total Under 0.5 also at -130 odds.
Cleveland held Cincy and Tennessee scoreless in the first quarter at home, while Baltimore and San Francisco scored. Arizona’s offense is worse than all four and the Cardinals are coming off seven-straight West Coast games.
Pick: Cardinals Team Total Under 14.5 (1u), Cardinals 1Q Team Total Under 0.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Giants at Raiders (-1): O/U 37.5
The Raiders fired their General Manager, Head Coach, and benched their quarterback after an embarrassing Monday Night Football outing against the Lions.
Despite all that, Las Vegas is still favored by -1.5 points at home against the New York Giants, which is telling. The Giants are 2-6 and coming off an extremely physical OT loss versus the Jets (13-10).
New York is coming off two home games and hasn’t played on the West Coast since Weeks 2-3 (Cardinals, 49ers). The Giants are 1-6 in the last seven games with a lone win over the Commanders and plainly put, New York has not looked good at any point all season.
Las Vegas had its chances to cover and win versus Detroit, but Jimmy Garoppolo played one of the worst games if not the worst game of his career. Enter Aidan O’Connell.
The Raiders likely wanted these changes for weeks and with all the firings, Las Vegas is in a good spot to win and “feel” like the culture is changing.
When in fact, they just beat the lowly Giants who don’t know what to expect out of the Raiders. Give me Las Vegas on the ML at -120 odds. Daniel Jones is back for New York and they are still road underdogs. Jones is 1-4 as a starter with two touchdowns and six interceptions.
Pick: Raiders ML (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Colts (-2.5) at Panthers: O/U 44.0
We hit on the Carolina Panthers last week to cover and earn their first win of the season against the Houston Texans, and as I said, we will run it back here in Carolina.
The Panthers could and should go on a 3-0 ATS and ML run, starting with last week against Houston. The Colts and Bears are ideal opponents to put together a winning streak and give confidence to rookie QB Bryce Young.
For the Colts, Indy is coming off a 38-27 home loss to the Colts and now goes on the road for an out-of-division matchup. The Saints were physical with the Saints, and we should expect the Panthers to attempt to wear down the Colts.
Carolina is 11-1 in the last 12 games versus AFC South opponents, while Indy is 3-12 in the last 15 games and 1-4 in the past five versus NFC South teams.
I played the Panthers +3 at -120 odds and sprinkled the ML at +125. Prior to the regular season, Carolina was a -2.5 favorite here, and I am not sure they should be flipped to +2.5 and +3. Carolina can win. Shop around for +3.
Pick: Panthers +3 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 39-21-1 (65%) +15.4 units
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