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One of the matches taking place in the English Premier League Saturday would have looked like a foregone conclusion three months ago.
Now, given the trajectory of the home team, Saturday’s tilt between Newcastle United and Liverpool is one of the more fascinating fixtures of Matchweek 35.
Below you will find an overlay from this match available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
NEWCASTLE v. LIVERPOOL – DOUBLE CHANCE – Newcastle United or Draw (+200)
Newcastle’s turnaround this season has been simply staggering, going from a team that could not earn any positive result for the first five months of the season to a squad that looks as though they can compete with anyone in the Premier League.
The form reversal has been obvious in terms of points, as the Magpies have won ten of their last fourteen EPL contests, however the more noticeable change for Eddie Howe’s team has been the sense of belief surrounding the club.
Following a myriad of transactions during the January transfer window that included the acquisition of forward Chris Wood (who surprisingly has just two goals in fourteen appearances for NUFC), the feeling around St. James’ Park changed from one of dread to one of hope.
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With their supporters behind them, Newcastle have seen their defense firm up (they have given up more than one goal in an EPL game just once since December 27) and their goal scoring jump to a new level (at least one goal scored in an EPL game in all but two matches since December 27).
Saturday’s match at home against Liverpool is obviously going to be an uphill battle given the historic run the Reds have been on, yet in a way that may work to Newcastle’s advantage.
Liverpool cannot afford to drop points at this stage in the game if they are to run down Manchester City for the Premier League title, possibly allowing Eddie Howe’s team the luxury of “playing with house money.”
It is not the likeliest of outcomes, but given the run they have been on, Newcastle has as good a chance as any team to spring an upset – or play to a draw – against Liverpool.
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